TCBI Stock Analysis: Texas Capital Bancshares | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.290m USD | 12M Return: 14% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Investment Banking, Wealth Management, Treasury Management
Total Rating 27
Safety 39
Buy Signal -0.91
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: -5.9
Market Cap: 4.29B
Avg Turnover: 56.0M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility31.9%
VaR 5th Pctl5.40%
VaR vs Median2.80%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.51
Rel. Str. IBD42
Rel. Str. Peer Group5.8
Character TTM
Beta1.255
Beta Downside1.331
Hurst Exponent0.469
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD31.71%
CAGR/Max DD0.50
CAGR/Mean DD1.90
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of TCBI over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 1.31, "2021-09": 0.76, "2021-12": 1.19, "2022-03": 0.69, "2022-06": 0.59, "2022-09": 0.74, "2022-12": 0.87, "2023-03": 0.7, "2023-06": 1.33, "2023-09": 1.18, "2023-12": 0.65, "2024-03": 0.46, "2024-06": 0.8, "2024-09": -1.42, "2024-12": 1.43, "2025-03": 0.92, "2025-06": 1.63, "2025-09": 2.18, "2025-12": 2.08, "2026-03": 1.58, "2026-06": 1.88,
EPS CAGR: 44.05%
EPS Trend: 40.1%
Last SUE: 0.03
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of TCBI over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 242.237, 2021-09: 238.972, 2021-12: 251.326, 2022-03: 228.812, 2022-06: 268.591, 2022-09: 347.404, 2022-12: 400.433, 2023-03: 422.569, 2023-06: 447.927, 2023-09: 472.641, 2023-12: 448.205, 2024-03: 458.697, 2024-06: 472.492, 2024-09: 337.762, 2024-12: 491.645, 2025-03: 471.733, 2025-06: 493.636, 2025-09: 529.198, 2025-12: 504.36, 2026-03: 488.36, 2026-06: 439.93,
Rev. CAGR: 4.98%
Rev. Trend: 75.3%
Last SUE: 0.41
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Fakeout
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.0% 2
Feb -0.5% 16
Mar -10.1% 58
Apr -1.0% 2
May -3.0% 25
Jun +2.6% 27
Jul +7.5% 28
Aug -1.1% 31
Sep -1.8% 23
Oct -1.2% 6
Nov +1.8% 6
Dec -0.3% 18

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: TCBI Texas Capital Bancshares

Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) is the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, a full-service financial services firm serving businesses, entrepreneurs, and individuals. Its offerings span commercial and consumer banking, investment banking (capital markets, M&A, syndicated finance), wealth management, treasury and payment solutions, and a wide range of lending products including commercial real estate, homebuilder finance, mortgage warehouse lending, and asset-based lending. The company operates primarily across major Texas metropolitan areas-Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio-with additional presence in California and New York, and has been headquartered in Dallas since its incorporation in 1996.

As a mid-cap regional bank within the Financials sector, TCBI follows the standard U.S. bank holding company structure, with the parent company regulated at the federal level and the subsidiary bank primarily exposed to Texas commercial banking markets. Regional banks like TCBI typically generate revenue from net interest income (loans and securities) supplemented by fee-based services such as treasury management, wealth advisory, and capital markets activities.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin expansion as Fed rate hikes continue
  • Texas commercial real estate and homebuilder loan portfolio drives credit risk
  • Investment banking and capital markets revenue grows from financial sponsor coverage
  • Wealth management fee income scales as client AUM expands
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 4.5
Net Income: 364.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.54 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -988.0% < 20% (prev -1.37k%; Δ 384.8% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.03 > 3% & CFO 926.1m > Net Income 364.6m
Net Debt (-7.41b) to EBITDA (541.8m): -13.68 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.32 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (45.4m) vs 12m ago -1.66% < -2%
Gross Margin: 62.40% > 18% (prev 52.20%; Δ 10.20% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 5.96% > 50% (prev 5.62%; Δ 0.34% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.69 > 6 (EBIT TTM 487.5m / Interest Expense TTM 709.6m)
Altman Z'' -3.24
A: -0.57 (Total Current Assets 9.14b - Total Current Liabilities 28.5b) / Total Assets 33.9b
B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 2.95b / Total Assets 33.9b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 487.5m / Avg Total Assets 32.9b)
D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 3.65b / Total Liabilities 30.3b)
Altman-Z'' = -3.24 = D
What is the price of TCBI shares?

As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 98.40 with a total of 564,210 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.93%, over one month by -4.21%, over three months by -1.71% and over the past year by +14.01%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 94.80 (which is 3.7% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is TCBI a buy, sell or hold?

Texas Capital Bancshares has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.15. Therefore, it is recommended to hold TCBI.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 2
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the TCBI price?
Analysts Target Price 109.4 11.2%
Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 25 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 4.29b (4.29b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.2799
P/E Forward = 13.5318
P/S = 3.3768
P/B = 1.3592
P/EG = 1.4725
Revenue TTM = 1.96b USD
EBIT TTM = 487.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 541.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 620.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 350.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 850.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -7.41b USD (calculated: Debt 850.9m - CCE 8.26b)
Enterprise Value = 4.29b USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.69 (Ebit TTM 487.5m / Interest Expense TTM 709.6m)
EV/FCF = 4.61x (Enterprise Value 4.29b / FCF TTM 931.4m)
FCF Yield = 21.71% (FCF TTM 931.4m / Enterprise Value 4.29b)
FCF Margin = 47.47% (FCF TTM 931.4m / Revenue TTM 1.96b)
Net Margin = 18.58% (Net Income TTM 364.6m / Revenue TTM 1.96b)
Gross Margin = 62.40% ((Revenue TTM 1.96b - Cost of Revenue TTM 737.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 59.19% (prev 63.07%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.13 (Enterprise Value 4.29b / Total Assets 33.9b)
 Interest Expense / Debt = 83.40% (Interest Expense 709.6m / Debt 850.9m)
 Taxrate = 23.48% (111.9m / 476.5m)
NOPAT = 373.0m (EBIT 487.5m * (1 - 23.48%))
Current Ratio = 0.32 (Total Current Assets 9.14b / Total Current Liabilities 28.5b)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 850.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.65b)
Debt / EBITDA = -13.68 (Net Debt -7.41b / EBITDA 541.8m)
Debt / FCF = -7.96 (Net Debt -7.41b / FCF TTM 931.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.63b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.11% (Net Income 364.6m / Total Assets 33.9b)
RoE = 10.04% (Net Income TTM 364.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.63b)
RoCE = 11.47% (EBIT 487.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.63b + L.T.Debt 620.6m))
RoIC = 1.10% (NOPAT 373.0m / Invested Capital 33.8b)
WACC = 8.68% (E(4.29b)/V(5.14b) * Re(10.40%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 10.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -94.70 | Cagr: -2.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.91% ; FCFF base≈712.6m ; Y1≈816.9m ; Y5≈1.20b
[DCF] Fair Price = 564.0 (EV 17.1b - Net Debt -7.41b = Equity 24.5b / Shares 43.5m; r=8.68% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 40.10 | EPS CAGR: 44.05% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 75.33 | Revenue CAGR: 4.98% | SUE: 0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.00 | Chg30d=-4.18% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=11
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.46 | Chg30d=-2.17% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+9.7% | GrowthRev=+6.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=8.29 | Chg30d=-0.75% | Revisions=-50% | GrowthEPS=+11.2% | GrowthRev=+6.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -36% (up=2, down=6)