UPBD Stock Analysis: Upbound | NASDAQ
Software - Application | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 985m USD | 12M Return: -27.3% | US76009N1000 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 15.1M
EPS Trend: 90.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Upbound Group, Inc. (UPBD) is a Plano, Texas-based technology and data-driven financial solutions company operating in the United States, Puerto Rico, and Mexico through four business segments: Acima, Rent-A-Center, Brigit, and Mexico. The company specializes in lease-to-own (LTO) and retail installment sales transactions, primarily serving consumers who do not qualify for traditional credit-based financing.
Its merchandise assortment spans furniture and mattresses, tires, consumer electronics, appliances, tools, handbags, computers, and accessories, distributed through company-owned stores under the Rent-A-Center, Get It Now, Home Choice, and RimTyme banners, as well as staffed and unstaffed kiosks placed inside third-party retailers and online channels such as rentacenter.com. Beyond point-of-sale financing, the Brigit segment delivers digital financial-health tools via mobile and web applications, expanding the companys reach beyond physical retail.
The firm was incorporated in 1986 and was known as Rent-A-Center, Inc. until its February 2023 rebranding to Upbound Group, Inc., reflecting its pivot from a pure rent-to-own operator into a broader digital financial-services platform. The lease-to-own and subprime installment industry is part of the broader Consumer Discretionary sector and serves a demographic typically underserved by banks and prime credit card issuers, competing with both specialty LTO operators and buy-now-pay-later (BNPL) fintech providers.
- Acima virtual lease-to-own growth outpaces legacy stores
- Subprime consumer credit losses pressure gross profit margins
- CFPB lease-to-own regulation may restrict pricing models
| Net Income: 90.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.42% < 20% (prev 23.60%; Δ -25.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 425.5m > Net Income 90.3m |
| Net Debt (1.89b) to EBITDA (1.76b): 1.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.87 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (58.5m) vs 12m ago -0.22% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 49.13% > 18% (prev 47.78%; Δ 1.36% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 153.1% > 50% (prev 144.8%; Δ 8.27% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.19 > 6 (EBIT TTM 239.3m / Interest Expense TTM 109.1m) |
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 466.4m - Total Current Liabilities 534.0m) / Total Assets 3.10b |
| B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 1.03b / Total Assets 3.10b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 239.3m / Avg Total Assets 3.10b) |
| D: 0.31 (Book Value of Equity 733.4m / Total Liabilities 2.37b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.78 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 205.3m/189.9m, Revenue 4.74b/4.48b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 47.78% / 49.13%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.28 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 4.74b / 4.48b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 90.3m - CFO 425.5m) / TA 3.10b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.09 with a total of 780,092 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.07%, over one month by -16.89%, over three months by -18.90% and over the past year by -27.25%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 15.30 (which is 4.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Upbound has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.38. Therefore, it is recommended to buy UPBD.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 28.3 | 75.6% |
P/E Trailing = 10.9675
P/E Forward = 3.5323
P/S = 0.2075
P/B = 1.3618
P/EG = 1.3876
Revenue TTM = 4.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 239.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.76b USD
Long Term Debt = 1.42b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 284.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.99b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 284.6m
Net Debt = 1.89b USD (calculated: Debt 1.99b - CCE 105.3m)
Enterprise Value = 2.87b USD (984.7m + Debt 1.99b - CCE 105.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.19 (Ebit TTM 239.3m / Interest Expense TTM 109.1m)
EV/FCF = 8.07x (Enterprise Value 2.87b / FCF TTM 356.0m)
FCF Yield = 12.39% (FCF TTM 356.0m / Enterprise Value 2.87b)
FCF Margin = 7.50% (FCF TTM 356.0m / Revenue TTM 4.74b)
Net Margin = 1.90% (Net Income TTM 90.3m / Revenue TTM 4.74b)
Gross Margin = 49.13% ((Revenue TTM 4.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 51.13% (prev 48.08%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.93 (Enterprise Value 2.87b / Total Assets 3.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.47% (Interest Expense 109.1m / Debt 1.99b)
Taxrate = 30.65% (39.9m / 130.3m)
NOPAT = 166.0m (EBIT 239.3m * (1 - 30.65%))
Current Ratio = 0.87 (Total Current Assets 466.4m / Total Current Liabilities 534.0m)
Debt / Equity = 2.72 (Debt 1.99b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 733.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.07 (Net Debt 1.89b / EBITDA 1.76b)
Debt / FCF = 5.30 (Net Debt 1.89b / FCF TTM 356.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 708.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.91% (Net Income 90.3m / Total Assets 3.10b)
RoE = 12.76% (Net Income TTM 90.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 708.0m)
RoCE = 11.23% (EBIT 239.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 708.0m + L.T.Debt 1.42b))
RoIC = 6.04% (NOPAT 166.0m / Invested Capital 2.75b)
WACC = 6.06% (E(984.7m)/V(2.98b) * Re(10.65%) + D(1.99b)/V(2.98b) * Rd(5.47%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 10.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.22 | Cagr: 2.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈277.4m ; Y1≈318.0m ; Y5≈467.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 88.41 (EV 7.04b - Net Debt 1.89b = Equity 5.15b / Shares 58.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 90.44 | EPS CAGR: 8.42% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.51 | Revenue CAGR: 7.47% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.93 | Chg30d=+1.79% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.16 | Chg30d=+0.38% | Revisions=-38% | GrowthEPS=+0.7% | GrowthRev=+0.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.62 | Chg30d=+0.85% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+11.1% | GrowthRev=+4.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -67% (up=2, down=16)