PRG Stock Analysis: PROG Holdings | NYSE
Rental & Leasing Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.751m USD | 12M Return: 35.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 22.4M
EPS Trend: -19.3%
Qual. Beats: 4
Rev. Trend: 57.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PROG Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: PRG) is a U.S.-based financial technology holding company that provides alternative payment solutions to consumers through two main segments: Progressive Leasing, a lease-to-own (LTO) provider operating across in-store, app-based, and e-commerce point-of-sale channels, and Four, a buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) platform offering short-term, interest-free instalment plans to consumers across all credit backgrounds. The company also operates Purchasing Power, which serves underserved customers with alternatives to traditional financing. Headquartered in Draper, Utah, the company was founded in 1955 and previously operated as Aarons Holdings Company before adopting its current name in December 2020.
PROG operates within the consumer finance sector, where lease-to-own and BNPL models primarily serve subprime and underbanked consumers who may have limited access to traditional credit. These alternative lending categories have grown as fintech adoption has expanded point-of-sale financing options for retailers and customers.
- Progressive Leasing revenue growth drives quarterly results
- CFPB scrutiny of lease-to-own industry pressures margins
- Four BNPL segment faces competition from Affirm and Klarna
| Net Income: 148.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.06 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 38.42% < 20% (prev 35.50%; Δ 2.92% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 296.7m > Net Income 148.1m |
| Net Debt (863.9m) to EBITDA (1.79b): 0.48 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 8.06 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.8m) vs 12m ago -2.49% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.57% > 18% (prev 34.15%; Δ 1.42% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 143.3% > 50% (prev 170.5%; Δ -27.15% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM 221.0m / Interest Expense TTM 44.7m) |
| A: 0.47 (Total Current Assets 1.10b - Total Current Liabilities 137.0m) / Total Assets 2.04b |
| B: 0.80 (Retained Earnings 1.62b / Total Assets 2.04b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 221.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.76b) |
| D: 0.61 (Book Value of Equity 774.4m / Total Liabilities 1.27b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 7.19 = AAA |
| DSRI: 2.32 (Receivables 493.2m/211.3m, Revenue 2.52b/2.51b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 34.15% / 35.57%) |
| AQI: 1.61 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 2.52b / 2.51b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 148.1m - CFO 296.7m) / TA 2.04b) |
| Beneish M = -1.62 (Cap -4..+1) = CCC |
As of July 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 43.29 with a total of 359,820 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.82%, over one month by -6.08%, over three months by +43.75% and over the past year by +35.16%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 41.10 (which is 5.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
PROG Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PRG.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 51.4 | 18.8% |
P/E Trailing = 11.1221
P/E Forward = 9.1996
P/S = 0.7052
P/B = 2.2616
P/EG = 0.9304
Revenue TTM = 2.52b USD
EBIT TTM = 221.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.79b USD
Long Term Debt = 886.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 943.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 7.26m
Net Debt = 863.9m USD (calculated: Debt 943.4m - CCE 79.5m)
Enterprise Value = 2.62b USD (1.75b + Debt 943.4m - CCE 79.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.94 (Ebit TTM 221.0m / Interest Expense TTM 44.7m)
EV/FCF = 9.16x (Enterprise Value 2.62b / FCF TTM 285.5m)
FCF Yield = 10.92% (FCF TTM 285.5m / Enterprise Value 2.62b)
FCF Margin = 11.34% (FCF TTM 285.5m / Revenue TTM 2.52b)
Net Margin = 5.88% (Net Income TTM 148.1m / Revenue TTM 2.52b)
Gross Margin = 35.57% ((Revenue TTM 2.52b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.62b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.61% (prev 35.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 2.62b / Total Assets 2.04b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.74% (Interest Expense 44.7m / Debt 943.4m)
Taxrate = 27.91% (49.5m / 177.2m)
NOPAT = 159.3m (EBIT 221.0m * (1 - 27.91%))
Current Ratio = 8.06 (Total Current Assets 1.10b / Total Current Liabilities 137.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.22 (Debt 943.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 774.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.48 (Net Debt 863.9m / EBITDA 1.79b)
Debt / FCF = 3.03 (Net Debt 863.9m / FCF TTM 285.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 723.3m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.43% (Net Income 148.1m / Total Assets 2.04b)
RoE = 20.48% (Net Income TTM 148.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 723.3m)
RoCE = 13.73% (EBIT 221.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 723.3m + L.T.Debt 886.1m))
RoIC = 8.72% (NOPAT 159.3m / Invested Capital 1.83b)
WACC = 8.14% (E(1.75b)/V(2.69b) * Re(10.68%) + D(943.4m)/V(2.69b) * Rd(4.74%) * (1-Tc(0.28)))
Discount Rate = 10.68% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.54 | Cagr: -4.32%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈253.1m ; Y1≈290.2m ; Y5≈427.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 138.8 (EV 6.43b - Net Debt 863.9m = Equity 5.56b / Shares 40.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -19.27 | EPS CAGR: -0.76% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 57.32 | Revenue CAGR: 1.24% | SUE: 0.40 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.95 | Chg30d=+0.67% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=8
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=+2.07% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=8
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.65 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+32.6% | GrowthRev=+26.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.33 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+14.6% | GrowthRev=+7.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +10% (up=4, down=3)