FLO Stock Analysis: Flowers Foods | NYSE
Packaged Foods | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.260m USD | 12M Return: -50.9% | US3434981011 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 50.6M
EPS Trend: -75.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 77.3%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Flowers Foods, Inc. (NYSE: FLO) is a U.S.-based producer and marketer of packaged bakery foods, offering fresh breads, buns, rolls, bagels, tortillas, and snack items such as cakes, cookies, and crackers under brands including Natures Own, Wonder, DKB, Canyon Bakehouse, Simple Mills, and Tastykake. The company distributes its products through a combination of direct-store-delivery and warehouse delivery networks, operating its own bakeries and serving a broad customer base that spans retail grocers, foodservice distributors, restaurants, mass merchandisers, and government and institutional accounts. Founded in 1919 and headquartered in Thomasville, Georgia, Flowers Foods is classified within the Consumer Staples sector under the Packaged Foods & Meats industry, a category characterized by relatively stable demand driven by everyday grocery consumption rather than discretionary spending cycles.
- Wheat and commodity input costs pressure bakery margins
- Simple Mills acquisition expands better-for-you product portfolio
- DSD distribution network defends fresh bread market share
| Net Income: 55.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.44% < 20% (prev 2.97%; Δ -7.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 431.1m > Net Income 55.2m |
| Net Debt (2.27b) to EBITDA (453.8m): 5.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.77 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (212.1m) vs 12m ago 0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.89% > 18% (prev 49.38%; Δ -1.49% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 122.5% > 50% (prev 117.4%; Δ 5.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.73 > 6 (EBIT TTM 285.1m / Interest Expense TTM 76.5m) |
| A: -0.06 (Total Current Assets 786.3m - Total Current Liabilities 1.02b) / Total Assets 4.19b |
| B: 0.20 (Retained Earnings 853.8m / Total Assets 4.19b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 285.1m / Avg Total Assets 4.27b) |
| D: 0.46 (Book Value of Equity 1.32b / Total Liabilities 2.86b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.24 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.96 (Receivables 385.0m/391.7m, Revenue 5.22b/5.10b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 49.38% / 47.89%) |
| AQI: 0.19 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.54) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 5.22b / 5.10b) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 55.2m - CFO 431.1m) / TA 4.19b) |
| Beneish M = -3.50 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.74 with a total of 8,243,522 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.37%, over one month by -17.58%, over three months by -22.90% and over the past year by -50.92%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 5.40 (which is 5.9% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).
Flowers Foods has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.13. Therefore, it is recommended to hold FLO.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 7.9 | 37.6% |
P/E Trailing = 22.8462
P/E Forward = 22.8833
P/S = 0.2388
P/B = 0.9517
P/EG = 6.0953
Revenue TTM = 5.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 285.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 453.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.29b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 479.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.32b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 317.1m
Net Debt = 2.27b USD (calculated: Debt 2.32b - CCE 52.8m)
Enterprise Value = 3.53b USD (1.26b + Debt 2.32b - CCE 52.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.73 (Ebit TTM 285.1m / Interest Expense TTM 76.5m)
EV/FCF = 11.18x (Enterprise Value 3.53b / FCF TTM 315.9m)
FCF Yield = 8.94% (FCF TTM 315.9m / Enterprise Value 3.53b)
FCF Margin = 6.05% (FCF TTM 315.9m / Revenue TTM 5.22b)
Net Margin = 1.06% (Net Income TTM 55.2m / Revenue TTM 5.22b)
Gross Margin = 47.89% ((Revenue TTM 5.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.72b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 48.45% (prev 49.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 3.53b / Total Assets 4.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.29% (Interest Expense 76.5m / Debt 2.32b)
Taxrate = 30.79% (24.5m / 79.7m)
NOPAT = 197.3m (EBIT 285.1m * (1 - 30.79%))
Current Ratio = 0.77 (Total Current Assets 786.3m / Total Current Liabilities 1.02b)
Debt / Equity = 1.76 (Debt 2.32b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.01 (Net Debt 2.27b / EBITDA 453.8m)
Debt / FCF = 7.19 (Net Debt 2.27b / FCF TTM 315.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.34b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.29% (Net Income 55.2m / Total Assets 4.19b)
RoE = 4.13% (Net Income TTM 55.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.34b)
RoCE = 10.87% (EBIT 285.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.34b + L.T.Debt 1.29b))
RoIC = 5.49% (NOPAT 197.3m / Invested Capital 3.59b)
WACC = 3.83% (E(1.26b)/V(3.58b) * Re(6.69%) + D(2.32b)/V(3.58b) * Rd(3.29%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 6.69% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -16.42 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈342.9m ; Y1≈300.7m ; Y5≈243.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 7.68 (EV 3.90b - Net Debt 2.27b = Equity 1.63b / Shares 212.1m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -75.07 | EPS CAGR: -7.39% | SUE: -0.73 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 77.34 | Revenue CAGR: 1.20% | SUE: -2.69 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=-10.88% | Revisions=-57% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.78 | Chg30d=-5.54% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-28.2% | GrowthRev=-3.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.71 | Chg30d=-13.13% | Revisions=-62% | GrowthEPS=-8.7% | GrowthRev=-0.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -82% (up=0, down=14)