MSFT Stock Analysis: Microsoft | NASDAQ

Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.834.542m USD | 12M Return: -23.5% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Productivity Software, Cloud Computing, Gaming Consoles, Operating
Total Rating 55
Safety 78
Buy Signal -0.96
Software - Infrastructure
Industry Rotation: +9.0
Market Cap: 2,835B
Avg Turnover: 13.7B
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility26.5%
VaR 5th Pctl4.61%
VaR vs Median5.69%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.99
Rel. Str. IBD9.4
Rel. Str. Peer Group19.7
Character TTM
Beta1.020
Beta Downside1.135
Hurst Exponent0.533
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD34.50%
CAGR/Max DD0.17
CAGR/Mean DD0.64
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MSFT over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 2.17, "2021-09": 2.71, "2021-12": 2.48, "2022-03": 2.22, "2022-06": 2.23, "2022-09": 2.35, "2022-12": 2.2, "2023-03": 2.45, "2023-06": 2.69, "2023-09": 2.99, "2023-12": 2.93, "2024-03": 2.94, "2024-06": 2.95, "2024-09": 3.3, "2024-12": 3.23, "2025-03": 3.46, "2025-06": 3.65, "2025-09": 3.72, "2025-12": 5.16, "2026-03": 4.27,
EPS CAGR: 19.60%
EPS Trend: 98.1%
Last SUE: 0.45
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MSFT over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 46152, 2021-09: 45317, 2021-12: 51728, 2022-03: 49360, 2022-06: 51865, 2022-09: 50122, 2022-12: 52747, 2023-03: 52857, 2023-06: 56189, 2023-09: 56517, 2023-12: 62020, 2024-03: 61858, 2024-06: 64727, 2024-09: 65585, 2024-12: 69632, 2025-03: 70066, 2025-06: 76441, 2025-09: 77673, 2025-12: 81273, 2026-03: 82886,
Rev. CAGR: 15.78%
Rev. Trend: 99.9%
Last SUE: 1.81
Qual. Beats: 1

Warnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan +1.0% 22
Feb -3.2% 45
Mar -1.9% 15
Apr +4.6% 40
May +1.9% 6
Jun +1.8% 14
Jul +1.0% 9
Aug -0.8% 11
Sep -3.3% 49
Oct +0.1% 8
Nov +2.1% 21
Dec -1.2% 38

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MSFT Microsoft

Microsoft Corporation develops and sells software, services, devices, and solutions globally through three reporting segments: Productivity and Business Processes (Microsoft 365, LinkedIn, Dynamics), Intelligent Cloud (Azure, GitHub, server products), and Personal Computing (Windows OEM, Surface, Xbox). The company distributes through OEMs, resellers, distributors, and online/retail channels, and is pursuing strategic AI partnerships with Mayo Clinic for healthcare and Global Objects for generative AI world models. Founded in 1975 and headquartered in Redmond, Washington, Microsoft trades on the NASDAQ under the ticker MSFT.

Classified in the GICS Systems Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector, Microsoft reflects the broader enterprise software industrys transition from perpetual licensing to subscription and cloud-based delivery models, with its Azure platform positioning it among the leading infrastructure-as-a-service providers competing in the public cloud market.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Azure revenue growth accelerates on AI workload demand
  • Surging AI capex spending pressures near-term operating margins
  • Activision Blizzard acquisition expands gaming segment revenue
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 7.0
Net Income: 125b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.83 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 12.15% < 20% (prev 15.72%; Δ -3.57% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.25 > 3% & CFO 170b > Net Income 125b
Net Debt (63.9b) to EBITDA (201b): 0.32 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.28 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (7.45b) vs 12m ago -0.21% < -2%
Gross Margin: 68.31% > 18% (prev 69.07%; Δ -0.77% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 50.65% > 50% (prev 47.99%; Δ 2.65% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 55.65 > 6 (EBIT TTM 157b / Interest Expense TTM 2.83b)
Altman Z'' 5.02
A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 175b - Total Current Liabilities 137b) / Total Assets 694b
B: 0.44 (Retained Earnings 303b / Total Assets 694b)
C: 0.25 (EBIT TTM 157b / Avg Total Assets 628b)
D: 1.48 (Book Value of Equity 414b / Total Liabilities 280b)
Altman-Z'' = 5.02 = AAA
Beneish M -2.99
DSRI: 0.99 (Receivables 60.0b/51.7b, Revenue 318b/270b)
GMI: 1.01 (GM 69.07% / 68.31%)
AQI: 0.87 (AQ_t 0.30 / AQ_t-1 0.35)
SGI: 1.18 (Revenue 318b / 270b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 125b - CFO 170b) / TA 694b)
Beneish M = -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of MSFT shares?

As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 389.10 with a total of 27,753,671 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.28%, over one month by +5.57%, over three months by -8.21% and over the past year by -23.47%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 370.50 (which is 4.8% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).

Is MSFT a buy, sell or hold?

Microsoft has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.59. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MSFT.

  • StrongBuy: 41
  • Buy: 15
  • Hold: 5
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MSFT price?
Analysts Target Price 556.8 43.1%
Microsoft (MSFT) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 25 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 2835b (2835b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 23.2529
P/E Forward = 20.0803
P/S = 8.906
P/B = 6.9977
P/EG = 1.2039
Revenue TTM = 318b USD
EBIT TTM = 157b USD
EBITDA TTM = 201b USD
Long Term Debt = 31.4b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 18.4b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 142b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 16.7b
Net Debt = 63.9b USD (calculated: Debt 142b - CCE 78.3b)
Enterprise Value = 2898b USD (2835b + Debt 142b - CCE 78.3b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 55.65 (Ebit TTM 157b / Interest Expense TTM 2.83b)
EV/FCF = 39.75x (Enterprise Value 2898b / FCF TTM 72.9b)
FCF Yield = 2.52% (FCF TTM 72.9b / Enterprise Value 2898b)
FCF Margin = 22.91% (FCF TTM 72.9b / Revenue TTM 318b)
Net Margin = 39.34% (Net Income TTM 125b / Revenue TTM 318b)
Gross Margin = 68.31% ((Revenue TTM 318b - Cost of Revenue TTM 101b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 67.63% (prev 68.04%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.18 (Enterprise Value 2898b / Total Assets 694b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.99% (Interest Expense 2.83b / Debt 142b)
Taxrate = 18.96% (29.3b / 155b)
NOPAT = 128b (EBIT 157b * (1 - 18.96%))
Current Ratio = 1.28 (Total Current Assets 175b / Total Current Liabilities 137b)
Debt / Equity = 0.34 (Debt 142b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 414b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.32 (Net Debt 63.9b / EBITDA 201b)
Debt / FCF = 0.88 (Net Debt 63.9b / FCF TTM 72.9b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 378b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 19.93% (Net Income 125b / Total Assets 694b)
RoE = 33.13% (Net Income TTM 125b / Total Stockholder Equity 378b)
RoCE = 38.43% (EBIT 157b / Capital Employed (Equity 378b + L.T.Debt 31.4b))
RoIC = 22.77% (NOPAT 128b / Invested Capital 560b)
WACC = 9.19% (E(2835b)/V(2977b) * Re(9.57%) + D(142b)/V(2977b) * Rd(1.99%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -80.18 | Cagr: -0.14%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.25% ; FCFF base≈71.5b ; Y1≈74.8b ; Y5≈86.2b
[DCF] Fair Price = 147.7 (EV 1161b - Net Debt 63.9b = Equity 1097b / Shares 7.43b; r=9.19% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 5.12% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 98.14 | EPS CAGR: 19.60% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.93 | Revenue CAGR: 15.78% | SUE: 1.81 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=4.62 | Chg30d=+0.05% | Revisions=+19% | Analysts=26
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=16.83 | Chg30d=+0.20% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+23.4% | GrowthRev=+17.0%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=19.38 | Chg30d=+0.16% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+15.2% | GrowthRev=+16.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +26% (up=13, down=7)