PAGS Stock Analysis: PagSeguro Digital | NYSE
Software - Infrastructure | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.506m USD | 12M Return: -2.8% | KYG687071012 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 26.4M
EPS Trend: 39.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 92.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (NYSE: PAGS) is a Brazilian fintech that provides financial and payment solutions to consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and abroad. Its service offering spans digital banking, debit/credit/prepaid cards, consumer and working capital credit, insurance, investment products, and a branded marketplace called Shopping PagBank.
Beyond financial products, the company sells merchant-facing software such as PagVendas (POS application), ClubPag (marketing/advertising tool), PlugPag (Bluetooth-based POS integration), and Envio Fácil (logistics for online sales). This layered model turns the payments terminal into a broader point-of-sale and merchant services platform, allowing cross-selling of credit, insurance, and software on top of each transaction.
PagSeguro was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, listing on the NYSE in January 2018. Its operations sit within Brazils large and rapidly digitalizing payments ecosystem, which includes the central bank-operated Pix instant payment rail widely adopted by merchants and consumers across the country.
- Brazil interest rate cuts pressure net interest margins
- Pix competition and Mercado Pago intensify in payments
- Credit and insurance product cross-sell drives merchant revenue
| Net Income: 2.15b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.00 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 118.2% < 20% (prev 95.80%; Δ 22.37% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 653.8m > Net Income 2.15b |
| Net Debt (45.2b) to EBITDA (9.72b): 4.65 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.55 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (279.5m) vs 12m ago -7.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.34% > 18% (prev 49.19%; Δ 2.15% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 26.95% > 50% (prev 27.12%; Δ -0.17% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.49 > 6 (EBIT TTM 7.85b / Interest Expense TTM 5.25b) |
| A: 0.31 (Total Current Assets 65.9b - Total Current Liabilities 42.5b) / Total Assets 75.7b |
| B: 0.16 (Retained Earnings 12.0b / Total Assets 75.7b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 7.85b / Avg Total Assets 73.4b) |
| D: 0.25 (Book Value of Equity 15.0b / Total Liabilities 60.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.52 = A |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 58.9b/56.2b, Revenue 19.8b/19.3b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 49.19% / 51.34%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 19.8b / 19.3b) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 2.15b - CFO 653.8m) / TA 75.7b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.05 with a total of 1,554,851 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.27%, over one month by +3.23%, over three months by +6.65% and over the past year by -2.80%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.30 (which is 8.3% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
PagSeguro Digital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.88. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PAGS.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 11.4 | 25.7% |
Market Cap BRL = 13.0b (2.51b USD * 5.1868 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 6.226
P/E Forward = 6.1728
P/S = 0.1265
P/B = 0.8876
Revenue TTM = 19.8b BRL
EBIT TTM = 7.85b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 9.72b BRL
Long Term Debt = 14.7b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 30.9b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 46.6b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 45.2b BRL (calculated: Debt 46.6b - CCE 1.39b)
Enterprise Value = 58.2b BRL (13.0b + Debt 46.6b - CCE 1.39b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.49 (Ebit TTM 7.85b / Interest Expense TTM 5.25b)
EV/FCF = -102.9x (Enterprise Value 58.2b / FCF TTM -565.5m)
FCF Yield = -0.97% (FCF TTM -565.5m / Enterprise Value 58.2b)
FCF Margin = -2.86% (FCF TTM -565.5m / Revenue TTM 19.8b)
Net Margin = 10.85% (Net Income TTM 2.15b / Revenue TTM 19.8b)
Gross Margin = 51.34% ((Revenue TTM 19.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.53% (prev 51.24%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.77 (Enterprise Value 58.2b / Total Assets 75.7b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.27% (Interest Expense 5.25b / Debt 46.6b)
Taxrate = 17.38% (451.8m / 2.60b)
NOPAT = 6.48b (EBIT 7.85b * (1 - 17.38%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 65.9b / Total Current Liabilities 42.5b)
Debt / Equity = 3.10 (Debt 46.6b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.0b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.65 (Net Debt 45.2b / EBITDA 9.72b)
Debt / FCF = -79.97 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 45.2b / FCF TTM -565.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 14.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.93% (Net Income 2.15b / Total Assets 75.7b)
RoE = 14.60% (Net Income TTM 2.15b / Total Stockholder Equity 14.7b)
RoCE = 26.69% (EBIT 7.85b / Capital Employed (Equity 14.7b + L.T.Debt 14.7b))
RoIC = 10.28% (NOPAT 6.48b / Invested Capital 63.1b)
WACC = 9.31% (E(13.0b)/V(59.6b) * Re(9.29%) + D(46.6b)/V(59.6b) * Rd(11.27%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 9.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.64 | Cagr: -6.00%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -565.5m)
EPS Correlation: 39.44 | EPS CAGR: 7.15% | SUE: 0.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.88 | Revenue CAGR: 12.77% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.13 | Chg30d=-1.16% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.61 | Chg30d=-0.99% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+3.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.71 | Chg30d=+1.23% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+12.7% | GrowthRev=+5.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -44% (up=3, down=10)