HFWA Stock Analysis: Heritage Financial | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 1.249m USD | 12M Return: 32% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Loans, Deposit Accounts, Residential Mortgages, Online Banking
Total Rating 47
Safety 59
Buy Signal -1.37
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: -5.9
Market Cap: 1.25B
Avg Turnover: 11.6M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility31.2%
VaR 5th Pctl4.98%
VaR vs Median-3.06%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.98
Rel. Str. IBD73.8
Rel. Str. Peer Group48.8
Character TTM
Beta0.747
Beta Downside0.728
Hurst Exponent0.492
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD22.44%
CAGR/Max DD0.98
CAGR/Mean DD2.45
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of HFWA over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-06": 0.9, "2021-09": 0.58, "2021-12": 0.55, "2022-03": 0.56, "2022-06": 0.52, "2022-09": 0.59, "2022-12": 0.64, "2023-03": 0.58, "2023-06": 0.48, "2023-09": 0.51, "2023-12": 0.44, "2024-03": 0.16, "2024-06": 0.41, "2024-09": 0.33, "2024-12": 0.34, "2025-03": 0.4, "2025-06": 0.53, "2025-09": 0.56, "2025-12": 0.66, "2026-03": 0.59, "2026-06": 0.57,
EPS CAGR: 8.65%
EPS Trend: 33.4%
Last SUE: 0.46
Qual. Beats: 0
Revenue Revenue of HFWA over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-06: 64.307, 2021-09: 61.27, 2021-12: 59.427, 2022-03: 57.132, 2022-06: 58.748, 2022-09: 68.563, 2022-12: 72.605, 2023-03: 74.923, 2023-06: 77.352, 2023-09: 79.738, 2023-12: 71.115, 2024-03: 71.453, 2024-06: 81.828, 2024-09: 81.654, 2024-12: 82.25, 2025-03: 81.269, 2025-06: 80.017, 2025-09: 87.833, 2025-12: 86.849, 2026-03: 99.37, 2026-06: 62.214,
Rev. CAGR: 5.65%
Rev. Trend: 92.8%
Last SUE: -0.80
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution
Fakeout
Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 10.5 years of data

Jan -0.9% 14
Feb -0.8% 0
Mar -2.6% 28
Apr -2.6% 30
May -0.8% 11
Jun +2.9% 27
Jul -1.1% 6
Aug +0.9% 8
Sep -1.6% 9
Oct +0.8% 19
Nov +7.5% 36
Dec -0.3% 8

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: HFWA Heritage Financial

Heritage Financial Corporation (NASDAQ: HFWA) is a bank holding company headquartered in Olympia, Washington, that operates through its subsidiary, Heritage Bank. Founded in 1927, the company provides a range of banking and financial services to small and medium-sized businesses and their owners across the United States.

Its deposit offerings include noninterest and interest-bearing demand deposits, money market accounts, savings accounts, personal checking accounts, and certificates of deposit. On the lending side, Heritage Bank provides commercial business loans (including lines of credit and equipment financing), real estate construction and land development loans, residential real estate loans, multifamily and commercial construction loans, U.S. SBA-guaranteed loans, and consumer loans. The company also offers investment advisory services, online and mobile banking with mobile deposit, Visa debit cards, and related digital banking tools.

As a regional bank within the Financials sector, Heritage Financial focuses on relationship-based community banking, with a particular emphasis on SBA-guaranteed lending, which is a common risk-mitigated growth channel for community banks serving the small business market. The company adopted its current name in 1998.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin compresses as deposit costs outpace loan yields
  • CRE and construction loan growth drives net interest income
  • Pacific Northwest regional concentration exposes bank to local economy weakness
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 3.0
Net Income: 77.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.00 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -12.09% < 20% (prev -1.51k%; Δ 1.50k% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 89.5m > Net Income 77.9m
Net Debt (86.2m) to EBITDA (49.0m): 1.76 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.76 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (40.4m) vs 12m ago 16.96% < -2%
Gross Margin: 74.64% > 18% (prev 68.06%; Δ 6.59% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 4.34% > 50% (prev 4.60%; Δ -0.26% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 47.2m / Interest Expense TTM 87.0m)
Altman Z'' 0.34
A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 125.6m - Total Current Liabilities 166.2m) / Total Assets 8.43b
B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 439.8m / Total Assets 8.43b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 47.2m / Avg Total Assets 7.75b)
D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.11b / Total Liabilities 7.32b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.34 = B
Beneish M -2.84
DSRI: 1.20 (Receivables 23.1m/18.6m, Revenue 336.3m/325.2m)
GMI: 0.91 (GM 68.06% / 74.64%)
AQI: 1.12 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.87)
SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 336.3m / 325.2m)
TATA: -0.00 (NI 77.9m - CFO 89.5m) / TA 8.43b)
Beneish M = -2.84 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of HFWA shares?

As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 29.80 with a total of 487,157 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.49%, over one month by +1.36%, over three months by +9.96% and over the past year by +31.95%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.80 (which is 3.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is HFWA a buy, sell or hold?

Heritage Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.50. Therefore, it is recommended to hold HFWA.

  • StrongBuy: 1
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 4
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the HFWA price?
Analysts Target Price 31.4 5.4%
Heritage Financial (HFWA) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 25 July 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.25b (1.25b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 14.7756
P/E Forward = 12.3305
P/S = 4.7012
P/B = 1.115
P/EG = 2.125
Revenue TTM = 336.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 47.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 49.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 42.4m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 166.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 188.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 86.2m USD (calculated: Debt 188.7m - CCE 102.6m)
Enterprise Value = 1.33b USD (1.25b + Debt 188.7m - CCE 102.6m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.54 (Ebit TTM 47.2m / Interest Expense TTM 87.0m)
EV/FCF = 16.63x (Enterprise Value 1.33b / FCF TTM 80.2m)
FCF Yield = 6.01% (FCF TTM 80.2m / Enterprise Value 1.33b)
FCF Margin = 23.86% (FCF TTM 80.2m / Revenue TTM 336.3m)
Net Margin = 23.17% (Net Income TTM 77.9m / Revenue TTM 336.3m)
Gross Margin = 74.64% ((Revenue TTM 336.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 85.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 67.17% (prev 79.44%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.16 (Enterprise Value 1.33b / Total Assets 8.43b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 46.07% (Interest Expense 87.0m / Debt 188.7m)
Taxrate = 14.50% (13.2m / 91.1m)
NOPAT = 40.3m (EBIT 47.2m * (1 - 14.50%))
Current Ratio = 0.76 (Total Current Assets 125.6m / Total Current Liabilities 166.2m)
Debt / Equity = 0.17 (Debt 188.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.11b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.76 (Net Debt 86.2m / EBITDA 49.0m)
Debt / FCF = 1.07 (Net Debt 86.2m / FCF TTM 80.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.01% (Net Income 77.9m / Total Assets 8.43b)
RoE = 7.69% (Net Income TTM 77.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.01b)
RoCE = 4.47% (EBIT 47.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.01b + L.T.Debt 42.4m))
RoIC = 0.48% (NOPAT 40.3m / Invested Capital 8.41b)
WACC = 12.65% (E(1.25b)/V(1.44b) * Re(8.61%) + D(188.7m)/V(1.44b) * Rd(46.07%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 8.61% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 62.19 | Cagr: 6.24%
[DCF] Terminal Value 65.35% ; FCFF base≈75.0m ; Y1≈86.0m ; Y5≈126.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 24.04 (EV 1.08b - Net Debt 86.2m = Equity 991.1m / Shares 41.2m; r=12.65% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 33.42 | EPS CAGR: 8.65% | SUE: 0.46 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 92.76 | Revenue CAGR: 5.65% | SUE: -0.80 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-67% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.39 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+6.6% | GrowthRev=+39.0%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.80 | Chg30d=+0.06% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=+17.1% | GrowthRev=+8.6%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -86% (up=0, down=18)