AGRO Stock Analysis: Adecoagro | NYSE
Farm Products | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.453m USD | 12M Return: 14.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 6.38M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 52.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Adecoagro S.A. (NYSE: AGRO) is a Luxembourg-domiciled agribusiness company operating across Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Uruguay, organized into three segments: Sugar, Ethanol and Energy; Fertilizers; and Farming. Founded in 2002 and listed on the NYSE since 2011, the company produces a diversified mix of agricultural commodities, including soybean, corn, wheat, peanut, sunflower, and cotton, alongside rice and dairy products. The South American agribusiness sector benefits from extensive arable land and export-oriented production, particularly in soybeans and corn, which rank among the regions largest commodity exports.
Beyond crop production, Adecoagro processes and markets white, brown, and rough rice, develops seeds, and produces a range of dairy goods such as fluid milk, powdered milk, and cheese. The company also cultivates sugarcane to manufacture ethanol, sugar, and bioelectricity, and generates on-site electricity by burning biogas captured from dairy cattle effluents, while also selling carbon credits generated through its renewable energy operations. Brazil is the worlds largest sugarcane producer, making sugarcane-derived ethanol a cornerstone of the countrys established biofuel industry.
Adecoagro additionally engages in land transformation, acquiring underdeveloped farmland and applying modern production technology to improve yields. As of May 1, 2025, the company operates as a subsidiary of Tether Investments, S.A. de C.V., and is classified under the GICS Consumer Staples sector in the Packaged Foods & Meats sub-industry.
- Argentina peso devaluation pressures dollar-denominated margins
- Brazilian sugar and ethanol prices drive segment profitability
- Tether take-private deal reshapes capital allocation strategy
| Net Income: 14.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 35.07% < 20% (prev 34.50%; Δ 0.57% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 289.5m > Net Income 14.2m |
| Net Debt (2.38b) to EBITDA (466.2m): 5.11 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.74 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (512.2m) vs 12m ago 410.0% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 25.24% > 18% (prev 25.17%; Δ 0.07% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.17% > 50% (prev 47.24%; Δ -12.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.07 > 6 (EBIT TTM 168.5m / Interest Expense TTM 157.1m) |
| A: 0.10 (Total Current Assets 1.24b - Total Current Liabilities 715.4m) / Total Assets 5.19b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 549.9m / Total Assets 5.19b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 168.5m / Avg Total Assets 4.27b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 1.76b / Total Liabilities 3.29b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.84 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.26 (Receivables 292.6m/244.6m, Revenue 1.50b/1.58b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 25.17% / 25.24%) |
| AQI: 1.31 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 1.50b / 1.58b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 14.2m - CFO 289.5m) / TA 5.19b) |
| Beneish M = -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of July 29, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 10.24 with a total of 575,756 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.49%, over one month by +6.00%, over three months by -20.84% and over the past year by +14.47%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 9.50 (which is 7.2% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Adecoagro has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.67. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AGRO.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 13.7 | 33.3% |
P/E Trailing = 503.5
P/E Forward = 27.1003
P/S = 0.9682
P/B = 0.8276
P/EG = 75.9697
Revenue TTM = 1.50b USD
EBIT TTM = 168.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 466.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.52b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 400.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.55b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 348.9m
Net Debt = 2.38b USD (calculated: Debt 2.55b - CCE 172.5m)
Enterprise Value = 3.84b USD (1.45b + Debt 2.55b - CCE 172.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.07 (Ebit TTM 168.5m / Interest Expense TTM 157.1m)
EV/FCF = 74.65x (Enterprise Value 3.84b / FCF TTM 51.4m)
FCF Yield = 1.34% (FCF TTM 51.4m / Enterprise Value 3.84b)
FCF Margin = 3.42% (FCF TTM 51.4m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Net Margin = 0.95% (Net Income TTM 14.2m / Revenue TTM 1.50b)
Gross Margin = 25.24% ((Revenue TTM 1.50b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.12b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.74% (prev 18.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.74 (Enterprise Value 3.84b / Total Assets 5.19b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.15% (Interest Expense 157.1m / Debt 2.55b)
Taxrate = 39.05% (28.1m / 71.9m)
NOPAT = 102.7m (EBIT 168.5m * (1 - 39.05%))
Current Ratio = 1.74 (Total Current Assets 1.24b / Total Current Liabilities 715.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.46 (Debt 2.55b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.76b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.11 (Net Debt 2.38b / EBITDA 466.2m)
Debt / FCF = 46.36 (Net Debt 2.38b / FCF TTM 51.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.54b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.33% (Net Income 14.2m / Total Assets 5.19b)
RoE = 0.93% (Net Income TTM 14.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.54b)
RoCE = 5.52% (EBIT 168.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.54b + L.T.Debt 1.52b))
RoIC = 2.14% (NOPAT 102.7m / Invested Capital 4.80b)
WACC = 4.50% (E(1.45b)/V(4.01b) * Re(5.83%) + D(2.55b)/V(4.01b) * Rd(6.15%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 5.83% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 68.70 | Cagr: 100.5%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈152.5m ; Y1≈133.7m ; Y5≈108.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.73b - Net Debt 2.38b = -648.1m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 52.92 | Revenue CAGR: 3.90% | SUE: -0.22 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=-55.36% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.16 | Chg30d=-67.07% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.91 | Chg30d=-2.90% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1160.0% | GrowthRev=+57.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.25 | Chg30d=-2.93% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=-34.5% | GrowthRev=-4.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)