AIR Stock Analysis: AAR | NYSE
Aerospace & Defense | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 5.165m USD | 12M Return: 78.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 69.5M
EPS Trend: 97.6%
Qual. Beats: 9
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 5
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
AAR Corp. is a U.S.-based provider of aftermarket products and services to the commercial aviation, government, and defense markets, operating across North America, Europe, Africa, and Asia. The company runs four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services, offering aircraft component leasing and sales, airframe and component maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services, engineering and certification work, and proprietary software such as the Trax cloud-based electronic enterprise resource platform. It also manages customer-owned aircraft fleets, provides supply chain logistics and parts procurement services, and manufactures tactical containers, pallets, and shelters for military and humanitarian deployment. AAR was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois. The company sits within the global aerospace and defense aftermarket, a sector that supports operators through component MRO, parts distribution, and integrated logistics solutions tied to aircraft utilization.
- Parts Supply segment margins expand as commercial aviation activity rises
- Defense and government demand drives Expeditionary Services revenue growth
- Trax software recurring revenue lifts Integrated Solutions profitability
| Net Income: 187.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.93 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 34.13% < 20% (prev 34.38%; Δ -0.25% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 101.2m > Net Income 187.7m |
| Net Debt (1.01b) to EBITDA (393.9m): 2.57 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.84 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (39.6m) vs 12m ago 11.24% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 18.80% > 18% (prev 18.98%; Δ -0.18% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 106.7% > 50% (prev 97.75%; Δ 8.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.44 > 6 (EBIT TTM 318.6m / Interest Expense TTM 71.7m) |
| A: 0.34 (Total Current Assets 1.74b - Total Current Liabilities 613.2m) / Total Assets 3.36b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 1.16b / Total Assets 3.36b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 318.6m / Avg Total Assets 3.10b) |
| D: 1.03 (Book Value of Equity 1.70b / Total Liabilities 1.65b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.10 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 535.2m/495.1m, Revenue 3.31b/2.78b) |
| GMI: 1.01 (GM 18.98% / 18.80%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.37 / AQ_t-1 0.38) |
| SGI: 1.19 (Revenue 3.31b / 2.78b) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 187.7m - CFO 101.2m) / TA 3.36b) |
| Beneish M = -2.97 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 136.92 with a total of 453,134 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.91%, over one month by -3.48%, over three months by +24.25% and over the past year by +78.28%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 119.30 (which is 12.9% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
AAR has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.83. Therefore, it is recommended to buy AIR.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 141 | 3% |
P/E Trailing = 28.0238
P/E Forward = 23.5294
P/S = 1.5613
P/B = 3.0974
P/EG = 2.4021
Revenue TTM = 3.31b USD
EBIT TTM = 318.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 393.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 893.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 1.10b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 101.1m
Net Debt = 1.01b USD (calculated: Debt 1.10b - CCE 84.0m)
Enterprise Value = 6.18b USD (5.16b + Debt 1.10b - CCE 84.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.44 (Ebit TTM 318.6m / Interest Expense TTM 71.7m)
EV/FCF = 118.6x (Enterprise Value 6.18b / FCF TTM 52.1m)
FCF Yield = 0.84% (FCF TTM 52.1m / Enterprise Value 6.18b)
FCF Margin = 1.57% (FCF TTM 52.1m / Revenue TTM 3.31b)
Net Margin = 5.67% (Net Income TTM 187.7m / Revenue TTM 3.31b)
Gross Margin = 18.80% ((Revenue TTM 3.31b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.69b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.04% (prev 18.31%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.84 (Enterprise Value 6.18b / Total Assets 3.36b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.54% (Interest Expense 71.7m / Debt 1.10b)
Taxrate = 23.67% (58.2m / 245.9m)
NOPAT = 243.2m (EBIT 318.6m * (1 - 23.67%))
Current Ratio = 2.84 (Total Current Assets 1.74b / Total Current Liabilities 613.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.64 (Debt 1.10b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.70b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.57 (Net Debt 1.01b / EBITDA 393.9m)
Debt / FCF = 19.43 (Net Debt 1.01b / FCF TTM 52.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.05% (Net Income 187.7m / Total Assets 3.36b)
RoE = 12.19% (Net Income TTM 187.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.54b)
RoCE = 13.09% (EBIT 318.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.54b + L.T.Debt 893.9m))
RoIC = 9.15% (NOPAT 243.2m / Invested Capital 2.66b)
WACC = 9.16% (E(5.16b)/V(6.26b) * Re(10.04%) + D(1.10b)/V(6.26b) * Rd(6.54%) * (1-Tc(0.24)))
Discount Rate = 10.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.76 | Cagr: 5.37%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.40% ; FCFF base≈38.3m ; Y1≈43.9m ; Y5≈64.6m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 851.5m - Net Debt 1.01b = -160.6m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 97.58 | EPS CAGR: 19.37% | SUE: 2.26 | # QB: 9
Revenue Correlation: 99.77 | Revenue CAGR: 18.07% | SUE: 1.24 | # QB: 5
EPS current Quarter (2026-08-31): EPS=1.33 | Chg30d=+3.98% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS next Quarter (2026-11-30): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=+4.36% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2027-05-31): EPS=5.65 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+11.9% | GrowthRev=+10.6%
EPS next Year (2028-05-31): EPS=6.55 | Chg30d=-0.37% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+15.9% | GrowthRev=+5.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)