MCD Stock Analysis: McDonald’s | NYSE
Restaurants | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 187.268m USD | 12M Return: -7.4% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 1.21B
EPS Trend: 72.7%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 90.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
McDonalds Corporation (NYSE: MCD) operates, franchises, and licenses restaurants under the McDonalds brand in the United States and internationally. Its menu spans hamburgers, cheeseburgers, chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, frozen desserts, soft drinks, coffee, and limited-time promotional items, with breakfast offerings varying by market. Restaurant agreements are structured as conventional franchises, developmental licenses, or affiliates. The company was founded in 1940, is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, and has been publicly listed since 1965.
McDonalds is classified within the GICS Restaurants sub-industry under Consumer Discretionary, part of the quick-service restaurant (QSR) segment of the broader restaurant industry. Its hybrid model pairs company-operated locations with a predominantly franchised base, a structure common among large QSR chains that lowers the parents capital intensity and produces recurring royalty and rent revenue from franchisees.
- US same-store sales pressured by weakening low-income consumer spending
- Menu pricing and commodity inflation squeeze restaurant-level margins
- International expansion in China and other markets faces demand headwinds
- Digital ordering and loyalty program drive incremental traffic growth
| Net Income: 8.68b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.05% < 20% (prev 2.83%; Δ -0.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 10.5b > Net Income 8.68b |
| Net Debt (68.5b) to EBITDA (14.9b): 4.59 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.14 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (713.5m) vs 12m ago -0.65% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.35% > 18% (prev 56.83%; Δ 0.53% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 47.17% > 50% (prev 45.64%; Δ 1.54% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.92 > 6 (EBIT TTM 12.7b / Interest Expense TTM 1.61b) |
| A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 4.71b - Total Current Liabilities 4.15b) / Total Assets 60.0b |
| B: 1.18 (Retained Earnings 70.9b / Total Assets 60.0b) |
| C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 12.7b / Avg Total Assets 58.2b) |
| D: -0.02 (Book Value of Equity -1.29b / Total Liabilities 61.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.36 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 2.43b/2.39b, Revenue 27.4b/25.7b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 56.83% / 57.35%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.22) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 27.4b / 25.7b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 8.68b - CFO 10.5b) / TA 60.0b) |
| Beneish M = -3.05 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 270.67 with a total of 4,569,767 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.13%, over one month by +1.31%, over three months by -6.10% and over the past year by -7.35%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 259.00 (which is 4.3% or 2.2 ATR below the current price).
McDonald’s has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.91. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MCD.
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 14
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 324.7 | 20% |
P/E Trailing = 21.6484
P/E Forward = 20.2429
P/S = 6.8481
P/B = 146.0672
P/EG = 2.5194
Revenue TTM = 27.4b USD
EBIT TTM = 12.7b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.9b USD
Long Term Debt = 40.1b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 707.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 69.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 14.8b
Net Debt = 68.5b USD (calculated: Debt 69.7b - CCE 1.17b)
Enterprise Value = 256b USD (187b + Debt 69.7b - CCE 1.17b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.92 (Ebit TTM 12.7b / Interest Expense TTM 1.61b)
EV/FCF = 36.33x (Enterprise Value 256b / FCF TTM 7.04b)
FCF Yield = 2.75% (FCF TTM 7.04b / Enterprise Value 256b)
FCF Margin = 25.65% (FCF TTM 7.04b / Revenue TTM 27.4b)
Net Margin = 31.62% (Net Income TTM 8.68b / Revenue TTM 27.4b)
Gross Margin = 57.35% ((Revenue TTM 27.4b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.7b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 55.90% (prev 57.53%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.26 (Enterprise Value 256b / Total Assets 60.0b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.31% (Interest Expense 1.61b / Debt 69.7b)
Taxrate = 21.89% (2.43b / 11.1b)
NOPAT = 9.93b (EBIT 12.7b * (1 - 21.89%))
Current Ratio = 1.14 (Total Current Assets 4.71b / Total Current Liabilities 4.15b)
Debt / Equity = -54.17 (negative equity) (Debt 69.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.29b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.59 (Net Debt 68.5b / EBITDA 14.9b)
Debt / FCF = 9.73 (Net Debt 68.5b / FCF TTM 7.04b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -2.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.92% (Net Income 8.68b / Total Assets 60.0b)
RoE = -433.9% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 8.68b / Total Stockholder Equity -2.00b)
RoCE = 33.37% (EBIT 12.7b / Capital Employed (Equity -2.00b + L.T.Debt 40.1b))
RoIC = 17.92% (NOPAT 9.93b / Invested Capital 55.4b)
WACC = 4.76% (E(187b)/V(257b) * Re(5.86%) + D(69.7b)/V(257b) * Rd(2.31%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 5.86% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.54 | Cagr: -0.88%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.08% ; FCFF base≈6.91b ; Y1≈7.22b ; Y5≈8.30b
[DCF] Fair Price = 83.71 (EV 128b - Net Debt 68.5b = Equity 59.5b / Shares 710.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 5.00% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 72.69 | EPS CAGR: 2.25% | SUE: 1.31 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 90.78 | Revenue CAGR: 3.26% | SUE: 0.40 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.32 | Chg30d=-0.62% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=27
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.43 | Chg30d=-0.70% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=27
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=12.92 | Chg30d=-0.47% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+5.9% | GrowthRev=+5.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=14.12 | Chg30d=-0.68% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+9.3% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -79% (up=0, down=11)