BFS Stock Analysis: Saul Centers | NYSE

Shopping Centers, Mixed-Use Properties, Land Development, Commercial Properties

Total Rating 39

Safety 53

Buy Signal -0.75

REIT - Retail
Industry Rotation: +2.8

Market Cap: 1.05B
Avg Turnover: 4.07M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility19.3%

VaR 5^th Pctl3.41%

VaR vs Median7.55%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.03

Rel. Str. IBD19.4

Rel. Str. Peer Group6.5

Character TTM

Beta-0.047

Beta Downside-0.018

Hurst Exponent0.471

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD24.07%

CAGR/Max DD0.05

CAGR/Mean DD0.13

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -7.24%
EPS Trend: -77.3%

Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 2

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 6.36%
Rev. Trend: 99.0%

Last SUE: -0.09
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Earnings Expected To Drop (P/E To P/E Forward)

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -0.1% 7

Feb -3.4% 19

Mar +1.7% 8

Apr -1.8% 11

May -0.7% 20

Jun +1.6% 36

Jul -0.3% 5

Aug -0.9% 17

Sep -2.0% 29

Oct -1.5% 11

Nov +6.2% 65

Dec +0.6% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: BFS Saul Centers

Saul Centers, Inc. (NYSE: BFS) is a self-managed, self-administered equity real estate investment trust (REIT) based in Bethesda, Maryland, and incorporated in the state on June 10, 1993. The company operates and manages a portfolio of 62 properties, consisting of 59 community and neighborhood shopping centers and mixed-use properties, along with three non-operating land and development properties.

More than 85% of the companys property operating income is generated by assets located in the Washington, DC/Baltimore metropolitan area, reflecting a concentrated geographic footprint in the Mid-Atlantic region. As a Retail REIT under the GICS classification, Saul Centers generates revenue primarily by leasing space to tenants across its grocery-anchored and neighborhood shopping center properties, collecting base rents, expense recoveries, and percentage rent.

REITs like Saul Centers are generally required by U.S. tax law to distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends, which typically makes them income-oriented investments. The retail shopping center segment in which BFS operates tends to be anchored by necessity-based tenants such as grocery stores and service providers, which historically provide more stable foot traffic and occupancy compared to discretionary retail formats.

Headlines to Watch Out For

DC/Baltimore metro concentration exposes portfolio to regional economic shifts
Interest rate cuts pressure cap rates and borrowing costs
Grocery-anchored shopping centers maintain occupancy amid retail headwinds

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.0

Net Income: 34.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.23 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 5.92% < 20% (prev -76.21%; Δ 82.14% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 102.9m > Net Income 34.9m
Net Debt (1.62b) to EBITDA (180.3m): 8.97 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.35 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (24.2m) vs 12m ago 0.0% < -2%
Gross Margin: 74.24% > 18% (prev 72.01%; Δ 2.23% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 14.06% > 50% (prev 12.99%; Δ 1.07% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 118.2m / Interest Expense TTM 76.7m)

Altman Z'' 0.07

A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 68.7m - Total Current Liabilities 50.8m) / Total Assets 2.16b
B: -0.16 (Retained Earnings -354.5m / Total Assets 2.16b)
C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 118.2m / Avg Total Assets 2.15b)
D: 0.18 (Book Value of Equity 295.9m / Total Liabilities 1.69b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.07 = B

Beneish M -2.89

DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 62.8m/52.6m, Revenue 302.2m/277.9m)
GMI: 0.97 (GM 72.01% / 74.24%)
AQI: 1.05 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 302.2m / 277.9m)
TATA: -0.03 (NI 34.9m - CFO 102.9m) / TA 2.16b)
Beneish M = -2.89 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of BFS shares?

As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 30.00 with a total of 134,756 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.79%, over one month by -12.10%, over three months by -17.58% and over the past year by +1.76%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 29.00 (which is 3.3% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).

Is BFS a buy, sell or hold?

Saul Centers has received a consensus analysts rating of 5.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy BFS.

StrongBuy: 2
Buy: 0
Hold: 0
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the BFS price?

Analysts Target Price	43	43.3%

Saul Centers (BFS) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 27 September 2026

Market Cap USD = 1.05b (1.05b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 31.2474
P/E Forward = 178.5714
P/S = 3.4832
P/B = 6.7593
P/EG = 44.9732
Revenue TTM = 302.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 118.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 180.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.52b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 50.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.62b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.4m
Net Debt = 1.62b USD (calculated: Debt 1.62b - CCE 5.88m)
Enterprise Value = 2.67b USD (1.05b + Debt 1.62b - CCE 5.88m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.54 (Ebit TTM 118.2m / Interest Expense TTM 76.7m)
EV/FCF = 30.76x (Enterprise Value 2.67b / FCF TTM 86.8m)
FCF Yield = 3.25% (FCF TTM 86.8m / Enterprise Value 2.67b)
FCF Margin = 28.73% (FCF TTM 86.8m / Revenue TTM 302.2m)
Net Margin = 11.54% (Net Income TTM 34.9m / Revenue TTM 302.2m)
Gross Margin = 74.24% ((Revenue TTM 302.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 77.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.88% (prev 69.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.24 (Enterprise Value 2.67b / Total Assets 2.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.73% (Interest Expense 76.7m / Debt 1.62b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 93.4m (EBIT 118.2m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 1.35 (Total Current Assets 68.7m / Total Current Liabilities 50.8m)
Debt / Equity = 5.49 (Debt 1.62b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 295.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.97 (Net Debt 1.62b / EBITDA 180.3m)
Debt / FCF = 18.63 (Net Debt 1.62b / FCF TTM 86.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 305.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.62% (Net Income 34.9m / Total Assets 2.16b)
RoE = 11.41% (Net Income TTM 34.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 305.6m)
RoCE = 6.48% (EBIT 118.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 305.6m + L.T.Debt 1.52b))
RoIC = 4.34% (NOPAT 93.4m / Invested Capital 2.15b)
WACC = 4.55% (E(1.05b)/V(2.68b) * Re(5.82%) + D(1.62b)/V(2.68b) * Rd(4.73%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.82% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 58.94 | Cagr: 0.22%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈97.0m ; Y1≈85.1m ; Y5≈68.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.10b - Net Debt 1.62b = -514.6m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -77.30 | EPS CAGR: -7.24% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 98.99 | Revenue CAGR: 6.36% | SUE: -0.09 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.57 | Chg30d=-44.12% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-47.7% | GrowthRev=+7.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.80 | Chg30d=-20.79% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+40.4% | GrowthRev=+3.4%