PD Stock Analysis: Pagerduty | NYSE
Software - Application | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.136m USD | 12M Return: -11.2% | US69553P1003 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 23.9M
EPS Trend: 84.7%
Qual. Beats: 10
Rev. Trend: 97.5%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 7.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PagerDuty, Inc. (NYSE: PD) operates a cloud-based digital operations management platform that collects data and digital signals from software-enabled systems and devices, using artificial intelligence and machine learning to correlate events, predict issues, and automate incident remediation. Its platform includes Incident Management, AIOps, automation workflows, customer service operations, and generative AI capabilities, serving customers across software and technology, telecommunications, retail, travel and hospitality, media and entertainment, and financial services. Founded in 2009 and headquartered in San Francisco, the company went public in April 2019.
As a small-cap stock in the Application Software sub-industry, PagerDuty operates a software-as-a-service (SaaS) business model typical of the sector, generating recurring subscription revenue from enterprises that rely on its platform to minimize downtime and coordinate real-time responses across IT, DevOps, and customer service teams. Its placement within Information Technology reflects the broader shift toward digital transformation, where reliable system uptime and automated incident response have become critical operational priorities for businesses.
- AIOps platform adoption drives enterprise customer growth
- Operating margins expand as cloud infrastructure costs scale
- Competition from ServiceNow and Datadog pressures market share
| Net Income: 181.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.29 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 16.78 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 59.00% < 20% (prev 80.77%; Δ -21.77% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 131.4m > Net Income 181.0m |
| Net Debt (-41.3m) to EBITDA (56.9m): -0.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.02 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (79.3m) vs 12m ago -15.82% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.84% > 18% (prev 83.78%; Δ 1.05% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.49% > 50% (prev 54.24%; Δ -0.76% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.76 > 6 (EBIT TTM 44.9m / Interest Expense TTM 6.64m) |
| A: 0.30 (Total Current Assets 579.1m - Total Current Liabilities 287.2m) / Total Assets 958.3m |
| B: -0.43 (Retained Earnings -408.7m / Total Assets 958.3m) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 44.9m / Avg Total Assets 924.9m) |
| D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 232.0m / Total Liabilities 711.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.28 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 71.7m/70.4m, Revenue 494.7m/483.6m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 83.78% / 84.84%) |
| AQI: 1.67 (AQ_t 0.35 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 494.7m / 483.6m) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 181.0m - CFO 131.4m) / TA 958.3m) |
| Beneish M = -2.62 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.38 with a total of 1,670,545 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.71%, over one month by +17.39%, over three months by +67.99% and over the past year by -11.23%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.60 (which is 5.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Pagerduty has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.54. Therefore, it is recommended to hold PD.
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 12.6 | -12.1% |
P/E Trailing = 7.1485
P/E Forward = 10.7296
P/S = 2.2956
P/B = 4.9097
Revenue TTM = 494.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 44.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 56.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 396.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.01m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 428.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 15.9m
Net Debt = -41.3m USD (calculated: Debt 428.7m - CCE 470.0m)
Enterprise Value = 1.09b USD (1.14b + Debt 428.7m - CCE 470.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.76 (Ebit TTM 44.9m / Interest Expense TTM 6.64m)
EV/FCF = 3.93x (Enterprise Value 1.09b / FCF TTM 278.2m)
FCF Yield = 25.42% (FCF TTM 278.2m / Enterprise Value 1.09b)
FCF Margin = 56.23% (FCF TTM 278.2m / Revenue TTM 494.7m)
Net Margin = 36.58% (Net Income TTM 181.0m / Revenue TTM 494.7m)
Gross Margin = 84.84% ((Revenue TTM 494.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 75.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.90% (prev 84.28%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.14 (Enterprise Value 1.09b / Total Assets 958.3m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.55% (Interest Expense 6.64m / Debt 428.7m)
Taxrate = 36.10% (4.36m / 12.1m)
NOPAT = 28.7m (EBIT 44.9m * (1 - 36.10%))
Current Ratio = 1.98 (Total Current Assets 579.1m / Total Current Liabilities 292.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.85 (Debt 428.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 232.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.73 (Net Debt -41.3m / EBITDA 56.9m)
Debt / FCF = -0.15 (Net Debt -41.3m / FCF TTM 278.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 255.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.57% (Net Income 181.0m / Total Assets 958.3m)
RoE = 70.79% (Net Income TTM 181.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 255.6m)
RoCE = 6.88% (EBIT 44.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 255.6m + L.T.Debt 396.9m))
RoIC = 4.40% (NOPAT 28.7m / Invested Capital 652.4m)
WACC = 7.33% (E(1.14b)/V(1.56b) * Re(9.72%) + D(428.7m)/V(1.56b) * Rd(1.55%) * (1-Tc(0.36)))
Discount Rate = 9.72% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -72.37 | Cagr: -6.79%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈210.6m ; Y1≈241.4m ; Y5≈355.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 68.51 (EV 5.35b - Net Debt -41.3m = Equity 5.39b / Shares 78.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 84.68 | EPS CAGR: 17.76% | SUE: 1.97 | # QB: 10
Revenue Correlation: 97.51 | Revenue CAGR: 6.45% | SUE: 1.21 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-10-31): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+4.15% | Revisions=+50% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2027-01-31): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=+3.09% | Revisions=+70% | GrowthEPS=+16.9% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
EPS next Year (2028-01-31): EPS=1.47 | Chg30d=+4.43% | Revisions=+42% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+2.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +65% (up=20, down=3)