TFSL Stock Analysis: TFS Financial | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.717m USD | 12M Return: 37.6% | US87240R1077 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Deposit Accounts, Mortgage Loans, Home Equity, Escrow Settlement
Total Rating 53
Safety 35
Buy Signal 0.16
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +6.1
Market Cap: 4.72B
Avg Turnover: 11.9M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility23.0%
VaR 5th Pctl3.85%
VaR vs Median1.51%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio1.36
Rel. Str. IBD72.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group65.8
Character TTM
Beta0.383
Beta Downside0.276
Hurst Exponent0.406
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD21.28%
CAGR/Max DD1.04
CAGR/Mean DD3.42
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TFSL over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.06, "2021-12": 0.06, "2022-03": 0.06, "2022-06": 0.06, "2022-09": 0.09, "2022-12": 0.08, "2023-03": 0.06, "2023-06": 0.06, "2023-09": 0.07, "2023-12": 0.07, "2024-03": 0.07, "2024-06": 0.07, "2024-09": 0.06, "2024-12": 0.08, "2025-03": 0.07, "2025-06": 0.08, "2025-09": 0.09, "2025-12": 0.08, "2026-03": 0.08, "2026-06": 0.11,
EPS CAGR: 10.88%
EPS Trend: 91.9%
Last SUE: 3.27
Qual. Beats: 1
Revenue Revenue of TFSL over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 102.757, 2021-12: 100.244, 2022-03: 99.052, 2022-06: 108.448, 2022-09: 125.393, 2022-12: 144.127, 2023-03: 152.881, 2023-06: 162.5, 2023-09: 173.84, 2023-12: 183.474, 2024-03: 189.215, 2024-06: 191.151, 2024-09: 194.936, 2024-12: 193.271, 2025-03: 193.02, 2025-06: 198.455, 2025-09: 207.214, 2025-12: 205.82, 2026-03: 202.906, 2026-06: 202.112,
Rev. CAGR: 8.54%
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Last SUE: 0.70
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -0.5% 5
Feb -0.3% 7
Mar +0.5% 8
Apr -0.1% 7
May +2.5% 40
Jun -0.5% 5
Jul +1.1% 21
Aug -0.3% 20
Sep -3.6% 50
Oct -0.1% 13
Nov +5.5% 54
Dec -0.0% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TFSL TFS Financial

TFS Financial Corporation is a Cleveland, Ohio-based retail consumer bank operating primarily through its subsidiary Third Federal Savings and Loan Association. Founded in 1938, the company provides a full suite of deposit products-including savings, checking, money market, IRA, and certificates of deposit-alongside a mortgage-focused lending portfolio covering residential purchase, construction, refinance, and home equity loans.

The company is structured as a subsidiary of Third Federal Savings and Loan Association of Cleveland, MHC, reflecting the mutual holding company (MHC) structure historically used by U.S. thrifts to retain depositor ownership while accessing public capital markets (TFSL IPOd in 2007). Its narrow concentration in residential mortgage lending and traditional deposit gathering is characteristic of the savings and loan business model within the Regional Banks sub-industry.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts deposit pricing
  • Residential mortgage origination volume declines with higher rates
  • Home equity loan growth offset by credit quality concerns
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 102.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.33 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1.21k% < 20% (prev -1.25k%; Δ 43.93% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 97.8m > Net Income 102.1m
Net Debt (7.03b) to EBITDA (150.6m): 46.70 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.01 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (280.2m) vs 12m ago 0.16% < -2%
Gross Margin: 41.05% > 18% (prev 39.58%; Δ 1.47% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 4.62% > 50% (prev 4.49%; Δ 0.13% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.27 > 6 (EBIT TTM 129.5m / Interest Expense TTM 482.2m)
Altman Z'' -3.24
A: -0.55 (Total Current Assets 92.3m - Total Current Liabilities 9.99b) / Total Assets 18.1b
B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 977.6m / Total Assets 18.1b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 129.5m / Avg Total Assets 17.7b)
D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 1.96b / Total Liabilities 16.1b)
Altman-Z'' = -3.24 = D
Beneish M -3.00
DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 63.7m/60.4m, Revenue 818.1m/779.7m)
GMI: 0.96 (GM 39.58% / 41.05%)
AQI: 1.03 (AQ_t 0.99 / AQ_t-1 0.97)
SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 818.1m / 779.7m)
TATA: 0.00 (NI 102.1m - CFO 97.8m) / TA 18.1b)
Beneish M = -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of TFSL shares?

As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.72 with a total of 550,322 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.07%, over one month by -4.26%, over three months by -2.73% and over the past year by +37.62%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.10 (which is 3.7% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).

Is TFSL a buy, sell or hold?

TFS Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TFSL.

  • StrongBuy: 0
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the TFSL price?
Analysts Target Price 19 13.6%
TFS Financial (TFSL) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 23 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 4.72b (4.72b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 46.7222
P/E Forward = 76.9231
P/S = 13.5848
P/B = 2.4213
P/EG = 72.6154
Revenue TTM = 818.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 129.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 150.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 5.86b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.20b USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 7.06b USD (corrected: LT Debt 5.86b + ST Debt 1.20b)
Net Debt = 7.03b USD (calculated: Debt 7.06b - CCE 28.6m)
Enterprise Value = 11.7b USD (4.72b + Debt 7.06b - CCE 28.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.27 (Ebit TTM 129.5m / Interest Expense TTM 482.2m)
EV/FCF = 136.2x (Enterprise Value 11.7b / FCF TTM 86.3m)
FCF Yield = 0.73% (FCF TTM 86.3m / Enterprise Value 11.7b)
FCF Margin = 10.55% (FCF TTM 86.3m / Revenue TTM 818.1m)
Net Margin = 12.48% (Net Income TTM 102.1m / Revenue TTM 818.1m)
Gross Margin = 41.05% ((Revenue TTM 818.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 482.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 40.26% (prev 42.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.65 (Enterprise Value 11.7b / Total Assets 18.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.83% (Interest Expense 482.2m / Debt 7.06b)
Taxrate = 21.16% (27.4m / 129.5m)
NOPAT = 102.1m (EBIT 129.5m * (1 - 21.16%))
Current Ratio = 0.01 (Total Current Assets 92.3m / Total Current Liabilities 9.99b)
Debt / Equity = 3.61 (Debt 7.06b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.96b)
Debt / EBITDA = 46.70 (Net Debt 7.03b / EBITDA 150.6m)
Debt / FCF = 81.49 (Net Debt 7.03b / FCF TTM 86.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.92b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.58% (Net Income 102.1m / Total Assets 18.1b)
RoE = 5.32% (Net Income TTM 102.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.92b)
RoCE = 1.67% (EBIT 129.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.92b + L.T.Debt 5.86b))
RoIC = 1.10% (NOPAT 102.1m / Invested Capital 9.25b)
WACC = 6.16% (E(4.72b)/V(11.8b) * Re(7.33%) + D(7.06b)/V(11.8b) * Rd(6.83%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 7.33% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 53.30 | Cagr: 0.18%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈61.7m ; Y1≈70.7m ; Y5≈104.1m
 [DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 1.57b - Net Debt 7.03b = -5.46b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
 EPS Correlation: 91.94 | EPS CAGR: 10.88% | SUE: 3.27 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.31 | Revenue CAGR: 8.54% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=0.10 | Chg30d=+5.56% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=0.36 | Chg30d=+7.46% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+12.5% | GrowthRev=+8.2%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+5.41% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+8.3% | GrowthRev=+7.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +50% (up=3, down=0)