NOVN Stock Analysis: Novartis | SW
Drug Manufacturers - General | SW, Switzerland | Market Cap: 238.236m CHF | 12M Return: 41.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 294M
EPS Trend: 92.1%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 93.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Novartis AG is a Swiss-headquartered global pharmaceutical company (ticker: NOVN, listed on the SIX Swiss Exchange) that researches, develops, manufactures, and commercializes prescription medicines across multiple therapeutic areas, including cardiovascular and renal disease, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. The companys portfolio spans established blockbusters such as Entresto (heart failure), Cosentyx (immunology), Kisqali (oncology), Pluvicto (prostate cancer), Zolgensma (spinal muscular atrophy), and Leqvio (LDL cholesterol reduction), reflecting a diversified mix of small-molecule and biologic/biologic-like therapies. Founded in 1996 and based in Basel, Novartis also pursues external innovation through licensing and collaboration deals, including its partnership with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals to co-develop and commercialize the siRNA therapy Leqvio.
As a mega-cap healthcare company in the pharmaceuticals sub-industry, Novartis operates a research-driven business model in which revenue is largely tied to patented, branded prescription products whose commercial life is governed by regulatory exclusivity and patent timelines - a structural feature of the sector that makes pipeline replenishment and lifecycle management central to long-term performance. The pharmaceutical industry is also characterized by long, capital-intensive R&D cycles and high exposure to clinical trial outcomes, pricing/reimbursement decisions, and competition from both other originators and generic/biosimilar manufacturers once exclusivity expires.
- Entresto US patent cliff and IRA price negotiation weigh on revenue
- Pluvicto radioligand therapy expansion fuels oncology segment growth
- Cosentyx faces biosimilar and immunology competition pressure
| Net Income: 12.7b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -8.05% < 20% (prev -10.46%; Δ 2.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 18.1b > Net Income 12.7b |
| Net Debt (43.4b) to EBITDA (22.0b): 1.97 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.86 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.91b) vs 12m ago -2.35% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.29% > 18% (prev 76.25%; Δ -1.96% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.32% > 50% (prev 52.86%; Δ -4.54% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 12.18 > 6 (EBIT TTM 16.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b) |
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 27.4b - Total Current Liabilities 31.8b) / Total Assets 122b |
| B: 0.32 (Retained Earnings 39.8b / Total Assets 122b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 16.8b / Avg Total Assets 113b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 41.7b / Total Liabilities 80.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.36 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 9.88b/9.18b, Revenue 54.8b/55.2b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 76.25% / 74.29%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.68 / AQ_t-1 0.64) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 54.8b / 55.2b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 12.7b - CFO 18.1b) / TA 122b) |
| Beneish M = -2.91 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at CHF 128.52 with a total of 2,435,764 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.40%, over one month by +1.84%, over three months by +12.66% and over the past year by +41.88%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 124.80 (which is 2.9% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Novartis has no consensus analysts rating.
Market Cap USD = 292b (238b CHF * 1.2277 CHF.USD)
P/E Trailing = 22.1841
P/E Forward = 17.5747
P/S = 4.2022
P/B = 7.6563
P/EG = 4.183
Revenue TTM = 54.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 16.8b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.0b USD
Long Term Debt = 27.9b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 9.89b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 51.1b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.93b
Net Debt = 43.4b USD (calculated: Debt 51.1b - CCE 7.71b)
Enterprise Value = 336b USD (292b + Debt 51.1b - CCE 7.71b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.18 (Ebit TTM 16.8b / Interest Expense TTM 1.38b)
EV/FCF = 21.03x (Enterprise Value 336b / FCF TTM 16.0b)
FCF Yield = 4.76% (FCF TTM 16.0b / Enterprise Value 336b)
FCF Margin = 29.16% (FCF TTM 16.0b / Revenue TTM 54.8b)
Net Margin = 23.09% (Net Income TTM 12.7b / Revenue TTM 54.8b)
Gross Margin = 74.29% ((Revenue TTM 54.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.47% (prev 73.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.74 (Enterprise Value 336b / Total Assets 122b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.70% (Interest Expense 1.38b / Debt 51.1b)
Taxrate = 17.86% (2.75b / 15.4b)
NOPAT = 13.8b (EBIT 16.8b * (1 - 17.86%))
Current Ratio = 0.86 (Total Current Assets 27.4b / Total Current Liabilities 31.8b)
Debt / Equity = 1.23 (Debt 51.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 41.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.97 (Net Debt 43.4b / EBITDA 22.0b)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 43.4b / FCF TTM 16.0b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 42.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.16% (Net Income 12.7b / Total Assets 122b)
RoE = 29.64% (Net Income TTM 12.7b / Total Stockholder Equity 42.7b)
RoCE = 23.75% (EBIT 16.8b / Capital Employed (Equity 42.7b + L.T.Debt 27.9b))
RoIC = 14.10% (NOPAT 13.8b / Invested Capital 97.7b)
WACC = 5.29% (E(292b)/V(344b) * Re(5.83%) + D(51.1b)/V(344b) * Rd(2.70%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 5.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.96 | Cagr: -3.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.71% ; FCFF base≈16.8b ; Y1≈15.2b ; Y5≈13.2b
[DCF] Fair Price = 87.51 (EV 210b - Net Debt 43.4b = Equity 166b / Shares 1.90b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -11.49% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 92.05 | EPS CAGR: 11.39% | SUE: 2.85 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.11 | Revenue CAGR: 7.56% | SUE: 0.13 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.20 | Chg30d=-1.30% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.76 | Chg30d=+0.21% | Revisions=+10% | GrowthEPS=-2.4% | GrowthRev=+1.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.82 | Chg30d=+0.99% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+12.1% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +28% (up=10, down=5)