KSPI Stock Analysis: Joint Stock Kaspi.kz | NASDAQ
Software - Infrastructure | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 18.533m USD | 12M Return: 21.6% | US48581R2058 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 58.5M
EPS Trend: 72.1%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 5.8 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Joint Stock Company Kaspi.kz (KSPI) operates a super app combining payments, marketplace, and fintech services for consumers and merchants in Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Ukraine. The company runs three segments: Payments, which facilitates consumer-to-merchant and peer-to-peer transactions and supports merchant operations such as invoicing and turnover monitoring; Marketplace, which connects online and offline merchants with consumers through m-commerce, e-Commerce, and Kaspi Travel; and Fintech, which offers buy-now-pay-later, consumer finance, savings, and merchant finance products. The business also extends into banking, distressed asset management, real estate, e-grocery, classifieds, and data storage and processing. Founded in 2008 and headquartered in Almaty, Kaspi.kz listed on NASDAQ in January 2024 and is classified in the Financials sector under Consumer Finance.
Kaspi.kz is one of the most prominent examples of a super app business model, integrating commerce and financial services within a single platform. Its home market of Kazakhstan is a largely underbanked economy relative to Western Europe, which has supported the rapid adoption of digital payments and consumer finance products offered through the app.
- Kazakhstan base rate hikes boost Fintech net interest margins
- Marketplace GMV accelerates on e-commerce and travel expansion
- Payments transaction volume growth outpaces Kazakhstan retail spending
| Net Income: 1042b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.28 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -103.4% < 20% (prev 59.02%; Δ -162.4% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 1147b > Net Income 1042b |
| Net Debt (-1341b) to EBITDA (1610b): -0.83 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (190.0m) vs 12m ago -0.83% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.50% > 18% (prev 62.54%; Δ 7.95% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 39.35% > 50% (prev 31.53%; Δ 7.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.55 > 6 (EBIT TTM 1610b / Interest Expense TTM 1037b) |
| A: -0.37 (Total Current Assets 3209b - Total Current Liabilities 7706b) / Total Assets 12057b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 2702b / Total Assets 12057b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 1610b / Avg Total Assets 11053b) |
| D: 0.28 (Book Value of Equity 2639b / Total Liabilities 9327b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.44 = B |
| DSRI: 0.86 (Receivables 7558b/6437b, Revenue 4349b/3168b) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 62.54% / 70.50%) |
| AQI: 8.65 (AQ_t 0.67 / AQ_t-1 0.08) |
| SGI: 1.37 (Revenue 4349b / 3168b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 1042b - CFO 1147b) / TA 12057b) |
| Beneish M = 1.55 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 95.67 with a total of 408,216 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.91%, over one month by -10.10%, over three months by +12.57% and over the past year by +21.60%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 87.60 (which is 8.4% or 2.8 ATR below the current price).
Joint Stock Kaspi.kz has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.50. Therefore, it is recommended to buy KSPI.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 109.8 | 14.8% |
Market Cap KZT = 8189b (18.5b USD * 441.85998535156 USD.KZT)
P/E Trailing = 8.0737
P/S = 1.9593
P/B = 3.2413
Revenue TTM = 4349b KZT
EBIT TTM = 1610b KZT
EBITDA TTM = 1610b KZT
Long Term Debt = 612b KZT (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 605b KZT (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1232b KZT (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 21.6b
Net Debt = -1341b KZT (calculated: Debt 1232b - CCE 2573b)
Enterprise Value = 6849b KZT (8189b + Debt 1232b - CCE 2573b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.55 (Ebit TTM 1610b / Interest Expense TTM 1037b)
EV/FCF = 7.19x (Enterprise Value 6849b / FCF TTM 953b)
FCF Yield = 13.91% (FCF TTM 953b / Enterprise Value 6849b)
FCF Margin = 21.91% (FCF TTM 953b / Revenue TTM 4349b)
Net Margin = 23.96% (Net Income TTM 1042b / Revenue TTM 4349b)
Gross Margin = 70.50% ((Revenue TTM 4349b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1283b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 69.28% (prev 70.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.57 (Enterprise Value 6849b / Total Assets 12057b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 84.13% (Interest Expense 1037b / Debt 1232b)
Taxrate = 21.20% (280b / 1323b)
NOPAT = 1269b (EBIT 1610b * (1 - 21.20%))
Current Ratio = 0.42 (Total Current Assets 3209b / Total Current Liabilities 7706b)
Debt / Equity = 0.47 (Debt 1232b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2639b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.83 (Net Debt -1341b / EBITDA 1610b)
Debt / FCF = -1.41 (Net Debt -1341b / FCF TTM 953b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2522b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.43% (Net Income 1042b / Total Assets 12057b)
RoE = 41.33% (Net Income TTM 1042b / Total Stockholder Equity 2522b)
RoCE = 51.37% (EBIT 1610b / Capital Employed (Equity 2522b + L.T.Debt 612b))
RoIC = 11.48% (NOPAT 1269b / Invested Capital 11049b)
WACC = 8.13% (E(8189b)/V(9421b) * Re(9.35%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 9.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -43.62 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈838b ; Y1≈961b ; Y5≈1414b
[DCF] Fair Price = 119k (EV 21274b - Net Debt -1341b = Equity 22615b / Shares 190.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
[DCF] Fair Price = 119k (out of range, set to none)
EPS Correlation: 72.06 | EPS CAGR: 24.97% | SUE: 0.00 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.42 | Revenue CAGR: 42.90% | SUE: -0.45 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1420.40 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5972.76 | Chg30d=+3.76% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+6.8% | GrowthRev=+17.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6629.91 | Chg30d=-0.83% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+11.0% | GrowthRev=+17.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -38% (up=1, down=4)