PFS Stock Analysis: Provident Financial | NYSE
Banks - Regional | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.991m USD | 12M Return: 22.1% | US74386T1051 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 18.4M
EPS Trend: 50.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 96.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Provident Financial Services, Inc. is the holding company for Provident Bank, offering a full suite of banking, lending, and wealth management products to individuals, families, and businesses across the United States. Its core services span deposit accounts (checking, savings, money market, CDs, IRAs), a diversified loan portfolio (commercial real estate, commercial business, residential mortgages, construction, and consumer loans such as home equity and auto), and ancillary offerings including cash management, online and mobile banking, business credit cards, wealth and trust services, insurance agency operations, and real estate acquired through foreclosure.
The company is classified within the Regional Banks sub-industry of the Financials sector, a category that typically consists of mid-sized commercial banks focused on geographically defined markets and relationship-driven lending. Headquartered in Jersey City, New Jersey, Provident traces its origins to 1839, giving it one of the longer operating histories among U.S. community and regional banking franchises.
- Net interest margin compresses as deposit costs outpace loan repricing
- Commercial real estate loan concentration raises credit quality scrutiny
- Deposit growth slows amid intense regional banking competition
| Net Income: 312.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.94 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.15k% < 20% (prev -1.20k%; Δ 55.65% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 370.5m > Net Income 312.7m |
| Net Debt (1.28b) to EBITDA (486.3m): 2.63 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.19 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (130.4m) vs 12m ago -0.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.16% > 18% (prev 58.30%; Δ 4.86% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.50% > 50% (prev 5.25%; Δ 0.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.85 > 6 (EBIT TTM 430.1m / Interest Expense TTM 504.6m) |
| A: -0.62 (Total Current Assets 3.61b - Total Current Liabilities 19.4b) / Total Assets 25.7b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 1.25b / Total Assets 25.7b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 430.1m / Avg Total Assets 25.1b) |
| D: 0.13 (Book Value of Equity 2.91b / Total Liabilities 22.8b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.63 = D |
| DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 98.1m/92.7m, Revenue 1.38b/1.29b) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 58.30% / 63.16%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.86) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.38b / 1.29b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 312.7m - CFO 370.5m) / TA 25.7b) |
| Beneish M = -3.06 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 22.84 with a total of 932,619 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.95%, over one month by -2.64%, over three months by -2.37% and over the past year by +22.14%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.20 (which is 2.8% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Provident Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.20. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PFS.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 27.9 | 22.2% |
P/E Trailing = 9.5542
P/E Forward = 9.0171
P/S = 3.3442
P/B = 1.0346
P/EG = 1.6065
Revenue TTM = 1.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 430.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 486.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.73b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.97b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.79b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.28b USD (calculated: Debt 4.79b - CCE 3.51b)
Enterprise Value = 4.27b USD (2.99b + Debt 4.79b - CCE 3.51b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.85 (Ebit TTM 430.1m / Interest Expense TTM 504.6m)
EV/FCF = 11.77x (Enterprise Value 4.27b / FCF TTM 362.7m)
FCF Yield = 8.50% (FCF TTM 362.7m / Enterprise Value 4.27b)
FCF Margin = 26.28% (FCF TTM 362.7m / Revenue TTM 1.38b)
Net Margin = 22.66% (Net Income TTM 312.7m / Revenue TTM 1.38b)
Gross Margin = 63.16% ((Revenue TTM 1.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 508.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.06% (prev 65.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.17 (Enterprise Value 4.27b / Total Assets 25.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.53% (Interest Expense 504.6m / Debt 4.79b)
Taxrate = 27.29% (117.4m / 430.1m)
NOPAT = 312.7m (EBIT 430.1m * (1 - 27.29%))
Current Ratio = 0.19 (Total Current Assets 3.61b / Total Current Liabilities 19.4b)
Debt / Equity = 1.65 (Debt 4.79b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.91b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.63 (Net Debt 1.28b / EBITDA 486.3m)
Debt / FCF = 3.52 (Net Debt 1.28b / FCF TTM 362.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.84b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.25% (Net Income 312.7m / Total Assets 25.7b)
RoE = 11.00% (Net Income TTM 312.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.84b)
RoCE = 7.72% (EBIT 430.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.84b + L.T.Debt 2.73b))
RoIC = 3.83% (NOPAT 312.7m / Invested Capital 8.16b)
WACC = 8.14% (E(2.99b)/V(7.78b) * Re(8.91%) + D(4.79b)/V(7.78b) * Rd(10.53%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 68.47 | Cagr: 27.65%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈449.0m ; Y1≈393.8m ; Y5≈318.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 29.37 (EV 5.11b - Net Debt 1.28b = Equity 3.83b / Shares 130.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 50.19 | EPS CAGR: 19.11% | SUE: 0.22 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.15 | Revenue CAGR: 36.66% | SUE: 0.61 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.61 | Chg30d=+5.72% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.46 | Chg30d=+4.01% | Revisions=+67% | GrowthEPS=+9.7% | GrowthRev=+6.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.60 | Chg30d=+3.38% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+5.5% | GrowthRev=+6.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +84% (up=16, down=0)