PAGS Stock Analysis: PagSeguro Digital | NYSE
Software - Infrastructure | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.572m USD | 12M Return: 21.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 27.5M
EPS Trend: 87.1%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 95.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 8.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
PagSeguro Digital Ltd. (NYSE: PAGS) is a Brazilian fintech that provides financial and payment solutions to consumers, individual entrepreneurs, micro-merchants, and small and medium-sized companies in Brazil and abroad. Its service offering spans digital banking, debit/credit/prepaid cards, consumer and working capital credit, insurance, investment products, and a branded marketplace called Shopping PagBank.
Beyond financial products, the company sells merchant-facing software such as PagVendas (POS application), ClubPag (marketing/advertising tool), PlugPag (Bluetooth-based POS integration), and Envio Fácil (logistics for online sales). This layered model turns the payments terminal into a broader point-of-sale and merchant services platform, allowing cross-selling of credit, insurance, and software on top of each transaction.
PagSeguro was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil, listing on the NYSE in January 2018. Its operations sit within Brazils large and rapidly digitalizing payments ecosystem, which includes the central bank-operated Pix instant payment rail widely adopted by merchants and consumers across the country.
- Brazil interest rate cuts pressure net interest margins
- Pix competition and Mercado Pago intensify in payments
- Credit and insurance product cross-sell drives merchant revenue
| Net Income: 2.14b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.20 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 97.46% < 20% (prev 110.3%; Δ -12.82% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 1.88b > Net Income 2.14b |
| Net Debt (39.0b) to EBITDA (9.55b): 4.09 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.43 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (282.9m) vs 12m ago -7.43% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 51.14% > 18% (prev 48.35%; Δ 2.79% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 27.62% > 50% (prev 27.26%; Δ 0.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.50 > 6 (EBIT TTM 7.72b / Interest Expense TTM 5.13b) |
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 64.7b - Total Current Liabilities 45.4b) / Total Assets 74.3b |
| B: 0.15 (Retained Earnings 11.3b / Total Assets 74.3b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 7.72b / Avg Total Assets 71.7b) |
| D: 0.24 (Book Value of Equity 14.3b / Total Liabilities 59.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.18 = A |
| DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 58.0b/54.8b, Revenue 19.8b/18.8b) |
| GMI: 0.95 (GM 48.35% / 51.14%) |
| AQI: 1.09 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.09) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 19.8b / 18.8b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 2.14b - CFO 1.88b) / TA 74.3b) |
| Beneish M = -2.98 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 9.38 with a total of 1,842,928 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.97%, over one month by +3.30%, over three months by -8.49% and over the past year by +21.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.90 (which is 5.1% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
PagSeguro Digital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.88. Therefore, it is recommended to buy PAGS.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 11.8 | 25.8% |
Market Cap BRL = 13.1b (2.57b USD * 5.0842 USD.BRL)
P/E Trailing = 6.3889
P/E Forward = 6.1958
P/S = 0.1298
P/B = 0.9269
Revenue TTM = 19.8b BRL
EBIT TTM = 7.72b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 9.55b BRL
Long Term Debt = 11.2b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 33.5b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 45.7b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 39.0b BRL (calculated: Debt 45.7b - CCE 6.67b)
Enterprise Value = 52.1b BRL (13.1b + Debt 45.7b - CCE 6.67b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.50 (Ebit TTM 7.72b / Interest Expense TTM 5.13b)
EV/FCF = 144.7x (Enterprise Value 52.1b / FCF TTM 359.9m)
FCF Yield = 0.69% (FCF TTM 359.9m / Enterprise Value 52.1b)
FCF Margin = 1.82% (FCF TTM 359.9m / Revenue TTM 19.8b)
Net Margin = 10.79% (Net Income TTM 2.14b / Revenue TTM 19.8b)
Gross Margin = 51.14% ((Revenue TTM 19.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 9.68b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.24% (prev 51.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.70 (Enterprise Value 52.1b / Total Assets 74.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 11.23% (Interest Expense 5.13b / Debt 45.7b)
Taxrate = 17.51% (453.4m / 2.59b)
NOPAT = 6.37b (EBIT 7.72b * (1 - 17.51%))
Current Ratio = 1.43 (Total Current Assets 64.7b / Total Current Liabilities 45.4b)
Debt / Equity = 3.19 (Debt 45.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 14.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.09 (Net Debt 39.0b / EBITDA 9.55b)
Debt / FCF = 108.4 (Net Debt 39.0b / FCF TTM 359.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 14.6b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.98% (Net Income 2.14b / Total Assets 74.3b)
RoE = 14.62% (Net Income TTM 2.14b / Total Stockholder Equity 14.6b)
RoCE = 29.87% (EBIT 7.72b / Capital Employed (Equity 14.6b + L.T.Debt 11.2b))
RoIC = 10.37% (NOPAT 6.37b / Invested Capital 61.4b)
WACC = 9.49% (E(13.1b)/V(58.8b) * Re(10.25%) + D(45.7b)/V(58.8b) * Rd(11.23%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 10.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -95.34 | Cagr: -5.21%
[DCF] Terminal Value 71.55% ; FCFF base≈359.9m ; Y1≈361.4m ; Y5≈382.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 4.99b - Net Debt 39.0b = -34.0b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 87.13 | EPS CAGR: 17.05% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 95.57 | Revenue CAGR: 15.21% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=2.00 | Chg30d=+0.18% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=6
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=-0.88% | Revisions=-29% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.71 | Chg30d=+0.48% | Revisions=+12% | GrowthEPS=+9.5% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.62 | Chg30d=-0.80% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -5% (up=9, down=10)