DEC Stock Analysis: Diversified Energy | NYSE

Oil & Gas Integrated | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 914m USD | 12M Return: -10.7% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Natural Gas, Crude Oil, Liquids, Production
Total Rating 21
Safety 15
Buy Signal -0.89
Oil & Gas Integrated
Industry Rotation: +24.3
Market Cap: 914M
Avg Turnover: 12.8M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility43.8%
VaR 5th Pctl7.74%
VaR vs Median7.30%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.10
Rel. Str. IBD16.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group12.9
Character TTM
Beta0.492
Beta Downside1.062
Hurst Exponent0.502
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD48.89%
CAGR/Max DD-0.21
CAGR/Mean DD-0.39
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of DEC over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": null, "2021-12": null, "2022-06": null, "2022-12": null, "2023-06": null, "2023-09": null, "2023-12": null, "2024-06": null, "2024-12": null, "2025-03": null, "2025-06": null, "2025-12": null, "2026-03": 0.7,
Revenue Revenue of DEC over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 314.101, 2021-12: 662.942, 2022-06: 899.65, 2022-12: 945.85, 2023-06: 455.998, 2023-09: 175.3955, 2023-12: 350.791, 2024-06: 348.681, 2024-12: 446.16, 2025-03: 62.515, 2025-06: 738.315, 2025-12: 873.14, 2026-03: 873.14,
Rev. CAGR: 50.46%
Rev. Trend: 78.3%
Last SUE: 1.50
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution
High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage
Interest Coverage Ratio Critical
Beneish M-Score Likely Earnings Manipulation
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 7.7 years of data

Jan -4.4% 38
Feb +2.9% 16
Mar -0.5% 15
Apr -1.9% 16
May +4.0% 9
Jun -7.5% 28
Jul +4.9% 36
Aug +1.6% 0
Sep -4.3% 54
Oct -2.7% 19
Nov +8.3% 36
Dec -1.5% 30

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: DEC Diversified Energy

Diversified Energy Company plc (NYSE: DEC) is an independent U.S. energy company engaged in the production, transportation, and marketing of natural gas, oil, and natural gas liquids (NGLs). The company operates across multiple major U.S. producing regions, with primary assets in the Appalachian and Central regions, and additional operations spanning the Bossier and Haynesville shales, Cotton Valley sandstones, Barnett Shale, Mid-Continent, Anadarko Basin, and Permian Basin. Founded in 2001 and headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama, DEC listed on the NYSE in December 2023 at a small-cap market value of approximately $940 million.

As an exploration and production (E&P) operator, Diversifieds business model is differentiated by its focus on acquiring and optimizing mature, long-life producing wells rather than high-risk exploration drilling. The company is also notable within the E&P sector for its emphasis on emissions reduction and well-retirement initiatives tied to carbon-credit generation, an approach increasingly used by operators managing legacy upstream assets across U.S. shale and conventional basins.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Natural gas prices decline as supply growth outpaces LNG export demand
  • Asset acquisitions boost production volumes across multiple US basins
  • Debt levels and capital returns draw increased investor scrutiny
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 395.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.81 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -16.71% < 20% (prev -34.50%; Δ 17.79% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 594.2m > Net Income 395.1m
Net Debt (3.07b) to EBITDA (577.4m): 5.32 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.60 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (74.5m) vs 12m ago 56.60% < -2%
Gross Margin: 10.60% > 18% (prev 27.33%; Δ -16.72% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 50.08% > 50% (prev 33.00%; Δ 17.08% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.21 > 6 (EBIT TTM 164.9m / Interest Expense TTM 774.4m)
Altman Z'' -0.30
A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 650.2m - Total Current Liabilities 1.08b) / Total Assets 6.17b
B: -0.08 (Retained Earnings -507.8m / Total Assets 6.17b)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 164.9m / Avg Total Assets 5.09b)
D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 984.1m / Total Liabilities 5.17b)
Altman-Z'' = -0.30 = B
Beneish M 1.00
DSRI: 0.90 (Receivables 408.4m/234.4m, Revenue 2.55b/1.32b)
GMI: 2.58 (GM 27.33% / 10.60%)
AQI: 9.57 (AQ_t 0.82 / AQ_t-1 0.09)
SGI: 1.93 (Revenue 2.55b / 1.32b)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 395.1m - CFO 594.2m) / TA 6.17b)
Beneish M = 4.07 (Cap -4..+1) = D
What is the price of DEC shares?

As of July 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.71 with a total of 1,339,831 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.27%, over one month by -5.71%, over three months by -17.27% and over the past year by -10.74%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 12.00 (which is 5.6% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is DEC a buy, sell or hold?

Diversified Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.67. Therefore, it is recommended to buy DEC.

  • StrongBuy: 7
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 1
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the DEC price?
Analysts Target Price 20.4 60.3%
Diversified Energy (DEC) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 28 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 914.0m (914.0m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 1.66
P/E Forward = 1.8825
P/S = 0.4967
P/B = 1.2464
Revenue TTM = 2.55b USD
EBIT TTM = 164.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 577.4m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.65b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 260.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.10b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 75.7m
Net Debt = 3.07b USD (calculated: Debt 3.10b - CCE 29.7m)
Enterprise Value = 3.99b USD (914.0m + Debt 3.10b - CCE 29.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.21 (Ebit TTM 164.9m / Interest Expense TTM 774.4m)
EV/FCF = 11.05x (Enterprise Value 3.99b / FCF TTM 360.9m)
FCF Yield = 9.05% (FCF TTM 360.9m / Enterprise Value 3.99b)
FCF Margin = 14.17% (FCF TTM 360.9m / Revenue TTM 2.55b)
Net Margin = 15.51% (Net Income TTM 395.1m / Revenue TTM 2.55b)
Gross Margin = 10.60% ((Revenue TTM 2.55b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.28b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -2.39% (prev -2.39%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 3.99b / Total Assets 6.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 24.95% (Interest Expense 774.4m / Debt 3.10b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 130.3m (EBIT 164.9m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.60 (Total Current Assets 650.2m / Total Current Liabilities 1.08b)
Debt / Equity = 3.15 (Debt 3.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 984.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.32 (Net Debt 3.07b / EBITDA 577.4m)
Debt / FCF = 8.52 (Net Debt 3.07b / FCF TTM 360.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 784.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.77% (Net Income 395.1m / Total Assets 6.17b)
RoE = 50.38% (Net Income TTM 395.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 784.2m)
RoCE = 4.80% (EBIT 164.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 784.2m + L.T.Debt 2.65b))
RoIC = 2.45% (NOPAT 130.3m / Invested Capital 5.32b)
WACC = 16.98% (E(914.0m)/V(4.02b) * Re(7.71%) + D(3.10b)/V(4.02b) * Rd(24.95%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.71% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 91.60 | Cagr: 29.76%
[DCF] Terminal Value 47.83% ; FCFF base≈451.3m ; Y1≈395.8m ; Y5≈319.8m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.16b - Net Debt 3.07b = -914.0m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 Revenue Correlation: 78.28 | Revenue CAGR: 50.46% | SUE: 1.50 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-13.75% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.34 | Chg30d=-28.42% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.18 | Chg30d=-2.34% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-27.6% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.42 | Chg30d=-0.31% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-24.0% | GrowthRev=-3.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=3, down=3)