HMY Stock Analysis: Harmony Gold Mining | NYSE
Gold | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 9.679m USD | 12M Return: 17.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 48.8M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 98.1%
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is a South Africa-based gold miner with operations across three countries: South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The companys core asset base consists of nine underground operations situated in the Witwatersrand Basin and Kraaipan Greenstone Belt, alongside surface source operations in South Africa. Beyond gold, Harmony explores for and produces uranium, silver, and copper, including interests in the Hidden Valley open-pit mine and the Wafi-Golpu project in Papua New Guinea, as well as the Eva Copper Project in Queensland, Australia. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Randfontein, South Africa.
The Witwatersrand Basin, where a significant portion of Harmonys operations are located, has been one of the worlds most prolific gold-producing regions since its discovery in 1886, historically accounting for a substantial share of global gold output. As a multi-jurisdictional gold producer, Harmonys diversified geographic footprint helps mitigate country-specific operational and regulatory risks, while its exposure to byproducts such as silver, uranium, and copper provides additional revenue diversification within the broader mining sector.
- Gold prices rally on central bank purchases and safe haven demand
- South African underground operations face rising electricity and labor costs
- Wafi-Golpu project permitting advances Papua New Guinea copper-gold development
- Weak South African rand boosts US dollar gold revenue
| Net Income: 15.8b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.30 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -16.52% < 20% (prev 11.66%; Δ -28.18% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 25.7b > Net Income 15.8b |
| Net Debt (6.04b) to EBITDA (36.1b): 0.17 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (632.0m) vs 12m ago -0.10% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.30% > 18% (prev 33.31%; Δ 8.99% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 90.86% > 50% (prev 97.18%; Δ -6.33% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 41.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 30.6b / Interest Expense TTM 741.4m) |
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 16.3b - Total Current Liabilities 30.0b) / Total Assets 115b |
| B: 0.20 (Retained Earnings 23.3b / Total Assets 115b) |
| C: 0.33 (EBIT TTM 30.6b / Avg Total Assets 91.7b) |
| D: 0.83 (Book Value of Equity 51.8b / Total Liabilities 62.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.99 = A |
| DSRI: 0.77 (Receivables 3.76b/3.90b, Revenue 83.3b/67.0b) |
| GMI: 0.79 (GM 33.31% / 42.30%) |
| AQI: 0.66 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 83.3b / 67.0b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 15.8b - CFO 25.7b) / TA 115b) |
| Beneish M = -3.44 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 15.87 with a total of 1,557,728 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.75%, over one month by +4.55%, over three months by -3.58% and over the past year by +17.08%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 14.60 (which is 8% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Harmony Gold Mining has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HMY.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 20.7 | 30.6% |
Market Cap ZAR = 162b (9.68b USD * 16.7097 USD.ZAR)
P/E Trailing = 10.1083
P/E Forward = 20.6612
P/S = 2.028
P/B = 3.1352
P/EG = 0.0255
Revenue TTM = 83.3b ZAR
EBIT TTM = 30.6b ZAR
EBITDA TTM = 36.1b ZAR
Long Term Debt = 1.63b ZAR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.2b ZAR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 13.4b ZAR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 506.0m
Net Debt = 6.04b ZAR (calculated: Debt 13.4b - CCE 7.35b)
Enterprise Value = 168b ZAR (162b + Debt 13.4b - CCE 7.35b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 41.20 (Ebit TTM 30.6b / Interest Expense TTM 741.4m)
EV/FCF = 15.43x (Enterprise Value 168b / FCF TTM 10.9b)
FCF Yield = 6.48% (FCF TTM 10.9b / Enterprise Value 168b)
FCF Margin = 13.05% (FCF TTM 10.9b / Revenue TTM 83.3b)
Net Margin = 18.98% (Net Income TTM 15.8b / Revenue TTM 83.3b)
Gross Margin = 42.30% ((Revenue TTM 83.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 48.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.08% (prev 40.06%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.47 (Enterprise Value 168b / Total Assets 115b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.54% (Interest Expense 741.4m / Debt 13.4b)
Taxrate = 34.36% (8.37b / 24.4b)
NOPAT = 20.1b (EBIT 30.6b * (1 - 34.36%))
Current Ratio = 0.54 (Total Current Assets 16.3b / Total Current Liabilities 30.0b)
Debt / Equity = 0.26 (Debt 13.4b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 51.8b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.17 (Net Debt 6.04b / EBITDA 36.1b)
Debt / FCF = 0.56 (Net Debt 6.04b / FCF TTM 10.9b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 46.7b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 17.24% (Net Income 15.8b / Total Assets 115b)
RoE = 33.89% (Net Income TTM 15.8b / Total Stockholder Equity 46.7b)
RoCE = 63.25% (EBIT 30.6b / Capital Employed (Equity 46.7b + L.T.Debt 1.63b))
RoIC = 21.90% (NOPAT 20.1b / Invested Capital 91.6b)
WACC = 8.56% (E(162b)/V(175b) * Re(8.97%) + D(13.4b)/V(175b) * Rd(5.54%) * (1-Tc(0.34)))
Discount Rate = 8.97% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 64.46 | Cagr: 0.79%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.19% ; FCFF base≈10.3b ; Y1≈11.8b ; Y5≈17.1b
[DCF] Fair Price = 388.2 (EV 249b - Net Debt 6.04b = Equity 243b / Shares 624.8m; r=8.56% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 14.42% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.06 | Revenue CAGR: 35.36% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=2.74 | Chg30d=-3.77% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+112.7% | GrowthRev=+31.0%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=3.34 | Chg30d=+0.60% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+21.7% | GrowthRev=+21.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=1, down=1)