MAIN Stock Analysis: Main Street Capital | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 4.972m USD | 12M Return: -11.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 33.6M
EPS Trend: -15.3%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 91.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Main Street Capital Corporation (MAIN) is a Business Development Company (BDC) and Small Business Investment Company (SBIC) that provides both debt and equity capital to lower middle market companies in the United States. The firm offers a one-stop financing solution, combining private equity, mezzanine debt, senior secured term loans, subordinated debt, and preferred and common equity to support recapitalizations, management buyouts, growth financings, acquisitions, and refinancings. Investments span both control and non-control equity positions, with a focus on partnering with entrepreneurs, business owners, and management teams. As a BDC, MAIN is regulated under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a structure that requires it to distribute at least 90% of its taxable income to shareholders and primarily lends to or invests in U.S. private or thinly traded public companies. The firm targets a broad range of industries, including manufacturing, healthcare, business services, energy, consumer products, and technology, reflecting the diversified nature of the U.S. lower middle market.
- Net interest income expands on floating-rate loan portfolio growth
- Credit quality improves as non-accruals decline
- Monthly dividend supported by stable distributable net investment income
| Net Income: 426.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.19 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -102.6% < 20% (prev 9.11%; Δ -111.7% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 342.3m > Net Income 426.3m |
| Net Debt (2.52b) to EBITDA (492.5m): 5.12 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.16 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (90.7m) vs 12m ago 2.19% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 86.39% > 18% (prev 82.62%; Δ 3.77% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 13.11% > 50% (prev 13.95%; Δ -0.84% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.71 > 6 (EBIT TTM 486.0m / Interest Expense TTM 130.9m) |
| A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 140.6m - Total Current Liabilities 886.9m) / Total Assets 5.83b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 485.4m / Total Assets 5.83b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 486.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.55b) |
| D: 1.13 (Book Value of Equity 3.09b / Total Liabilities 2.73b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.21 = BB |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 53.80 with a total of 377,161 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.45%, over one month by +4.87%, over three months by +1.82% and over the past year by -11.06%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 51.90 (which is 3.5% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Main Street Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.29. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MAIN.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 54.8 | 1.9% |
P/E Trailing = 11.2568
P/E Forward = 13.9082
P/S = 8.7315
P/B = 1.5967
P/EG = 1.7605
Revenue TTM = 727.6m USD
EBIT TTM = 486.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 492.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.65b USD (estimated: total debt 2.54b - short term 886.9m)
Short Term Debt = 886.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.54b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.52b USD (calculated: Debt 2.54b - CCE 20.8m)
Enterprise Value = 7.49b USD (4.97b + Debt 2.54b - CCE 20.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.71 (Ebit TTM 486.0m / Interest Expense TTM 130.9m)
EV/FCF = 21.89x (Enterprise Value 7.49b / FCF TTM 342.3m)
FCF Yield = 4.57% (FCF TTM 342.3m / Enterprise Value 7.49b)
FCF Margin = 47.04% (FCF TTM 342.3m / Revenue TTM 727.6m)
Net Margin = 58.59% (Net Income TTM 426.3m / Revenue TTM 727.6m)
Gross Margin = 86.39% ((Revenue TTM 727.6m - Cost of Revenue TTM 99.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 79.18% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.29 (Enterprise Value 7.49b / Total Assets 5.83b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.15% (Interest Expense 130.9m / Debt 2.54b)
Taxrate = 5.68% (25.7m / 452.0m)
NOPAT = 458.4m (EBIT 486.0m * (1 - 5.68%))
Current Ratio = 0.16 (Total Current Assets 140.6m / Total Current Liabilities 886.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.82 (Debt 2.54b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.12 (Net Debt 2.52b / EBITDA 492.5m)
Debt / FCF = 7.36 (Net Debt 2.52b / FCF TTM 342.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.98b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.68% (Net Income 426.3m / Total Assets 5.83b)
RoE = 14.32% (Net Income TTM 426.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.98b)
RoCE = 10.50% (EBIT 486.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.98b + L.T.Debt 1.65b))
RoIC = 7.89% (NOPAT 458.4m / Invested Capital 5.81b)
WACC = 7.14% (E(4.97b)/V(7.51b) * Re(8.30%) + D(2.54b)/V(7.51b) * Rd(5.15%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 8.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 93.90 | Cagr: 4.74%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈240.9m ; Y1≈276.1m ; Y5≈406.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 38.67 (EV 6.12b - Net Debt 2.52b = Equity 3.60b / Shares 93.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -15.28 | EPS CAGR: -0.33% | SUE: -2.58 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 91.01 | Revenue CAGR: 12.25% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.96 | Chg30d=-0.26% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.96 | Chg30d=-0.26% | Revisions=-50% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.78 | Chg30d=-1.59% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=-4.2% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.91 | Chg30d=-1.57% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+3.5% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -62% (up=4, down=22)