THG Stock Analysis: The Hanover Insurance | NYSE
Insurance - Property & Casualty | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 7.631m USD | 12M Return: 35.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 67.7M
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Hanover Insurance Group, Inc. (NYSE: THG) is a U.S.-based property and casualty insurer that serves both individual and commercial customers through four operating segments: Core Commercial, Specialty, Personal Lines, and Other. Its product range spans commercial multiple peril, commercial automobile, workers compensation, professional and executive liability, marine, surety, and various specialty coverages, alongside personal lines such as personal automobile, homeowners, umbrella, and specialty coverages for items like collector cars, motorcycles, and valuable possessions.
The company distributes its products exclusively through independent agents and brokers, a distribution channel that is widely used across the U.S. property and casualty insurance industry and typically allows carriers to serve local and niche markets without maintaining captive sales forces. Hanover also targets industry-specific segments, including construction, healthcare, manufacturing, real estate, technology, and financial institutions, reflecting the broader commercial lines strategy of segmenting customers by industry exposure to better price risk.
Headquartered in Worcester, Massachusetts, the company was founded in 1852 and was previously known as Allmerica Financial Corp. before adopting its current name in December 2005. It trades as a mid-cap stock on the NYSE within the Financials sector and the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry.
- Specialty segment growth outpaces Core Commercial on underwriting profitability
- Combined ratio improves as catastrophe losses moderate
- Investment income surges on rising interest rates
| Net Income: 721.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.53 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -148.9% < 20% (prev -56.28%; Δ -92.59% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 1.26b > Net Income 721.1m |
| Net Debt (-1.18b) to EBITDA (961.0m): -1.23 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (36.3m) vs 12m ago -0.27% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.52% > 18% (prev 20.04%; Δ 14.48% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.77% > 50% (prev 40.53%; Δ 1.23% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 21.24 > 6 (EBIT TTM 966.3m / Interest Expense TTM 45.5m) |
| A: -0.60 (Total Current Assets 2.10b - Total Current Liabilities 12.0b) / Total Assets 16.5b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 3.89b / Total Assets 16.5b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 966.3m / Avg Total Assets 16.0b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 3.57b / Total Liabilities 13.0b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -2.49 = D |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 219.52 with a total of 312,905 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.41%, over one month by +2.32%, over three months by +23.10% and over the past year by +35.69%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 212.90 (which is 3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
The Hanover Insurance has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.71. Therefore, it is recommended to hold THG.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 216.3 | -1.5% |
P/E Trailing = 10.999
P/E Forward = 12.4844
P/S = 1.1402
P/B = 2.1373
P/EG = 0.3399
Revenue TTM = 6.68b USD
EBIT TTM = 966.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 961.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 843.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 843.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -1.18b USD (calculated: Debt 843.8m - CCE 2.03b)
Enterprise Value = 6.45b USD (7.63b + Debt 843.8m - CCE 2.03b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 21.24 (Ebit TTM 966.3m / Interest Expense TTM 45.5m)
EV/FCF = 5.16x (Enterprise Value 6.45b / FCF TTM 1.25b)
FCF Yield = 19.37% (FCF TTM 1.25b / Enterprise Value 6.45b)
FCF Margin = 18.68% (FCF TTM 1.25b / Revenue TTM 6.68b)
Net Margin = 10.79% (Net Income TTM 721.1m / Revenue TTM 6.68b)
Gross Margin = 34.52% ((Revenue TTM 6.68b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.38b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.72% (prev 46.79%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.39 (Enterprise Value 6.45b / Total Assets 16.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.39% (Interest Expense 45.5m / Debt 843.8m)
Taxrate = 21.88% (201.5m / 920.8m)
NOPAT = 754.8m (EBIT 966.3m * (1 - 21.88%))
Current Ratio = 0.17 (Total Current Assets 2.10b / Total Current Liabilities 12.0b)
Debt / Equity = 0.24 (Debt 843.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.57b)
Debt / EBITDA = -1.23 (Net Debt -1.18b / EBITDA 961.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.95 (Net Debt -1.18b / FCF TTM 1.25b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.45b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.51% (Net Income 721.1m / Total Assets 16.5b)
RoE = 20.92% (Net Income TTM 721.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.45b)
RoCE = 22.52% (EBIT 966.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.45b + L.T.Debt 843.8m))
RoIC = 4.66% (NOPAT 754.8m / Invested Capital 16.2b)
WACC = 6.43% (E(7.63b)/V(8.47b) * Re(6.68%) + D(843.8m)/V(8.47b) * Rd(5.39%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 14.24 | Cagr: 0.12%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.06b ; Y1≈1.22b ; Y5≈1.79b
[DCF] Fair Price = 803.0 (EV 26.9b - Net Debt -1.18b = Equity 28.1b / Shares 35.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.71 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 99.01 | Revenue CAGR: 4.79% | SUE: 2.16 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.76 | Chg30d=-3.13% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.17 | Chg30d=-0.24% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=18.49 | Chg30d=-0.59% | Revisions=+73% | GrowthEPS=-3.2% | GrowthRev=+5.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=18.62 | Chg30d=+0.17% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+0.7% | GrowthRev=+4.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +83% (up=25, down=1)