MSBI Stock Analysis: Midland States Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 672m USD | 12M Return: 101.7% | US5977421057 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.54M
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -51.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) is a U.S.-based financial holding company that operates primarily through its subsidiary, Midland States Bank, serving individuals, businesses, municipalities, and other entities. Founded in 1881 and headquartered in Effingham, Illinois, the company is listed on NASDAQ and is classified within the Regional Banks sub-industry of the Financials sector. Regional banks like MSBI typically operate under a community banking model, emphasizing relationship-driven lending and local deposit gathering within defined geographic markets.
The company reports its operations across two segments: Banking and Wealth Management. The Banking segment generates the majority of revenue through interest-earning assets, including commercial loans, commercial real estate loans (covering property types such as owner-occupied offices, retail centers, multifamily properties, and farmland), construction and land development loans, residential real estate loans (first and second mortgages plus home equity lines of credit), and commercial equipment leasing. This diversified loan portfolio is characteristic of mid-sized regional banks, which balance commercial, real estate, and consumer exposures to manage credit risk and interest rate sensitivity.
The Wealth Management segment complements the banking franchise by offering trust and wealth services, including financial and estate planning, trustee and custodial services, investment management, tax and insurance planning, business planning, corporate retirement plan consulting and administration, and retail brokerage. The company also provides standard depository products such as checking, savings, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and sweep accounts. Banks operating in this segment typically benefit from fee-based income streams that are less correlated with interest rate cycles than traditional lending revenue, providing some diversification to the overall earnings mix.
- Net interest margin compression pressures profitability as deposit costs rise
- Commercial real estate loan portfolio credit quality faces heightened scrutiny
- Wealth Management segment drives fee income diversification
| Net Income: 43.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.79 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -841.3% < 20% (prev -1.45k%; Δ 608.6% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 119.4m > Net Income 43.0m |
| Net Debt (-1.60b) to EBITDA (69.2m): -23.14 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.35 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (21.1m) vs 12m ago -3.42% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.93% > 18% (prev 18.26%; Δ 45.67% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 6.42% > 50% (prev 5.34%; Δ 1.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.45 > 6 (EBIT TTM 58.0m / Interest Expense TTM 128.0m) |
| A: -0.56 (Total Current Assets 1.99b - Total Current Liabilities 5.71b) / Total Assets 6.70b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 107.0m / Total Assets 6.70b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 58.0m / Avg Total Assets 6.90b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 569.7m / Total Liabilities 6.13b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.44 = D |
| DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 23.7m/356.8m, Revenue 442.9m/379.4m) |
| GMI: 0.29 (GM 18.26% / 63.93%) |
| AQI: 0.76 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.91) |
| SGI: 1.17 (Revenue 442.9m / 379.4m) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 43.0m - CFO 119.4m) / TA 6.70b) |
| Beneish M = -4.44 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 33.26 with a total of 428,013 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.83%, over one month by +1.68%, over three months by +10.09% and over the past year by +101.66%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 31.60 (which is 5% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Midland States Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold MSBI.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 33.3 | -0% |
P/E Trailing = 20.8968
P/E Forward = 8.2169
P/S = 2.349
P/B = 1.4861
P/EG = 1.4086
Revenue TTM = 442.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 58.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 69.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 285.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.64m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 355.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 10.3m
Net Debt = -1.60b USD (calculated: Debt 355.2m - CCE 1.96b)
Enterprise Value = 672.2m USD (floored to Market Cap, CCE > MCap+Debt)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.45 (Ebit TTM 58.0m / Interest Expense TTM 128.0m)
EV/FCF = 5.78x (Enterprise Value 672.2m / FCF TTM 116.4m)
FCF Yield = 17.31% (FCF TTM 116.4m / Enterprise Value 672.2m)
FCF Margin = 26.27% (FCF TTM 116.4m / Revenue TTM 442.9m)
Net Margin = 9.71% (Net Income TTM 43.0m / Revenue TTM 442.9m)
Gross Margin = 63.93% ((Revenue TTM 442.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 159.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 68.37% (prev 68.92%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 672.2m / Total Assets 6.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 36.03% (Interest Expense 128.0m / Debt 355.2m)
Taxrate = 25.78% (14.9m / 58.0m)
NOPAT = 43.0m (EBIT 58.0m * (1 - 25.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.35 (Total Current Assets 1.99b / Total Current Liabilities 5.71b)
Debt / Equity = 0.62 (Debt 355.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 569.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = -23.14 (Net Debt -1.60b / EBITDA 69.2m)
Debt / FCF = -13.76 (Net Debt -1.60b / FCF TTM 116.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 569.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.62% (Net Income 43.0m / Total Assets 6.70b)
RoE = 7.55% (Net Income TTM 43.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 569.5m)
RoCE = 6.78% (EBIT 58.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 569.5m + L.T.Debt 285.0m))
RoIC = 4.43% (NOPAT 43.0m / Invested Capital 971.2m)
WACC = 14.54% (E(672.2m)/V(1.03b) * Re(8.09%) + D(355.2m)/V(1.03b) * Rd(36.03%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -52.52 | Cagr: -1.47%
[DCF] Terminal Value 53.71% ; FCFF base≈141.6m ; Y1≈124.2m ; Y5≈100.3m
[DCF] Fair Price = 116.0 (EV 806.8m - Net Debt -1.60b = Equity 2.41b / Shares 20.8m; r=14.54% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 0.04 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -51.44 | Revenue CAGR: -6.50% | SUE: 0.38 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+62% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.37 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=+57% | GrowthEPS=+98.0% | GrowthRev=+1.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.38 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=+0.5% | GrowthRev=+0.7%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +82% (up=14, down=0)