YMM Stock Analysis: Full Truck Alliance | NYSE
Software - Application | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 8.503m USD | 12M Return: -35.8% | US35969L1089 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 41.2M
EPS Trend: 80.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 95.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 5.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. (NYSE: YMM) operates a digital freight marketplace that connects shippers with truckers across the Peoples Republic of China and Hong Kong, covering a wide range of shipment distances, cargo weights, and cargo types. Its service offerings are split between core freight matching (listing and brokerage) and transaction services, with a growing layer of value-added services including credit solutions, insurance brokerage, software, electronic toll collection, intelligent driving (autonomous/assisted driving) related services, and energy services.
The company was founded in 2011 and is headquartered in Guiyang, China. It listed on the NYSE in June 2021 via an ADR offering and is classified under the GICS Information Technology sector and Application Software sub-industry, reflecting its platform-based, asset-light business model rather than traditional asset-heavy logistics.
As a two-sided marketplace monetizing through transaction fees and adjacent services, Full Truck Alliance operates in Chinas road freight sector, which remains one of the largest trucking markets in the world by volume. Its hybrid classification as an Application Software name is a notable feature for investors, as it places the stock in a peer group dominated by SaaS and enterprise software companies rather than traditional transportation operators.
- China freight demand recovery lifts matching volume
- Value-added services expansion drives take rate and operating margins
- Hong Kong dual listing planned to mitigate US ADR delisting risk
| Net Income: 4.20b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 196.2% < 20% (prev 173.9%; Δ 22.34% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 4.63b > Net Income 4.20b |
| Net Debt (-23.6b) to EBITDA (4.37b): -5.40 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.96 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.04b) vs 12m ago -0.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.04% > 18% (prev 71.27%; Δ -5.23% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.86% > 50% (prev 28.51%; Δ 0.35% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: error (cannot be calculated; needs correct EBIT TTM and Interest Expense TTM) |
| A: 0.55 (Total Current Assets 28.6b - Total Current Liabilities 3.59b) / Total Assets 45.6b |
| B: -0.11 (Retained Earnings -4.79b / Total Assets 45.6b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 4.27b / Avg Total Assets 44.1b) |
| D: 10.70 (Book Value of Equity 40.4b / Total Liabilities 3.78b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 15.13 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.72 (Receivables 3.72b/4.91b, Revenue 12.7b/12.1b) |
| GMI: 1.08 (GM 71.27% / 66.04%) |
| AQI: 0.83 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.43) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 12.7b / 12.1b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 4.20b - CFO 4.63b) / TA 45.6b) |
| Beneish M = -3.25 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.13 with a total of 4,058,576 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.00%, over one month by -7.19%, over three months by +8.88% and over the past year by -35.76%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 7.80 (which is 4.1% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Full Truck Alliance has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.47. Therefore, it is recommended to buy YMM.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 12.6 | 54.5% |
Market Cap CNY = 57.1b (8.50b USD * 6.71325 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 13.55
P/E Forward = 19.4932
P/S = 0.6653
P/B = 1.3997
Revenue TTM = 12.7b CNY
EBIT TTM = 4.27b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 4.37b CNY
Long Term Debt = 6.02m CNY (estimated: total debt 24.9m - short term 18.8m)
Short Term Debt = 18.8m CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 24.9m CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) (leases 24.9m already included)
Net Debt = -23.6b CNY (calculated: Debt 24.9m - CCE 23.7b)
Enterprise Value = 33.5b CNY (57.1b + Debt 24.9m - CCE 23.7b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = unknown (Ebit TTM 4.27b / Interest Expense TTM 0.0)
EV/FCF = 7.44x (Enterprise Value 33.5b / FCF TTM 4.50b)
FCF Yield = 13.44% (FCF TTM 4.50b / Enterprise Value 33.5b)
FCF Margin = 35.34% (FCF TTM 4.50b / Revenue TTM 12.7b)
Net Margin = 32.99% (Net Income TTM 4.20b / Revenue TTM 12.7b)
Gross Margin = 66.04% ((Revenue TTM 12.7b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.32b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.32% (prev 72.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 33.5b / Total Assets 45.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.0% (Interest Expense 0.0 / Debt 24.9m)
Taxrate = 20.46% (1.09b / 5.33b)
NOPAT = 3.40b (EBIT 4.27b * (1 - 20.46%))
Current Ratio = 7.96 (Total Current Assets 28.6b / Total Current Liabilities 3.59b)
Debt / Equity = 0.00 (Debt 24.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 40.4b)
Debt / EBITDA = -5.40 (Net Debt -23.6b / EBITDA 4.37b)
Debt / FCF = -5.25 (Net Debt -23.6b / FCF TTM 4.50b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 39.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.52% (Net Income 4.20b / Total Assets 45.6b)
RoE = 10.69% (Net Income TTM 4.20b / Total Stockholder Equity 39.3b)
RoCE = 10.87% (EBIT 4.27b / Capital Employed (Equity 39.3b + L.T.Debt 6.02m))
RoIC = 8.21% (NOPAT 3.40b / Invested Capital 41.4b)
WACC = 10.26% (E(57.1b)/V(57.1b) * Re(10.26%) + D(24.9m)/V(57.1b) * Rd(0.0%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 10.26% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 4.12 | Cagr: -0.10%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.06% ; FCFF base≈3.86b ; Y1≈4.42b ; Y5≈6.51b
[DCF] Fair Price = 103.9 (EV 73.2b - Net Debt -23.6b = Equity 96.9b / Shares 932.5m; r=10.26% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 80.79 | EPS CAGR: 31.75% | SUE: 0.12 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.55 | Revenue CAGR: 19.58% | SUE: 0.28 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=+9.54% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.98 | Chg30d=+1.10% | Revisions=+58% | GrowthEPS=+10.0% | GrowthRev=-0.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.83 | Chg30d=+0.37% | Revisions=+31% | GrowthEPS=+17.1% | GrowthRev=+8.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +56% (up=18, down=4)