STX Stock Analysis: Seagate Technology | NASDAQ

Computer Hardware | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 181.556m USD | 12M Return: 447.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Hard Drives, Solid State Drives, External Storage, Storage
Total Rating 86
Safety 59
Buy Signal 0.01
Computer Hardware
Industry Rotation: -21.7
Market Cap: 182B
Avg Turnover: 4.28B
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility85.8%
VaR 5th Pctl14.4%
VaR vs Median2.09%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio2.69
Rel. Str. IBD99.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group92.5
Character TTM
Beta2.538
Beta Downside1.729
Hurst Exponent0.434
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD40.00%
CAGR/Max DD3.55
CAGR/Mean DD18.91
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of STX over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 2, "2021-09": 2.35, "2021-12": 2.41, "2022-03": 1.81, "2022-06": 1.59, "2022-09": 0.48, "2022-12": 0.16, "2023-03": -0.28, "2023-06": -0.18, "2023-09": -0.22, "2023-12": 0.12, "2024-03": 0.33, "2024-06": 1.05, "2024-09": 1.58, "2024-12": 2.03, "2025-03": 1.9, "2025-06": 2.59, "2025-09": 2.61, "2025-12": 3.11, "2026-03": 4.1,
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 4
Revenue Revenue of STX over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 3013, 2021-09: 3115, 2021-12: 3116, 2022-03: 2802, 2022-06: 2628, 2022-09: 2035, 2022-12: 1887, 2023-03: 1860, 2023-06: 1602, 2023-09: 1454, 2023-12: 1555, 2024-03: 1655, 2024-06: 1887, 2024-09: 2168, 2024-12: 2325, 2025-03: 2160, 2025-06: 2444, 2025-09: 2629, 2025-12: 2825, 2026-03: 3112,
Rev. CAGR: 20.62%
Rev. Trend: 89.4%
Last SUE: 4.00
Qual. Beats: 3

Warnings

P/E Ratio 86.2
Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Tailwinds

Rs Leader
Idiosyncratic Leader
Confidence

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +9.6% 26
Feb +0.2% 2
Mar -1.2% 16
Apr -2.5% 25
May +3.7% 21
Jun +0.6% 5
Jul -5.6% 22
Aug -1.1% 22
Sep +1.4% 5
Oct +0.4% 8
Nov +7.0% 38
Dec +3.8% 11

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: STX Seagate Technology

Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is a Singapore-based provider of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions, operating across Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and other international markets. Founded in 1978, the company designs and delivers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. Seagates primary customer base consists of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), distributors, and retailers.

In addition to its enterprise offerings, Seagate produces a broad consumer portfolio, including the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and Basics external drives, the LaCie-branded products, desktop and notebook HDDs, DVR HDDs for video streaming, and gaming SSDs. The company also operates the Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform, which combines modular hardware and software to help enterprises manage on-premise and cloud storage infrastructure. This dual focus on high-volume enterprise storage and branded consumer devices gives Seagate exposure to both data center build-outs and retail-driven storage demand.

The HDD industry in which Seagate operates is a capital-intensive, concentrated market, with only a handful of manufacturers globally competing in large-capacity drives used for cloud and hyperscale data centers. Seagates heavy weighting toward nearline enterprise HDDs positions it to benefit from the continued growth in data generation, cloud archiving, and AI-related storage workloads, while its SSD and external storage lines address faster, consumer-oriented, and edge-computing use cases.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • AI cloud demand drives nearline HDD exabyte shipments higher
  • Mass capacity HDD pricing strengthens on tight industry supply
  • Capital returns continue with aggressive buyback program
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 8.0
Net Income: 2.38b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.30 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 19.39 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 9.61% < 20% (prev 10.19%; Δ -0.58% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.32 > 3% & CFO 2.88b > Net Income 2.38b
Net Debt (3.35b) to EBITDA (3.38b): 0.99 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.33 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (229.0m) vs 12m ago 6.02% < -2%
Gross Margin: 41.54% > 18% (prev 33.79%; Δ 7.75% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 133.8% > 50% (prev 112.9%; Δ 20.91% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 10.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.11b / Interest Expense TTM 295.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.93
A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 4.30b - Total Current Liabilities 3.24b) / Total Assets 8.89b
B: -0.78 (Retained Earnings -6.92b / Total Assets 8.89b)
C: 0.38 (EBIT TTM 3.11b / Avg Total Assets 8.23b)
D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 1.09b / Total Liabilities 7.80b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.93 = BB
Beneish M -2.75
DSRI: 1.39 (Receivables 1.36b/756.0m, Revenue 11.0b/8.54b)
GMI: 0.81 (GM 33.79% / 41.54%)
AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.31 / AQ_t-1 0.35)
SGI: 1.29 (Revenue 11.0b / 8.54b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 2.38b - CFO 2.88b) / TA 8.89b)
Beneish M = -2.75 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of STX shares?

As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 816.99 with a total of 4,597,208 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.81%, over one month by -15.65%, over three months by +37.21% and over the past year by +447.48%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 721.00 (which is 11.7% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is STX a buy, sell or hold?

Seagate Technology has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.96. Therefore, it is recommended to buy STX.

  • StrongBuy: 12
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 8
  • Sell: 1
  • StrongSell: 1

What are the forecasts/targets for the STX price?
Analysts Target Price 1008.6 23.5%
Seagate Technology (STX) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 25 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 182b (182b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 86.2474
P/E Forward = 37.037
P/S = 18.6014
P/B = 187.6343
P/EG = 0.6282
Revenue TTM = 11.0b USD
EBIT TTM = 3.11b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.38b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.46b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 398.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.49b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 315.0m
Net Debt = 3.35b USD (calculated: Debt 4.49b - CCE 1.15b)
Enterprise Value = 185b USD (182b + Debt 4.49b - CCE 1.15b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.54 (Ebit TTM 3.11b / Interest Expense TTM 295.0m)
EV/FCF = 70.23x (Enterprise Value 185b / FCF TTM 2.63b)
FCF Yield = 1.42% (FCF TTM 2.63b / Enterprise Value 185b)
FCF Margin = 23.91% (FCF TTM 2.63b / Revenue TTM 11.0b)
Net Margin = 21.60% (Net Income TTM 2.38b / Revenue TTM 11.0b)
Gross Margin = 41.54% ((Revenue TTM 11.0b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 46.50% (prev 41.63%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 20.79 (Enterprise Value 185b / Total Assets 8.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 6.57% (Interest Expense 295.0m / Debt 4.49b)
Taxrate = 11.17% (299.0m / 2.68b)
NOPAT = 2.76b (EBIT 3.11b * (1 - 11.17%))
Current Ratio = 1.33 (Total Current Assets 4.30b / Total Current Liabilities 3.24b)
Debt / Equity = 4.10 (Debt 4.49b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.09b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.99 (Net Debt 3.35b / EBITDA 3.38b)
Debt / FCF = 1.27 (Net Debt 3.35b / FCF TTM 2.63b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 259.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 28.90% (Net Income 2.38b / Total Assets 8.89b)
RoE = 916.4% (Net Income TTM 2.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 259.5m)
RoCE = 83.50% (EBIT 3.11b / Capital Employed (Equity 259.5m + L.T.Debt 3.46b))
RoIC = 50.24% (NOPAT 2.76b / Invested Capital 5.50b)
WACC = 14.69% (E(182b)/V(186b) * Re(14.91%) + D(4.49b)/V(186b) * Rd(6.57%) * (1-Tc(0.11)))
Discount Rate = 14.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> capped to 13.17%
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.65 | Cagr: 4.15%
[DCF] Terminal Value 60.22% ; FCFF base≈1.89b ; Y1≈2.17b ; Y5≈3.19b
[DCF] Fair Price = 84.31 (EV 22.4b - Net Debt 3.35b = Equity 19.1b / Shares 226.3m; r=14.69% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 4
Revenue Correlation: 89.40 | Revenue CAGR: 20.62% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=5.87 | Chg30d=+3.91% | Revisions=+57% | Analysts=17
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=14.89 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+83.8% | GrowthRev=+32.5%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=28.48 | Chg30d=+5.13% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+91.3% | GrowthRev=+40.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +69% (up=12, down=1)