NBTB Stock Analysis: NBT Bancorp | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.676m USD | 12M Return: 25.3% | US6287781024 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Consumer Loans, Wealth Management, Insurance
Total Rating 47
Safety 64
Buy Signal -0.19
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +6.1
Market Cap: 2.68B
Avg Turnover: 15.8M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility28.8%
VaR 5th Pctl4.43%
VaR vs Median-6.15%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.90
Rel. Str. IBD72.1
Rel. Str. Peer Group64.8
Character TTM
Beta0.553
Beta Downside0.547
Hurst Exponent0.439
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD25.67%
CAGR/Max DD0.85
CAGR/Mean DD1.90
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of NBTB over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.9, "2021-12": 0.86, "2022-03": 0.9, "2022-06": 0.88, "2022-09": 0.9, "2022-12": 0.86, "2023-03": 0.88, "2023-06": 0.8, "2023-09": 0.84, "2023-12": 0.72, "2024-03": 0.68, "2024-06": 0.69, "2024-09": 0.8, "2024-12": 0.77, "2025-03": 0.77, "2025-06": 0.44, "2025-09": 1.05, "2025-12": 1.05, "2026-03": 0.97, "2026-06": 1.01,
EPS CAGR: 4.97%
EPS Trend: 41.2%
Last SUE: -0.27
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of NBTB over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 121.838, 2021-12: 129.462, 2022-03: 126.476, 2022-06: 132.382, 2022-09: 135.837, 2022-12: 142.306, 2023-03: 144.746, 2023-06: 151.943, 2023-09: 176.761, 2023-12: 188.899, 2024-03: 191.776, 2024-06: 193.283, 2024-09: 201.444, 2024-12: 199.486, 2025-03: 201.197, 2025-06: 224.02, 2025-09: 238.774, 2025-12: 238.248, 2026-03: 232.782, 2026-06: 235.488,
Rev. CAGR: 15.64%
Rev. Trend: 98.3%
Last SUE: 0.72
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan -0.8% 19
Feb -0.6% 17
Mar -5.1% 9
Apr +0.2% 2
May +0.6% 10
Jun -0.4% 5
Jul +1.1% 20
Aug -3.5% 23
Sep -2.9% 44
Oct +1.0% 0
Nov +5.0% 27
Dec -0.1% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: NBTB NBT Bancorp

NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) is a U.S. financial holding company that provides personal and commercial banking, retail banking, and wealth management services through its Banking, Retirement Plan Administration, and All Other segments. Its offerings span deposit products (checking, savings, money market, and CDs), a broad loan portfolio (consumer, mortgage, commercial, agricultural, and indirect auto loans), trust and investment services, insurance products, retirement plan recordkeeping, and digital banking channels. Founded in 1856 and headquartered in Norwich, New York, the company operates in upstate New York, northeastern Pennsylvania, southern New Hampshire, western Massachusetts, Vermont, southern Maine, and central and northwestern Connecticut, serving retail, commercial, and municipal customers.

As a mid-cap regional bank, NBTB operates a traditional community banking model, generating the majority of revenue from net interest income on its loan and deposit activities, supplemented by fee-based wealth management, insurance, and retirement administration services. Its geographic footprint across northern New England and the northeastern U.S. reflects a community-focused lending approach typical of regional banks, which tend to compete on local relationships rather than scale.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin trends on Fed rate path
  • Commercial real estate loan concentration in Northeast markets
  • Wealth management and retirement plan fees expand
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 214.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.38 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -13.68% < 20% (prev -1.56k%; Δ 1.55k% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 261.7m > Net Income 214.2m
Net Debt (284.0m) to EBITDA (301.5m): 0.94 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.59 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.4m) vs 12m ago 11.13% < -2%
Gross Margin: 76.57% > 18% (prev 71.28%; Δ 5.29% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 5.87% > 50% (prev 5.16%; Δ 0.71% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.35 > 6 (EBIT TTM 277.3m / Interest Expense TTM 206.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.46
A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 187.2m - Total Current Liabilities 316.4m) / Total Assets 16.2b
B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 1.26b / Total Assets 16.2b)
C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 277.3m / Avg Total Assets 16.1b)
D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 1.94b / Total Liabilities 14.3b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.46 = B
What is the price of NBTB shares?

As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 51.57 with a total of 388,751 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.12%, over one month by +1.14%, over three months by +5.51% and over the past year by +25.33%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 49.90 (which is 3.2% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).

Is NBTB a buy, sell or hold?

NBT Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NBTB.

  • StrongBuy: 3
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 3
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NBTB price?
Analysts Target Price 56.8 10.2%
NBT Bancorp (NBTB) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 20 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.68b (2.68b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.5328
P/E Forward = 13.4048
P/S = 3.6978
P/B = 1.375
P/EG = 2.6616
Revenue TTM = 945.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 277.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 301.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 154.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 316.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 471.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 284.0m USD (calculated: Debt 471.2m - CCE 187.2m)
Enterprise Value = 2.96b USD (2.68b + Debt 471.2m - CCE 187.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.35 (Ebit TTM 277.3m / Interest Expense TTM 206.0m)
EV/FCF = 12.05x (Enterprise Value 2.96b / FCF TTM 245.6m)
FCF Yield = 8.30% (FCF TTM 245.6m / Enterprise Value 2.96b)
FCF Margin = 25.98% (FCF TTM 245.6m / Revenue TTM 945.3m)
Net Margin = 22.65% (Net Income TTM 214.2m / Revenue TTM 945.3m)
Gross Margin = 76.57% ((Revenue TTM 945.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 221.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 76.67% (prev 76.86%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.18 (Enterprise Value 2.96b / Total Assets 16.2b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 43.72% (Interest Expense 206.0m / Debt 471.2m)
Taxrate = 22.77% (63.2m / 277.3m)
NOPAT = 214.2m (EBIT 277.3m * (1 - 22.77%))
Current Ratio = 0.59 (Total Current Assets 187.2m / Total Current Liabilities 316.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.24 (Debt 471.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.94b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.94 (Net Debt 284.0m / EBITDA 301.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.16 (Net Debt 284.0m / FCF TTM 245.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.33% (Net Income 214.2m / Total Assets 16.2b)
RoE = 11.26% (Net Income TTM 214.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.90b)
RoCE = 13.48% (EBIT 277.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.90b + L.T.Debt 154.8m))
RoIC = 1.32% (NOPAT 214.2m / Invested Capital 16.2b)
WACC = 11.80% (E(2.68b)/V(3.15b) * Re(7.93%) + D(471.2m)/V(3.15b) * Rd(43.72%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 7.93% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 76.85 | Cagr: 4.55%
[DCF] Terminal Value 67.66% ; FCFF base≈220.1m ; Y1≈252.3m ; Y5≈371.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 61.21 (EV 3.46b - Net Debt 284.0m = Equity 3.18b / Shares 52.0m; r=11.80% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 41.18 | EPS CAGR: 4.97% | SUE: -0.27 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.27 | Revenue CAGR: 15.64% | SUE: 0.72 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.09 | Chg30d=+0.53% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=7
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.17 | Chg30d=-0.55% | Revisions=+38% | GrowthEPS=+9.3% | GrowthRev=+8.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.54 | Chg30d=+1.05% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+8.8% | GrowthRev=+5.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40% (up=9, down=3)