DHL Stock Analysis: Deutsche Post | XETRA
Integrated Freight & Logistics | XETRA, Germany | Market Cap: 62.924m EUR | 12M Return: 45.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 103M
EPS Trend: -30.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -27.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Deutsche Post AG, headquartered in Bonn and incorporated in 1995, is a German-based mail and logistics group operating across Europe, the Americas, Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Africa. Its business is organized into five segments: Express (time-definite courier services), Global Forwarding & Freight (air, ocean, and overland freight forwarding), Supply Chain (warehousing, transport, and value-added logistics solutions), eCommerce (parcel delivery and cross-border services), and Post & Parcel Germany (domestic mail, parcels, and related services such as registered mail and redirection).
The group operates within the GICS Air Freight & Logistics sub-industry, spanning competitive express parcel and contract logistics markets alongside its legacy postal business. In Germany, the Post & Parcel segment operates under a regulated universal service obligation, while its international logistics operations are exposed to global trade volumes and the structural growth of cross-border e-commerce shipping.
- Global trade weakness pressures Express and Forwarding freight volumes
- Post & Parcel Germany margins squeezed by Amazon and Hermes competition
- Supply Chain revenue stabilizes as contract renewals offset industrial slowdown
| Net Income: 3.53b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.51% < 20% (prev 1.66%; Δ 0.85% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 8.97b > Net Income 3.53b |
| Net Debt (36.1b) to EBITDA (11.5b): 3.13 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.10 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.13b) vs 12m ago -4.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.03% > 18% (prev 10.40%; Δ 0.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 112.9% > 50% (prev 118.3%; Δ -5.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.97 > 6 (EBIT TTM 6.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.34b) |
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 23.8b - Total Current Liabilities 21.7b) / Total Assets 74.4b |
| B: 0.28 (Retained Earnings 20.6b / Total Assets 74.4b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 6.65b / Avg Total Assets 73.0b) |
| D: 0.46 (Book Value of Equity 23.4b / Total Liabilities 50.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.18 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.05 (Receivables 11.8b/11.6b, Revenue 82.5b/84.7b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 10.40% / 11.03%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 82.5b / 84.7b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 3.53b - CFO 8.97b) / TA 74.4b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 57.06 with a total of 1,612,837 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.49%, over one month by +9.44%, over three months by +25.01% and over the past year by +45.49%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 55.60 (which is 2.6% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Deutsche Post has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 18.1942
P/E Forward = 16.7224
P/S = 0.7577
P/B = 2.7216
P/EG = 2.7939
Revenue TTM = 82.5b EUR
EBIT TTM = 6.65b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 11.5b EUR
Long Term Debt = 9.05b EUR (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 5.48b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 43.8b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.8b
Net Debt = 36.1b EUR (calculated: Debt 43.8b - CCE 7.79b)
Enterprise Value = 99.0b EUR (62.9b + Debt 43.8b - CCE 7.79b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.97 (Ebit TTM 6.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.34b)
EV/FCF = 15.98x (Enterprise Value 99.0b / FCF TTM 6.19b)
FCF Yield = 6.26% (FCF TTM 6.19b / Enterprise Value 99.0b)
FCF Margin = 7.51% (FCF TTM 6.19b / Revenue TTM 82.5b)
Net Margin = 4.28% (Net Income TTM 3.53b / Revenue TTM 82.5b)
Gross Margin = 11.03% ((Revenue TTM 82.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 73.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 10.96% (prev 12.09%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.33 (Enterprise Value 99.0b / Total Assets 74.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.05% (Interest Expense 1.34b / Debt 43.8b)
Taxrate = 29.58% (1.57b / 5.31b)
NOPAT = 4.68b (EBIT 6.65b * (1 - 29.58%))
Current Ratio = 1.10 (Total Current Assets 23.8b / Total Current Liabilities 21.7b)
Debt / Equity = 1.87 (Debt 43.8b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.4b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.13 (Net Debt 36.1b / EBITDA 11.5b)
Debt / FCF = 5.82 (Net Debt 36.1b / FCF TTM 6.19b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 22.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.83% (Net Income 3.53b / Total Assets 74.4b)
RoE = 16.07% (Net Income TTM 3.53b / Total Stockholder Equity 22.0b)
RoCE = 21.45% (EBIT 6.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 22.0b + L.T.Debt 9.05b))
RoIC = 8.66% (NOPAT 4.68b / Invested Capital 54.1b)
WACC = 5.58% (E(62.9b)/V(107b) * Re(7.98%) + D(43.8b)/V(107b) * Rd(3.05%) * (1-Tc(0.30)))
Discount Rate = 7.98% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -83.81 | Cagr: -2.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.49% ; FCFF base≈6.00b ; Y1≈6.45b ; Y5≈7.82b
[DCF] Fair Price = 75.02 (EV 120b - Net Debt 36.1b = Equity 84.0b / Shares 1.12b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 8.50% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -30.35 | EPS CAGR: -2.87% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -27.17 | Revenue CAGR: -0.72% | SUE: -0.70 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.89 | Chg30d=+15.24% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.80 | Chg30d=+11.15% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.43 | Chg30d=+3.20% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+12.8% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.75 | Chg30d=+1.64% | Revisions=+30% | GrowthEPS=+9.4% | GrowthRev=+3.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +59% (up=12, down=2)