FERG Stock Analysis: Ferguson | NYSE
Industrial Distribution | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 44.348m USD | 12M Return: 5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 270M
EPS Trend: 86.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 90.3%
Qual. Beats: -2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Ferguson Enterprises Inc. is a leading North American distributor of essential water and air solutions, serving specialized professional customers across the United States and Canada. The company offers a broad range of products including plumbing supplies, pipe, valves and fittings (PVF), heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment, appliances, lighting, and water and wastewater treatment solutions. Its customer base spans residential, commercial, industrial, and infrastructure end-markets, complemented by value-added services such as design, fabrication, valve actuation, kitting, installation, project management, and after-sales support. Products are delivered through an extensive network of distribution centers, branches, showrooms, sales representatives, and e-commerce channels. Founded in 1953, Ferguson is headquartered in Newport News, Virginia, and trades on the NYSE under the ticker FERG.
As a member of the Trading Companies & Distributors sub-industry within the Industrials sector, Ferguson operates a classic distribution model that sources products from manufacturers and resells them to professional installers, contractors, and industrial buyers. Distributors in this space typically compete on the breadth of inventory, speed of delivery, technical expertise, and the depth of value-added services rather than on price alone, with profitability driven by inventory turnover, supplier relationships, and the efficiency of their branch and logistics networks.
- US housing slowdown pressures residential plumbing and HVAC repair demand
- Non-residential and infrastructure projects drive segment revenue growth
- Gross margins expand on pricing actions and supplier cost discipline
| Net Income: 2.07b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.38 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 14.12% < 20% (prev 12.59%; Δ 1.53% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 1.24b > Net Income 2.07b |
| Net Debt (7.22b) to EBITDA (3.32b): 2.17 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (194.8m) vs 12m ago -1.86% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 30.74% > 18% (prev 30.46%; Δ 0.28% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 180.5% > 50% (prev 175.0%; Δ 5.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.94b / Interest Expense TTM 189.0m) |
| A: 0.25 (Total Current Assets 10.2b - Total Current Liabilities 5.70b) / Total Assets 17.8b |
| B: 0.42 (Retained Earnings 7.40b / Total Assets 17.8b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 2.94b / Avg Total Assets 17.5b) |
| D: 0.49 (Book Value of Equity 5.87b / Total Liabilities 11.9b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.65 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 3.67b/3.75b, Revenue 31.6b/30.2b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 30.46% / 30.74%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.23) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 31.6b / 30.2b) |
| TATA: 0.05 (NI 2.07b - CFO 1.24b) / TA 17.8b) |
| Beneish M = -3.09 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 234.10 with a total of 787,519 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.22%, over one month by -1.89%, over three months by -11.06% and over the past year by +4.96%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 224.90 (which is 3.9% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Ferguson has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FERG.
- StrongBuy: 10
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 279.4 | 19.4% |
P/E Trailing = 22.6182
P/E Forward = 18.0832
P/S = 1.4279
P/B = 7.5815
P/EG = 1.2066
Revenue TTM = 31.6b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.94b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.32b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.75b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 613.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 8.04b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.95b
Net Debt = 7.22b USD (calculated: Debt 8.04b - CCE 820.0m)
Enterprise Value = 51.6b USD (44.3b + Debt 8.04b - CCE 820.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.56 (Ebit TTM 2.94b / Interest Expense TTM 189.0m)
EV/FCF = 51.13x (Enterprise Value 51.6b / FCF TTM 1.01b)
FCF Yield = 1.96% (FCF TTM 1.01b / Enterprise Value 51.6b)
FCF Margin = 3.19% (FCF TTM 1.01b / Revenue TTM 31.6b)
Net Margin = 6.55% (Net Income TTM 2.07b / Revenue TTM 31.6b)
Gross Margin = 30.74% ((Revenue TTM 31.6b - Cost of Revenue TTM 21.9b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.02% (prev 29.43%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.90 (Enterprise Value 51.6b / Total Assets 17.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.35% (Interest Expense 189.0m / Debt 8.04b)
Taxrate = 22.59% (605.0m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 2.28b (EBIT 2.94b * (1 - 22.59%))
Current Ratio = 1.78 (Total Current Assets 10.2b / Total Current Liabilities 5.70b)
Debt / Equity = 1.37 (Debt 8.04b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.87b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.17 (Net Debt 7.22b / EBITDA 3.32b)
Debt / FCF = 7.16 (Net Debt 7.22b / FCF TTM 1.01b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.83% (Net Income 2.07b / Total Assets 17.8b)
RoE = 35.11% (Net Income TTM 2.07b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.90b)
RoCE = 30.45% (EBIT 2.94b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.90b + L.T.Debt 3.75b))
RoIC = 19.15% (NOPAT 2.28b / Invested Capital 11.9b)
WACC = 8.99% (E(44.3b)/V(52.4b) * Re(10.29%) + D(8.04b)/V(52.4b) * Rd(2.35%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 10.29% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.81 | Cagr: -2.01%
[DCF] Terminal Value 70.73% ; FCFF base≈1.16b ; Y1≈1.02b ; Y5≈822.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 24.35 (EV 11.9b - Net Debt 7.22b = Equity 4.72b / Shares 193.9m; r=8.99% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 86.80 | EPS CAGR: 6.72% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.26 | Revenue CAGR: 2.89% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=3.30 | Chg30d=+0.33% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=17
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=3.29 | Chg30d=-0.11% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-07-31): EPS=10.33 | Chg30d=+0.96% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+10.9% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=11.26 | Chg30d=-0.22% | Revisions=+52% | GrowthEPS=+6.5% | GrowthRev=+4.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +36% (up=40, down=18)