VSURE Stock Analysis: Verisure | ST
Security & Protection Services | ST, Sweden | Market Cap: 8.865m EUR | 12M Return: -31.5% | GB00BVMN1558 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 10.4M
Rev. Trend: 100.0%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 0.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Verisure plc is a provider of monitored security services for households and small businesses, operating across Europe and Latin America. Its offerings span the full service chain - professional installation, round-the-clock monitoring, expert verification, emergency response, maintenance, and customer support - covering threats such as intrusion, burglary, fire, theft, and other emergencies. Headquartered in London and founded in 1988, the company operates as a subsidiary of Aegis Lux 2 Sàrl.
The monitored security sector is typically defined by subscription-based revenue models, where customers pay recurring fees for ongoing alarm monitoring rather than a one-time equipment purchase. This structure supports high customer retention and predictable cash flows, while the heavy upfront investment in hardware and installation is generally amortised over the life of the contract. Industry operators commonly distinguish themselves through response times, average installation time, and customer attrition rates, which are key performance indicators for the segment.
- Subscriber base growth fuels recurring monitoring revenue
- High leverage amplifies impact of European rate trajectory
- Latin America expansion offsets mature European market saturation
| Net Income: -142.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.02 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -27.86% < 20% (prev -11.58%; Δ -16.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.32b > Net Income -142.5m |
| Net Debt (5.39b) to EBITDA (1.96b): 2.75 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.43 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.03b) vs 12m ago -1.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.66% > 18% (prev 27.03%; Δ 21.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 29.96% > 50% (prev 21.21%; Δ 8.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM 489.9m / Interest Expense TTM 541.9m) |
| A: -0.08 (Total Current Assets 1.00b - Total Current Liabilities 2.36b) / Total Assets 16.3b |
| B: -0.07 (Retained Earnings -1.07b / Total Assets 16.3b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 489.9m / Avg Total Assets 16.2b) |
| D: 1.20 (Book Value of Equity 8.91b / Total Liabilities 7.43b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.71 = B |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 621.6m/432.9m, Revenue 4.86b/3.41b) |
| GMI: 0.56 (GM 27.03% / 48.66%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.83) |
| SGI: 1.42 (Revenue 4.86b / 3.41b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -142.5m - CFO 1.32b) / TA 16.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.14 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 8.08 with a total of 1,209,593 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.18%, over one month by +0.27%, over three months by +24.26% and over the past year by -31.50%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.70 (which is 4.7% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Verisure has no consensus analysts rating.
P/S = 2.2496
Revenue TTM = 4.86b EUR
EBIT TTM = 489.9m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 1.96b EUR
Long Term Debt = 3.77b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.30b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.43b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 219.0m
Net Debt = 5.39b EUR (calculated: Debt 5.43b - CCE 36.7m)
Enterprise Value = 14.3b EUR (8.87b + Debt 5.43b - CCE 36.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.90 (Ebit TTM 489.9m / Interest Expense TTM 541.9m)
EV/FCF = 42.54x (Enterprise Value 14.3b / FCF TTM 335.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.35% (FCF TTM 335.1m / Enterprise Value 14.3b)
FCF Margin = 6.90% (FCF TTM 335.1m / Revenue TTM 4.86b)
Net Margin = -2.93% (Net Income TTM -142.5m / Revenue TTM 4.86b)
Gross Margin = 48.66% ((Revenue TTM 4.86b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.49b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.30% (prev 49.89%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.87 (Enterprise Value 14.3b / Total Assets 16.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 9.98% (Interest Expense 541.9m / Debt 5.43b)
Taxrate = 25.0% (non-US conservative default 25%)
NOPAT = 367.4m (EBIT 489.9m * (1 - 25.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.43 (Total Current Assets 1.00b / Total Current Liabilities 2.36b)
Debt / Equity = 0.61 (Debt 5.43b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 8.91b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.75 (Net Debt 5.39b / EBITDA 1.96b)
Debt / FCF = 16.09 (Net Debt 5.39b / FCF TTM 335.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.10b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.88% (Net Income -142.5m / Total Assets 16.3b)
RoE = -1.76% (Net Income TTM -142.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 8.10b)
RoCE = 4.13% (EBIT 489.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 8.10b + L.T.Debt 3.77b))
RoIC = 2.41% (NOPAT 367.4m / Invested Capital 15.2b)
WACC = 7.51% (E(8.87b)/V(14.3b) * Re(7.53%) + D(5.43b)/V(14.3b) * Rd(9.98%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.53% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -52.97 | Cagr: -0.83%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈463.0m ; Y1≈406.0m ; Y5≈328.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 5.27b - Net Debt 5.39b = -125.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.99 | Revenue CAGR: 10.10% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=-3.33% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.58 | Chg30d=+1.91% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+64.5% | GrowthRev=+10.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.68 | Chg30d=+1.23% | Revisions=-30% | GrowthEPS=+18.3% | GrowthRev=+8.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -19% (up=5, down=8)