VLY Stock Analysis: Valley National Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 7.992m USD | 12M Return: 56.3% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 100M
EPS Trend: 3.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -7.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Valley National Bancorp (NASDAQ: VLY) is the holding company for Valley National Bank, a regional bank founded in 1927 and headquartered in Morristown, New Jersey. The company operates through three segments: Consumer Banking, Commercial Banking, and Treasury and Corporate, offering a full suite of deposit products (non-interest bearing, savings, NOW, money market, and time deposits) and lending services spanning commercial and industrial loans, commercial real estate, construction, residential mortgages, home equity, and consumer/auto loans.
Beyond traditional banking, Valley provides wealth management, trust and estate services, brokerage, insurance agency, equipment leasing, and private banking, along with niche offerings such as homeowners association banking, cannabis-related business banking, and venture banking. As a mid-cap U.S. regional bank, Valleys business model is centered on relationship-based lending and deposit gathering in its core Northeast markets, where commercial real estate exposure is typically a meaningful driver of loan portfolio performance for the regional banking sector.
- Commercial real estate loan losses pressure credit quality
- Net interest margin compresses as deposit costs rise
- Acquisition integration drives loan and deposit growth
| Net Income: 693.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.15 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.51k% < 20% (prev -1.40k%; Δ -116.3% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 570.6m > Net Income 693.6m |
| Net Debt (-5.31b) to EBITDA (465.0m): -11.43 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.17 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (558.0m) vs 12m ago -0.97% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 50.50% > 18% (prev 46.41%; Δ 4.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.62% > 50% (prev 5.60%; Δ -0.98% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.32 > 6 (EBIT TTM 431.7m / Interest Expense TTM 1.35b) |
| A: -0.68 (Total Current Assets 9.38b - Total Current Liabilities 54.6b) / Total Assets 66.3b |
| B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 2.10b / Total Assets 66.3b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 431.7m / Avg Total Assets 64.5b) |
| D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 7.92b / Total Liabilities 58.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -4.18 = D |
| DSRI: 1.24 (Receivables 250.7m/238.3m, Revenue 2.98b/3.51b) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 46.41% / 50.50%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.96) |
| SGI: 0.85 (Revenue 2.98b / 3.51b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 693.6m - CFO 570.6m) / TA 66.3b) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 14.35 with a total of 7,050,713 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.18%, over one month by -2.05%, over three months by +6.79% and over the past year by +56.32%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.60 (which is 5.2% or 2.3 ATR below the current price).
Valley National Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.58. Therefore, it is recommended to hold VLY.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 16.5 | 14.8% |
P/E Trailing = 13.018
P/E Forward = 11.4548
P/S = 4.1176
P/B = 1.0743
P/EG = 1.1627
Revenue TTM = 2.98b USD
EBIT TTM = 431.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 465.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.97b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 433.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 364.0m
Net Debt = -5.31b USD (calculated: Debt 3.82b - CCE 9.13b)
Enterprise Value = 2.68b USD (7.99b + Debt 3.82b - CCE 9.13b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.32 (Ebit TTM 431.7m / Interest Expense TTM 1.35b)
EV/FCF = 4.83x (Enterprise Value 2.68b / FCF TTM 554.1m)
FCF Yield = 20.69% (FCF TTM 554.1m / Enterprise Value 2.68b)
FCF Margin = 18.58% (FCF TTM 554.1m / Revenue TTM 2.98b)
Net Margin = 23.26% (Net Income TTM 693.6m / Revenue TTM 2.98b)
Gross Margin = 50.50% ((Revenue TTM 2.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.48b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -8.06% (prev 59.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.04 (Enterprise Value 2.68b / Total Assets 66.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 35.43% (Interest Expense 1.35b / Debt 3.82b)
Taxrate = 19.47% (167.7m / 861.3m)
NOPAT = 347.6m (EBIT 431.7m * (1 - 19.47%))
Current Ratio = 0.17 (Total Current Assets 9.38b / Total Current Liabilities 54.6b)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 3.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.92b)
Debt / EBITDA = -11.43 (Net Debt -5.31b / EBITDA 465.0m)
Debt / FCF = -9.59 (Net Debt -5.31b / FCF TTM 554.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.81b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.08% (Net Income 693.6m / Total Assets 66.3b)
RoE = 8.88% (Net Income TTM 693.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.81b)
RoCE = 4.00% (EBIT 431.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.81b + L.T.Debt 2.97b))
RoIC = 2.88% (NOPAT 347.6m / Invested Capital 12.1b)
WACC = 15.79% (E(7.99b)/V(11.8b) * Re(9.70%) + D(3.82b)/V(11.8b) * Rd(35.43%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 83.27 | Cagr: 4.02%
[DCF] Terminal Value 57.66% ; FCFF base≈505.2m ; Y1≈579.2m ; Y5≈852.4m
[DCF] Fair Price = 19.52 (EV 5.48b - Net Debt -5.31b = Equity 10.8b / Shares 553.1m; r=15.79% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 3.29 | EPS CAGR: 0.86% | SUE: -0.38 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -6.95 | Revenue CAGR: -0.42% | SUE: -0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.33 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=14
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.29 | Chg30d=-0.04% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+30.1% | GrowthRev=+12.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.53 | Chg30d=-0.50% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+18.9% | GrowthRev=+10.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -10% (up=3, down=4)