CF Stock Analysis: CF Industries Holdings | NYSE
Agricultural Inputs | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 19.214m USD | 12M Return: 32.2% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 275M
EPS Trend: -1.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -20.6%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
CF Industries Holdings, Inc. is a leading global manufacturer of nitrogen-based fertilizers, with operations spanning North America, Europe, and other international markets. The company produces ammonia, granular urea, urea ammonium nitrate solution (UAN), ammonium nitrate, diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, and nitric acid, serving a diverse customer base that includes agricultural cooperatives, retailers, independent fertilizer distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users.
Headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, and founded in 1946, CF Industries is classified within the Materials sector under the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry. As a large-cap company, it plays a significant role in the global nitrogen fertilizer supply chain, which is essential for agricultural productivity and food security. The production of nitrogen fertilizers is energy-intensive, particularly ammonia, making natural gas pricing a critical factor influencing industry profitability.
- Natural gas prices determine ammonia production cost advantage
- Global nitrogen supply tightens on Russian export curbs
- Capital returns expand via ongoing share buybacks and dividend hikes
| Net Income: 1.76b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.88 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 32.85% < 20% (prev 24.38%; Δ 8.47% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.18 > 3% & CFO 2.66b > Net Income 1.76b |
| Net Debt (1.98b) to EBITDA (3.71b): 0.53 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 3.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (154.5m) vs 12m ago -8.47% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 40.41% > 18% (prev 37.93%; Δ 2.47% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.07% > 50% (prev 46.06%; Δ 7.01% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.85 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.80b / Interest Expense TTM 157.0m) |
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 3.39b - Total Current Liabilities 958.0m) / Total Assets 14.6b |
| B: 0.30 (Retained Earnings 4.41b / Total Assets 14.6b) |
| C: 0.20 (EBIT TTM 2.80b / Avg Total Assets 14.0b) |
| D: 0.84 (Book Value of Equity 5.34b / Total Liabilities 6.35b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.31 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.03 (Receivables 726.0m/582.0m, Revenue 7.41b/6.13b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 37.93% / 40.41%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.21 (Revenue 7.41b / 6.13b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 1.76b - CFO 2.66b) / TA 14.6b) |
| Beneish M = -2.95 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 119.78 with a total of 2,460,214 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.07%, over one month by +13.64%, over three months by -2.72% and over the past year by +32.23%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 108.40 (which is 9.5% or 2.7 ATR below the current price).
CF Industries Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.10. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CF.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 18
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 125.3 | 4.6% |
P/E Trailing = 11.2676
P/E Forward = 7.2993
P/S = 2.5941
P/B = 3.644
P/EG = 3.7624
Revenue TTM = 7.41b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.80b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.71b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.22b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 107.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 404.0m
Net Debt = 1.98b USD (calculated: Debt 4.02b - CCE 2.04b)
Enterprise Value = 21.2b USD (19.2b + Debt 4.02b - CCE 2.04b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.85 (Ebit TTM 2.80b / Interest Expense TTM 157.0m)
EV/FCF = 13.08x (Enterprise Value 21.2b / FCF TTM 1.62b)
FCF Yield = 7.65% (FCF TTM 1.62b / Enterprise Value 21.2b)
FCF Margin = 21.88% (FCF TTM 1.62b / Revenue TTM 7.41b)
Net Margin = 23.73% (Net Income TTM 1.76b / Revenue TTM 7.41b)
Gross Margin = 40.41% ((Revenue TTM 7.41b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 37.56% (prev 41.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.45 (Enterprise Value 21.2b / Total Assets 14.6b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.90% (Interest Expense 157.0m / Debt 4.02b)
Taxrate = 19.77% (523.0m / 2.65b)
NOPAT = 2.25b (EBIT 2.80b * (1 - 19.77%))
Current Ratio = 3.54 (Total Current Assets 3.39b / Total Current Liabilities 958.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.75 (Debt 4.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.34b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.53 (Net Debt 1.98b / EBITDA 3.71b)
Debt / FCF = 1.22 (Net Debt 1.98b / FCF TTM 1.62b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.00b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.59% (Net Income 1.76b / Total Assets 14.6b)
RoE = 35.17% (Net Income TTM 1.76b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.00b)
RoCE = 34.12% (EBIT 2.80b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.00b + L.T.Debt 3.22b))
RoIC = 16.80% (NOPAT 2.25b / Invested Capital 13.4b)
WACC = 6.35% (E(19.2b)/V(23.2b) * Re(7.02%) + D(4.02b)/V(23.2b) * Rd(3.90%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.02% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -99.59 | Cagr: -8.91%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.48% ; FCFF base≈1.72b ; Y1≈1.54b ; Y5≈1.29b
[DCF] Fair Price = 121.7 (EV 20.7b - Net Debt 1.98b = Equity 18.7b / Shares 153.6m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -12.85% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: -1.89 | EPS CAGR: -0.46% | SUE: 0.63 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -20.62 | Revenue CAGR: -2.75% | SUE: 2.43 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=5.57 | Chg30d=-4.21% | Revisions=+38% | Analysts=5
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.10 | Chg30d=-7.69% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=17.35 | Chg30d=-1.50% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+93.4% | GrowthRev=+21.6%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=10.80 | Chg30d=-2.22% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-37.8% | GrowthRev=-15.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +64% (up=10, down=1)