MNSO Stock Analysis: Miniso Holding | NYSE
Specialty Retail | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 2.542m USD | 12M Return: -59.7% | US66981J1025 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.17M
EPS Trend: 60.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.9 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Miniso Group Holding Limited (NYSE: MNSO) is a China-based investment holding company that retails and wholesales design-led lifestyle and pop toy products across Mainland China, other parts of Asia, North and Latin America, and Europe. Operating under two main brands, Miniso offers affordable lifestyle merchandise spanning home decor, electronics, textiles, beauty tools, cosmetics, snacks, fragrances, and stationery, while its TOP TOY brand focuses on collectible toys such as blind boxes, toy bricks, model figures, and collectible dolls. The company complements its physical retail footprint with brand licensing activities and online sales of lifestyle products. Founded in 2013 and headquartered in Guangzhou, Miniso listed on the NYSE in October 2020.
Miniso sits within the Consumer Discretionary sectors broadline retail subsector, competing in the value-oriented lifestyle variety store space alongside global discount and dollar-store operators. Its business model combines directly operated stores with a large franchise and distribution partner network, enabling rapid international store rollouts at relatively low capital cost. The TOP TOY brand extends the company into Chinas fast-growing collectible and pop culture toy market, a category that has gained traction among younger consumers and is closely associated with the blind-box retail trend popularized by domestic peers.
- Overseas same-store sales accelerate, lifting international revenue mix
- TOP TOY segment growth challenges Pop Mart in collectibles
- China consumer softness pressures domestic comparable store sales
| Net Income: 1.26b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.17 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 22.30% < 20% (prev 32.84%; Δ -10.54% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 2.62b > Net Income 1.26b |
| Net Debt (4.72b) to EBITDA (4.27b): 1.11 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.57 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (309.6m) vs 12m ago 0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 44.94% > 18% (prev 45.11%; Δ -0.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.15% > 50% (prev 69.91%; Δ 12.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.46 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.09b / Interest Expense TTM 478.8m) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 14.4b - Total Current Liabilities 9.18b) / Total Assets 30.4b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 6.58b / Total Assets 30.4b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 3.09b / Avg Total Assets 28.5b) |
| D: 0.52 (Book Value of Equity 10.3b / Total Liabilities 19.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.11 = A |
| DSRI: 3.0 (Receivables 2.96b/756.4m, Revenue 23.4b/18.6b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 45.11% / 44.94%) |
| AQI: 0.86 (AQ_t 0.24 / AQ_t-1 0.28) |
| SGI: 1.26 (Revenue 23.4b / 18.6b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.26b - CFO 2.62b) / TA 30.4b) |
| Beneish M = -1.28 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 8.78 with a total of 613,641 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.09%, over one month by -22.02%, over three months by -22.30% and over the past year by -59.66%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 8.40 (which is 4.3% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Miniso Holding has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MNSO.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 14.9 | 69.6% |
Market Cap CNY = 17.1b (2.54b USD * 6.71325 USD.CNY)
P/E Trailing = 14.0984
P/E Forward = 7.5472
P/S = 0.1079
P/B = 1.6928
Revenue TTM = 23.4b CNY
EBIT TTM = 3.09b CNY
EBITDA TTM = 4.27b CNY
Long Term Debt = 6.29b CNY (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.07b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.1b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.58b
Net Debt = 4.72b CNY (calculated: Debt 12.1b - CCE 7.40b)
Enterprise Value = 21.8b CNY (17.1b + Debt 12.1b - CCE 7.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.46 (Ebit TTM 3.09b / Interest Expense TTM 478.8m)
EV/FCF = 13.18x (Enterprise Value 21.8b / FCF TTM 1.65b)
FCF Yield = 7.59% (FCF TTM 1.65b / Enterprise Value 21.8b)
FCF Margin = 7.06% (FCF TTM 1.65b / Revenue TTM 23.4b)
Net Margin = 5.36% (Net Income TTM 1.26b / Revenue TTM 23.4b)
Gross Margin = 44.94% ((Revenue TTM 23.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 12.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.26% (prev 43.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 21.8b / Total Assets 30.4b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.95% (Interest Expense 478.8m / Debt 12.1b)
Taxrate = 37.44% (751.6m / 2.01b)
NOPAT = 1.94b (EBIT 3.09b * (1 - 37.44%))
Current Ratio = 1.57 (Total Current Assets 14.4b / Total Current Liabilities 9.18b)
Debt / Equity = 1.17 (Debt 12.1b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 10.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.11 (Net Debt 4.72b / EBITDA 4.27b)
Debt / FCF = 2.85 (Net Debt 4.72b / FCF TTM 1.65b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.41% (Net Income 1.26b / Total Assets 30.4b)
RoE = 11.79% (Net Income TTM 1.26b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.7b)
RoCE = 18.26% (EBIT 3.09b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.7b + L.T.Debt 6.29b))
RoIC = 8.04% (NOPAT 1.94b / Invested Capital 24.1b)
WACC = 5.72% (E(17.1b)/V(29.2b) * Re(8.03%) + D(12.1b)/V(29.2b) * Rd(3.95%) * (1-Tc(0.37)))
Discount Rate = 8.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -46.39 | Cagr: -0.03%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈1.55b ; Y1≈1.78b ; Y5≈2.62b
[DCF] Fair Price = 117.5 (EV 39.4b - Net Debt 4.72b = Equity 34.7b / Shares 295.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 60.13 | EPS CAGR: 7.65% | SUE: -0.18 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.72 | Revenue CAGR: 24.62% | SUE: -0.00 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.14 | Chg30d=-25.49% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.26 | Chg30d=-17.88% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=-11.8% | GrowthRev=+14.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.03 | Chg30d=-12.12% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=+21.5% | GrowthRev=+14.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -86% (up=0, down=18)