MSDL Stock Analysis: Morgan Stanley Direct | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.230m USD | 12M Return: -4.8% | US61774A1034 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 5.18M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -41.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 2.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Morgan Stanley Direct Lending Fund (MSDL) is a business development company (BDC) listed on the NYSE that primarily invests in below-investment-grade debt issued by middle-market companies or by private equity sponsors financing acquisitions.
As a BDC, MSDL operates under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a regulatory framework that permits it to lend directly to private and smaller borrowers that may have limited access to traditional bank financing. Direct lending funds typically generate income through interest payments and fees on these privately negotiated loans, offering investors exposure to the private credit market.
- Floating-rate loan income rises with higher base rates
- Middle-market default rates pressure NAV and dividend coverage
- Private credit competition compresses underwriting spreads on new deals
| Net Income: 59.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 11.15 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 17.06% < 20% (prev 13.48%; Δ 3.58% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 282.9m > Net Income 59.7m |
| Net Debt (1.90b) to EBITDA (195.6m): 9.72 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.65 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (84.8m) vs 12m ago -2.79% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 68.27% > 18% (prev 56.02%; Δ 12.25% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 8.10% > 50% (prev 7.84%; Δ 0.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 164.7m / Interest Expense TTM 129.9m) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 134.1m - Total Current Liabilities 81.3m) / Total Assets 3.71b |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -92.6m / Total Assets 3.71b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 164.7m / Avg Total Assets 3.82b) |
| D: 0.80 (Book Value of Equity 1.65b / Total Liabilities 2.06b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.14 = BB |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.29 with a total of 516,837 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.32%, over one month by -7.09%, over three months by -3.65% and over the past year by -4.82%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.90 (which is 2.7% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Morgan Stanley Direct has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.17. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSDL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 15.6 | 9.2% |
P/E Trailing = 21.2029
P/E Forward = 7.8247
P/S = 3.2886
P/B = 0.7467
Revenue TTM = 309.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 164.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 195.6m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.90b USD (calculated: Debt 1.98b - CCE 80.2m)
Enterprise Value = 3.13b USD (1.23b + Debt 1.98b - CCE 80.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.27 (Ebit TTM 164.7m / Interest Expense TTM 129.9m)
EV/FCF = 11.07x (Enterprise Value 3.13b / FCF TTM 282.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.03% (FCF TTM 282.9m / Enterprise Value 3.13b)
FCF Margin = 91.47% (FCF TTM 282.9m / Revenue TTM 309.3m)
Net Margin = 19.32% (Net Income TTM 59.7m / Revenue TTM 309.3m)
Gross Margin = 68.27% ((Revenue TTM 309.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 98.1m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 61.25% (prev 79.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 3.13b / Total Assets 3.71b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.56% (Interest Expense 129.9m / Debt 1.98b)
Taxrate = 5.94% (3.62m / 60.9m)
NOPAT = 155.0m (EBIT 164.7m * (1 - 5.94%))
Current Ratio = 1.65 (Total Current Assets 134.1m / Total Current Liabilities 81.3m)
Debt / Equity = 1.20 (Debt 1.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.65b)
Debt / EBITDA = 9.72 (Net Debt 1.90b / EBITDA 195.6m)
Debt / FCF = 6.72 (Net Debt 1.90b / FCF TTM 282.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.57% (Net Income 59.7m / Total Assets 3.71b)
RoE = 3.48% (Net Income TTM 59.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.71b)
RoCE = 4.54% (EBIT 164.7m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 3.71b - Current Liab 81.3m))
RoIC = 4.29% (NOPAT 155.0m / Invested Capital 3.61b)
WACC = 6.80% (E(1.23b)/V(3.21b) * Re(7.81%) + D(1.98b)/V(3.21b) * Rd(6.56%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 7.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -79.17 | Cagr: -1.34%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈282.9m ; Y1≈284.1m ; Y5≈300.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 33.04 (EV 4.68b - Net Debt 1.90b = Equity 2.78b / Shares 84.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.53 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -41.13 | Revenue CAGR: -3.01% | SUE: -0.23 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.44 | Chg30d=-4.64% | Revisions=-62% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.80 | Chg30d=-1.89% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-10.4% | GrowthRev=-10.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.80 | Chg30d=-1.77% | Revisions=-44% | GrowthEPS=+0.0% | GrowthRev=+0.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -74% (up=1, down=15)