UHR Stock Analysis: The Swatch | SW
Luxury Goods | SW, Switzerland | Market Cap: 9.019m CHF | 12M Return: 13.6% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 19.8M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -92.3%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Swatch Group AG is a Swiss-based company that designs, manufactures, and sells finished watches, jewelry, and watch movements and components across global markets. It operates through two main segments: Watches & Jewelry and Electronic Systems, with the latter covering electronic components and sports timing activities. Beyond core production, the group also handles assembly, R&D, logistics, distribution, customer service, and ancillary businesses such as real estate, finance, and reinsurance.
The company maintains one of the most extensive brand portfolios in the Swiss watch industry, spanning ultra-luxury (Breguet, Blancpain, Jaquet Droz), high-end (Omega, Glashütte Original, Harry Winston), mid-range (Longines, Rado, Union Glashütte, Mido, Hamilton), and entry-level (Tissot, Certina, Swatch, Flik Flak) price tiers. Founded in 1983 and headquartered in Biel/Bienne, Switzerland, Swatch Group operates within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods) and is notable for its high degree of vertical integration-producing much of its own components, movements, and cases internally, a model that distinguishes it from many peers who rely on third-party suppliers.
- Greater China demand weakness pressures Omega and Longines revenue
- Strong Swiss franc compresses margins on euro and dollar sales
- Apple Watch competition erodes Swatch entry-level market share
| Net Income: 9.00m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.58 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 133.6% < 20% (prev 135.3%; Δ -1.71% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 631.0m > Net Income 9.00m |
| Net Debt (-1.12b) to EBITDA (560.0m): -2.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.70 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.0m) vs 12m ago 0.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 59.16% > 18% (prev 82.55%; Δ -23.39% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 46.91% > 50% (prev 46.83%; Δ 0.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 28.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 141.0m / Interest Expense TTM 5.00m) |
| A: 0.63 (Total Current Assets 9.74b - Total Current Liabilities 1.26b) / Total Assets 13.5b |
| B: 0.99 (Retained Earnings 13.4b / Total Assets 13.5b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 141.0m / Avg Total Assets 13.5b) |
| D: 5.74 (Book Value of Equity 11.4b / Total Liabilities 1.98b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 13.46 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 618.0m/598.0m, Revenue 6.34b/6.35b) |
| GMI: 1.40 (GM 82.55% / 59.16%) |
| AQI: 0.95 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 6.34b / 6.35b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 9.00m - CFO 631.0m) / TA 13.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at CHF 166.55 with a total of 154,005 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -17.96%, over one month by -17.55%, over three months by -7.26% and over the past year by +13.61%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 158.20 (which is 5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
The Swatch has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 963.6111
P/E Forward = 32.0513
P/S = 1.4221
P/B = 0.8063
P/EG = 0.1074
Revenue TTM = 6.34b CHF
EBIT TTM = 141.0m CHF
EBITDA TTM = 560.0m CHF
Long Term Debt = 2.00m CHF (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 234.0m CHF (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 236.0m CHF (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.12b CHF (calculated: Debt 236.0m - CCE 1.36b)
Enterprise Value = 7.90b CHF (9.02b + Debt 236.0m - CCE 1.36b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 28.20 (Ebit TTM 141.0m / Interest Expense TTM 5.00m)
EV/FCF = 29.24x (Enterprise Value 7.90b / FCF TTM 270.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.42% (FCF TTM 270.0m / Enterprise Value 7.90b)
FCF Margin = 4.26% (FCF TTM 270.0m / Revenue TTM 6.34b)
Net Margin = 0.14% (Net Income TTM 9.00m / Revenue TTM 6.34b)
Gross Margin = 59.16% ((Revenue TTM 6.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 36.62% (prev 81.00%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.59 (Enterprise Value 7.90b / Total Assets 13.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.12% (Interest Expense 5.00m / Debt 236.0m)
Taxrate = 25.0% (non-US conservative default 25%)
NOPAT = 105.8m (EBIT 141.0m * (1 - 25.00%))
Current Ratio = 7.70 (Total Current Assets 9.74b / Total Current Liabilities 1.26b)
Debt / Equity = 0.02 (Debt 236.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 11.4b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.01 (Net Debt -1.12b / EBITDA 560.0m)
Debt / FCF = -4.16 (Net Debt -1.12b / FCF TTM 270.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 11.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.07% (Net Income 9.00m / Total Assets 13.5b)
RoE = 0.08% (Net Income TTM 9.00m / Total Stockholder Equity 11.7b)
RoCE = 1.21% (EBIT 141.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 11.7b + L.T.Debt 2.00m))
RoIC = 0.87% (NOPAT 105.8m / Invested Capital 12.1b)
WACC = 8.06% (E(9.02b)/V(9.25b) * Re(8.23%) + D(236.0m)/V(9.25b) * Rd(2.12%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -3.09 | Cagr: 0.17%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈270.0m ; Y1≈271.1m ; Y5≈287.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 193.2 (EV 4.47b - Net Debt -1.12b = Equity 5.59b / Shares 28.9m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -92.28 | Revenue CAGR: -8.77% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2025-12-31): EPS=4.88 | Chg30d=+2.38% | Revisions=-10% | GrowthEPS=+30.5% | GrowthRev=-8.0%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.58 | Chg30d=-7.90% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+9054.3% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +13% (up=7, down=5)