HMY Stock Analysis: Harmony Gold Mining | NYSE
Gold | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 12.487m USD | 12M Return: 13% | US4132163001 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 82.6M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 97.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited (HMY) is a South Africa-based gold miner with operations across three countries: South Africa, Papua New Guinea, and Australia. The companys core asset base consists of nine underground operations situated in the Witwatersrand Basin and Kraaipan Greenstone Belt, alongside surface source operations in South Africa. Beyond gold, Harmony explores for and produces uranium, silver, and copper, including interests in the Hidden Valley open-pit mine and the Wafi-Golpu project in Papua New Guinea, as well as the Eva Copper Project in Queensland, Australia. The company was incorporated in 1950 and is headquartered in Randfontein, South Africa.
The Witwatersrand Basin, where a significant portion of Harmonys operations are located, has been one of the worlds most prolific gold-producing regions since its discovery in 1886, historically accounting for a substantial share of global gold output. As a multi-jurisdictional gold producer, Harmonys diversified geographic footprint helps mitigate country-specific operational and regulatory risks, while its exposure to byproducts such as silver, uranium, and copper provides additional revenue diversification within the broader mining sector.
- Gold prices rally on central bank purchases and safe haven demand
- South African underground operations face rising electricity and labor costs
- Wafi-Golpu project permitting advances Papua New Guinea copper-gold development
- Weak South African rand boosts US dollar gold revenue
| Net Income: 28.7b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.35 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.69% < 20% (prev 12.07%; Δ -15.76% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.27 > 3% & CFO 33.5b > Net Income 28.7b |
| Net Debt (488.1m) to EBITDA (54.6b): 0.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (625.0m) vs 12m ago -1.21% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 46.83% > 18% (prev 39.65%; Δ 7.17% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 104.7% > 50% (prev 95.35%; Δ 9.36% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 29.20 > 6 (EBIT TTM 47.3b / Interest Expense TTM 1.62b) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 20.2b - Total Current Liabilities 24.1b) / Total Assets 125b |
| B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 38.0b / Total Assets 125b) |
| C: 0.47 (EBIT TTM 47.3b / Avg Total Assets 101b) |
| D: 1.48 (Book Value of Equity 74.5b / Total Liabilities 50.2b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.48 = AAA |
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 5.95b/4.00b, Revenue 106b/73.9b) |
| GMI: 0.85 (GM 39.65% / 46.83%) |
| AQI: 1.07 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.43 (Revenue 106b / 73.9b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 28.7b - CFO 33.5b) / TA 125b) |
| Beneish M = -2.79 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 18.97 with a total of 2,388,953 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.77%, over one month by -17.34%, over three months by +25.46% and over the past year by +12.99%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 17.90 (which is 5.6% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Harmony Gold Mining has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HMY.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 21.5 | 13.4% |
P/E Trailing = 6.75
P/E Forward = 20.6612
P/S = 0.1258
P/B = 2.6003
P/EG = 0.0255
Revenue TTM = 106b USD
EBIT TTM = 47.3b USD
EBITDA TTM = 54.6b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.63b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 9.40b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 9.91b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 506.0m
Net Debt = 488.1m USD (calculated: Debt 9.91b - CCE 9.42b)
Enterprise Value = 13.0b USD (12.5b + Debt 9.91b - CCE 9.42b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 29.20 (Ebit TTM 47.3b / Interest Expense TTM 1.62b)
EV/FCF = 0.83x (Enterprise Value 13.0b / FCF TTM 15.7b)
FCF Yield = 121.2% (FCF TTM 15.7b / Enterprise Value 13.0b)
FCF Margin = 14.83% (FCF TTM 15.7b / Revenue TTM 106b)
Net Margin = 27.08% (Net Income TTM 28.7b / Revenue TTM 106b)
Gross Margin = 46.83% ((Revenue TTM 106b - Cost of Revenue TTM 56.4b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.98% (prev 44.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 13.0b / Total Assets 125b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 16.36% (Interest Expense 1.62b / Debt 9.91b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (8.66b / 37.5b)
NOPAT = 36.4b (EBIT 47.3b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 0.84 (Total Current Assets 20.2b / Total Current Liabilities 24.1b)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 9.91b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 74.5b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.01 (Net Debt 488.1m / EBITDA 54.6b)
Debt / FCF = 0.03 (Net Debt 488.1m / FCF TTM 15.7b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 55.1b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 28.35% (Net Income 28.7b / Total Assets 125b)
RoE = 52.10% (Net Income TTM 28.7b / Total Stockholder Equity 55.1b)
RoCE = 83.40% (EBIT 47.3b / Capital Employed (Equity 55.1b + L.T.Debt 1.63b))
RoIC = 34.66% (NOPAT 36.4b / Invested Capital 105b)
WACC = 10.24% (E(12.5b)/V(22.4b) * Re(8.39%) + D(9.91b)/V(22.4b) * Rd(16.36%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 39.08 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 72.10% ; FCFF base≈13.7b ; Y1≈15.8b ; Y5≈23.2b
[DCF] Fair Price = 417.7 (EV 262b - Net Debt 488.1m = Equity 261b / Shares 625.0m; r=10.24% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.85 | Revenue CAGR: 41.59% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=2.74 | Chg30d=-3.77% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+112.7% | GrowthRev=+31.0%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=3.21 | Chg30d=-3.82% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+24.5% | GrowthRev=+11.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)