SFNC Stock Analysis: Simmons First National | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 3.348m USD | 12M Return: 21.1% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 34.1M
EPS Trend: 26.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -79.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) is a bank holding company headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas, that operates primarily through its subsidiary, Simmons Bank. Founded in 1903, the company provides a full suite of retail and commercial banking products to individuals and businesses, including deposit accounts, a wide range of loan products (consumer, real estate, commercial, agricultural, equipment, warehouse, and SBA lending), and ancillary services such as credit cards, trust and fiduciary services, investments, insurance, treasury management, brokerage, and digital banking platforms.
The company maintains a regional banking footprint spanning six states across the South-Central U.S.-Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. As a regional bank, SFNCs business model is anchored in gathering deposits and originating loans to generate net interest income, supplemented by non-interest fee revenue from services such as wealth management, treasury management, and brokerage.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Commercial real estate loan portfolio faces credit risk
- Deposit growth and loan demand in Mid-South expansion markets
| Net Income: -349.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.37 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 615.8% < 20% (prev -1.32k%; Δ 1.93k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 456.0m > Net Income -349.5m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 76.98 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (145.8m) vs 12m ago 15.37% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 13.51% > 18% (prev 51.44%; Δ -37.93% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 2.22% > 50% (prev 5.32%; Δ -3.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.09 > 6 (EBIT TTM -489.6m / Interest Expense TTM 448.7m) |
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 3.56b - Total Current Liabilities 46.2m) / Total Assets 24.8b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 937.3m / Total Assets 24.8b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -489.6m / Avg Total Assets 25.7b) |
| D: 0.16 (Book Value of Equity 3.48b / Total Liabilities 21.3b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.10 = BB |
| DSRI: 2.13 (Receivables 103.0m/120.4m, Revenue 570.3m/1.42b) |
| GMI: 3.81 (GM 51.44% / 13.51%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.83 / AQ_t-1 0.86) |
| SGI: 0.40 (Revenue 570.3m / 1.42b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI -349.5m - CFO 456.0m) / TA 24.8b) |
| Beneish M = -0.00 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 22.97 with a total of 1,150,333 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.59%, over one month by +1.32%, over three months by +8.73% and over the past year by +21.10%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.30 (which is 2.9% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Simmons First National has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.71. Therefore, it is recommended to hold SFNC.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 25 | 8.8% |
P/E Forward = 9.5238
P/S = 30.1405
P/B = 0.9587
P/EG = 3.8253
Revenue TTM = 570.3m USD
EBIT TTM = -489.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -436.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 620.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 46.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.30b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -2.16b USD (calculated: Debt 1.30b - CCE 3.45b)
Enterprise Value = 1.19b USD (3.35b + Debt 1.30b - CCE 3.45b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.09 (Ebit TTM -489.6m / Interest Expense TTM 448.7m)
EV/FCF = 2.83x (Enterprise Value 1.19b / FCF TTM 421.7m)
FCF Yield = 35.35% (FCF TTM 421.7m / Enterprise Value 1.19b)
FCF Margin = 73.96% (FCF TTM 421.7m / Revenue TTM 570.3m)
Net Margin = -61.28% (Net Income TTM -349.5m / Revenue TTM 570.3m)
Gross Margin = 13.51% ((Revenue TTM 570.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 493.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 64.99% (prev 65.33%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.05 (Enterprise Value 1.19b / Total Assets 24.8b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 34.53% (Interest Expense 448.7m / Debt 1.30b)
Taxrate = 20.03% (16.7m / 83.4m)
NOPAT = -391.6m (EBIT -489.6m * (1 - 20.03%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 76.98 (Total Current Assets 3.56b / Total Current Liabilities 46.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.37 (Debt 1.30b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.48b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.93 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -2.16b / EBITDA -436.9m)
Debt / FCF = -5.11 (Net Debt -2.16b / FCF TTM 421.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.42b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.36% (Net Income -349.5m / Total Assets 24.8b)
RoE = -10.21% (Net Income TTM -349.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.42b)
RoCE = -12.11% (EBIT -489.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.42b + L.T.Debt 620.0m))
RoIC = -1.58% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -391.6m / Invested Capital 24.7b)
WACC = 14.15% (E(3.35b)/V(4.65b) * Re(8.93%) + D(1.30b)/V(4.65b) * Rd(34.53%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 8.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 85.49 | Cagr: 6.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 61.53% ; FCFF base≈395.2m ; Y1≈453.0m ; Y5≈666.7m
[DCF] Fair Price = 48.96 (EV 4.92b - Net Debt -2.16b = Equity 7.07b / Shares 144.4m; r=14.15% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 26.89 | EPS CAGR: 3.94% | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -79.56 | Revenue CAGR: -31.12% | SUE: 0.27 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.53 | Chg30d=-1.23% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.05 | Chg30d=-0.89% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+18.4% | GrowthRev=+10.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.20 | Chg30d=+0.31% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+7.4% | GrowthRev=+4.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)