MPB Stock Analysis: Mid Penn Bancorp | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 929m USD | 12M Return: 26.3% | US59540G1076 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Deposit Accounts, Commercial Loans, Wealth Management, Insurance Coverage
Total Rating 40
Safety 36
Buy Signal -0.03
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +6.1
Market Cap: 929M
Avg Turnover: 3.32M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility25.7%
VaR 5th Pctl4.26%
VaR vs Median0.58%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.90
Rel. Str. IBD68.7
Rel. Str. Peer Group58.3
Character TTM
Beta0.409
Beta Downside0.298
Hurst Exponent0.469
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD26.80%
CAGR/Max DD0.96
CAGR/Mean DD3.08
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of MPB over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.43, "2021-12": 0.89, "2022-03": 0.76, "2022-06": 0.77, "2022-09": 0.97, "2022-12": 0.99, "2023-03": 0.72, "2023-06": 0.68, "2023-09": 0.57, "2023-12": 0.73, "2024-03": 0.64, "2024-06": 0.68, "2024-09": 0.75, "2024-12": 0.71, "2025-03": 0.72, "2025-06": 0.7, "2025-09": 0.77, "2025-12": 0.83, "2026-03": 0.64, "2026-06": 0.87,
EPS CAGR: 4.18%
EPS Trend: 68.6%
Last SUE: 0.76
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of MPB over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 34.867, 2021-12: 37.778, 2022-03: 42.881, 2022-06: 42.894, 2022-09: 48.508, 2022-12: 52.967, 2023-03: 54.058, 2023-06: 61.393, 2023-09: 68.14, 2023-12: 70.792, 2024-03: 73.494, 2024-06: 76.016, 2024-09: 78.448, 2024-12: 78.754, 2025-03: 76.278, 2025-06: 85.542, 2025-09: 94.021, 2025-12: 92.417, 2026-03: 77.593, 2026-06: 107.068,
Rev. CAGR: 15.73%
Rev. Trend: 98.1%
Last SUE: 0.82
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +0.5% 17
Feb -1.6% 20
Mar -2.0% 24
Apr +1.3% 8
May +0.6% 8
Jun +0.6% 10
Jul +5.1% 28
Aug +0.8% 17
Sep -2.4% 31
Oct -0.4% 11
Nov +8.3% 41
Dec -0.8% 13

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: MPB Mid Penn Bancorp

Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ: MPB) is the bank holding company for Mid Penn Bank, a regional commercial bank serving individuals, businesses, non-profits, and government entities in Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Founded in 1868 and headquartered in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, the company operates as a community-oriented financial institution under the U.S. bank holding company structure common among regional banks.

The companys deposit offerings span traditional retail products, including checking accounts, savings accounts, money market accounts, certificates of deposit, and individual retirement accounts. On the lending side, Mid Penn provides a diversified portfolio of mortgage, home equity, commercial, consumer, construction, agricultural, SBA, and government loans, reflecting the broad credit mix typical of community banks that serve both retail and small-to-mid-sized business customers in their local markets.

In addition to core banking services, the company generates fee-based income through trust, wealth management, retail investment, and personal and business insurance services, along with private banking and digital banking tools such as online bill payment, cash management, and debit and credit card products. These non-interest income lines are an important component of the business model for regional banks, helping diversify revenue beyond net interest margin.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin expands on rising Fed funds rate
  • Commercial real estate loan portfolio faces credit quality risks
  • Acquisition strategy drives branch network and asset growth
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 68.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.51 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1.37k% < 20% (prev -1.55k%; Δ 181.8% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 98.8m > Net Income 68.1m
Net Debt (-788.8m) to EBITDA (100.1m): -7.88 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.17 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (23.4m) vs 12m ago 21.05% < -2%
Gross Margin: 66.21% > 18% (prev 59.00%; Δ 7.21% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 5.53% > 50% (prev 5.02%; Δ 0.51% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.72 > 6 (EBIT TTM 89.3m / Interest Expense TTM 123.7m)
Altman Z'' -4.37
A: -0.72 (Total Current Assets 1.01b - Total Current Liabilities 6.10b) / Total Assets 7.06b
B: 0.03 (Retained Earnings 238.2m / Total Assets 7.06b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 89.3m / Avg Total Assets 6.71b)
D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 901.9m / Total Liabilities 6.16b)
Altman-Z'' = -4.37 = D
Beneish M -3.04
DSRI: 1.01 (Receivables 33.4m/28.5m, Revenue 371.1m/319.0m)
GMI: 0.89 (GM 59.00% / 66.21%)
AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.91)
SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 371.1m / 319.0m)
TATA: -0.00 (NI 68.1m - CFO 98.8m) / TA 7.06b)
Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of MPB shares?

As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 36.31 with a total of 102,634 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.71%, over one month by -1.84%, over three months by +6.94% and over the past year by +26.33%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 35.30 (which is 2.8% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is MPB a buy, sell or hold?

Mid Penn Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.33. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MPB.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 0
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the MPB price?
Analysts Target Price 40.3 11.1%
Mid Penn Bancorp (MPB) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 23 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 928.5m (928.5m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 12.7257
P/E Forward = 11.0619
P/S = 3.5236
P/B = 1.0368
P/EG = 12.6612
Revenue TTM = 371.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 89.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 100.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 60.0k USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 137.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 175.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 19.1m
Net Debt = -788.8m USD (calculated: Debt 175.8m - CCE 964.6m)
Enterprise Value = 139.7m USD (928.5m + Debt 175.8m - CCE 964.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.72 (Ebit TTM 89.3m / Interest Expense TTM 123.7m)
EV/FCF = 1.51x (Enterprise Value 139.7m / FCF TTM 92.4m)
FCF Yield = 66.15% (FCF TTM 92.4m / Enterprise Value 139.7m)
FCF Margin = 24.91% (FCF TTM 92.4m / Revenue TTM 371.1m)
Net Margin = 18.36% (Net Income TTM 68.1m / Revenue TTM 371.1m)
Gross Margin = 66.21% ((Revenue TTM 371.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 125.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.17% (prev 60.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.02 (Enterprise Value 139.7m / Total Assets 7.06b)
 Interest Expense / Debt = 70.37% (Interest Expense 123.7m / Debt 175.8m)
 Taxrate = 24.42% (22.0m / 90.2m)
NOPAT = 67.5m (EBIT 89.3m * (1 - 24.42%))
Current Ratio = 0.17 (Total Current Assets 1.01b / Total Current Liabilities 6.10b)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 175.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 901.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -7.88 (Net Debt -788.8m / EBITDA 100.1m)
Debt / FCF = -8.53 (Net Debt -788.8m / FCF TTM 92.4m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 849.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.02% (Net Income 68.1m / Total Assets 7.06b)
RoE = 8.02% (Net Income TTM 68.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 849.9m)
RoCE = 10.51% (EBIT 89.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 849.9m + L.T.Debt 60.0k))
RoIC = 6.26% (NOPAT 67.5m / Invested Capital 1.08b)
WACC = 6.24% (E(928.5m)/V(1.10b) * Re(7.42%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 7.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.51 | Cagr: 16.51%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈75.7m ; Y1≈86.8m ; Y5≈127.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 107.0 (EV 1.92b - Net Debt -788.8m = Equity 2.71b / Shares 25.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 68.60 | EPS CAGR: 4.18% | SUE: 0.76 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.10 | Revenue CAGR: 15.73% | SUE: 0.82 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.91 | Chg30d=+10.30% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.35 | Chg30d=+7.14% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+10.9% | GrowthRev=+31.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=3.86 | Chg30d=+6.15% | Revisions=+40% | GrowthEPS=+15.1% | GrowthRev=+9.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=6, down=0)