SW Stock Analysis: Smurfit WestRock | NYSE
Packaging & Containers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 25.468m USD | 12M Return: 7.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 230M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 91.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Smurfit Westrock Plc is a global manufacturer and distributor of paper-based packaging products, with operations across North America, South America, Europe, Asia, Africa, and Australia. The companys product portfolio includes containerboard, corrugated containers, paperboard, consumer packaging, solid board, kraft paper, graphic board, folding cartons, paper sacks, and bag-in-box products. It primarily serves end markets such as food and beverage, healthcare, beauty and personal care, consumer goods, industrial, and foodservice. The company distributes its products through a combination of its own sales force, independent sales representatives, and independent distributors. Smurfit Westrock was founded in 1934 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.
The company operates within the Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials sub-industry of the Materials sector, where players typically rely on a vertically integrated model spanning raw fiber sourcing, paper and board production, and conversion into finished packaging solutions. Paper-based packaging demand is closely tied to global e-commerce activity, consumer goods manufacturing, and the substitution of plastic packaging with renewable and recyclable fiber-based alternatives.
- OCC and pulp input cost volatility pressures containerboard margins
- Merger synergy capture and debt paydown accelerate post-combination
- Containerboard demand tracks e-commerce volumes and industrial production cycles
| Net Income: 371.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.39 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 10.71% < 20% (prev 12.95%; Δ -2.24% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 3.36b > Net Income 371.5m |
| Net Debt (13.6b) to EBITDA (4.06b): 3.34 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.44 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (538.9m) vs 12m ago 2.45% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.42% > 18% (prev 19.57%; Δ -1.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 67.30% > 50% (prev 55.08%; Δ 12.21% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.76 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1.48b / Interest Expense TTM 843.0m) |
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 10.6b - Total Current Liabilities 7.31b) / Total Assets 45.2b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 2.40b / Total Assets 45.2b) |
| C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 1.48b / Avg Total Assets 44.9b) |
| D: 0.67 (Book Value of Equity 18.1b / Total Liabilities 27.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.57 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 4.64b/4.55b, Revenue 30.2b/24.6b) |
| GMI: 1.06 (GM 19.57% / 18.42%) |
| AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.26 / AQ_t-1 0.25) |
| SGI: 1.23 (Revenue 30.2b / 24.6b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 371.5m - CFO 3.36b) / TA 45.2b) |
| Beneish M = -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 50.09 with a total of 8,429,935 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +16.11%, over one month by +8.49%, over three months by +26.53% and over the past year by +7.69%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 47.60 (which is 5% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Smurfit WestRock has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy SW.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 55 | 9.9% |
P/E Trailing = 67.4444
P/E Forward = 20.0803
P/S = 0.8154
P/B = 1.4103
P/EG = 0.277
Revenue TTM = 30.2b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.48b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.06b USD
Long Term Debt = 13.3b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 980.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 14.3b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 13.6b USD (calculated: Debt 14.3b - CCE 674.0m)
Enterprise Value = 39.0b USD (25.5b + Debt 14.3b - CCE 674.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.76 (Ebit TTM 1.48b / Interest Expense TTM 843.0m)
EV/FCF = 38.21x (Enterprise Value 39.0b / FCF TTM 1.02b)
FCF Yield = 2.62% (FCF TTM 1.02b / Enterprise Value 39.0b)
FCF Margin = 3.38% (FCF TTM 1.02b / Revenue TTM 30.2b)
Net Margin = 1.23% (Net Income TTM 371.5m / Revenue TTM 30.2b)
Gross Margin = 18.42% ((Revenue TTM 30.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 24.7b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.44% (prev 18.23%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 39.0b / Total Assets 45.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.91% (Interest Expense 843.0m / Debt 14.3b)
Taxrate = 42.10% (270.2m / 642.0m)
NOPAT = 859.9m (EBIT 1.48b * (1 - 42.10%))
Current Ratio = 1.44 (Total Current Assets 10.6b / Total Current Liabilities 7.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.79 (Debt 14.3b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 18.1b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.34 (Net Debt 13.6b / EBITDA 4.06b)
Debt / FCF = 13.29 (Net Debt 13.6b / FCF TTM 1.02b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.3b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.83% (Net Income 371.5m / Total Assets 45.2b)
RoE = 2.03% (Net Income TTM 371.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 18.3b)
RoCE = 4.71% (EBIT 1.48b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.3b + L.T.Debt 13.3b))
RoIC = 2.25% (NOPAT 859.9m / Invested Capital 38.2b)
WACC = 8.16% (E(25.5b)/V(39.7b) * Re(10.81%) + D(14.3b)/V(39.7b) * Rd(5.91%) * (1-Tc(0.42)))
Discount Rate = 10.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.84 | Cagr: 38.37%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.02b ; Y1≈1.03b ; Y5≈1.09b
[DCF] Fair Price = 6.34 (EV 16.9b - Net Debt 13.6b = Equity 3.33b / Shares 524.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.25 | Revenue CAGR: 58.42% | SUE: -0.23 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=-4.27% | Revisions=-70% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.76 | Chg30d=+0.04% | Revisions=+29% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.15 | Chg30d=-3.53% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+61.8% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.36 | Chg30d=+5.82% | Revisions=+50% | GrowthEPS=+43.5% | GrowthRev=+4.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -21% (up=6, down=10)