HBNC Stock Analysis: Horizon Bancorp | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 985m USD | 12M Return: 24.2% | US4404071049 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 9.31M
EPS Trend: 87.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: -75.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Horizon Bancorp (HBNC) is a community-oriented bank holding company that operates Horizon Bank, serving both individual and corporate customers across Indiana and Michigan. Its core business spans standard retail deposit products (checking, savings, money market, CDs) alongside a diversified lending portfolio that includes commercial loans, residential mortgages, mortgage warehouse lending, consumer loans, home equity products, SBA loans, and specialty financing such as medical practice and franchise lending.
Beyond traditional banking, the company generates fee-based income through wealth and trust services (investment management, corporate and individual trust, real estate investment trusts), treasury and payment services (merchant processing, ACH, remote deposit, positive pay), and insurance and retirement offerings including IRAs and estate planning.
As a regional bank operating under a community banking model, HBNC concentrates its branch network within a defined geographic footprint and emphasizes relationship-driven lending to local businesses, households, and municipalities. Founded in 1873 and headquartered in Michigan City, Indiana, the company has been listed on the NASDAQ since its 2001 IPO and falls within the Regional Banks sub-industry of the financials sector.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed cuts rates
- Mortgage warehouse lending revenue declines with lower origination volume
- Commercial real estate credit losses rise in Indiana and Michigan markets
| Net Income: -144.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.29 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -4.69k% < 20% (prev -1.49k%; Δ -3.20k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 98.4m > Net Income -144.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 0.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (51.3m) vs 12m ago 16.51% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -12.57% > 18% (prev 55.94%; Δ -68.51% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 1.34% > 50% (prev 4.84%; Δ -3.50% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -1.72 > 6 (EBIT TTM -188.9m / Interest Expense TTM 109.7m) |
| A: -0.68 (Total Current Assets 1.16b - Total Current Liabilities 5.63b) / Total Assets 6.57b |
| B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 289.6m / Total Assets 6.57b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -188.9m / Avg Total Assets 7.11b) |
| D: 0.12 (Book Value of Equity 726.2m / Total Liabilities 5.85b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -4.37 = D |
| DSRI: 2.97 (Receivables 30.4m/39.7m, Revenue 95.4m/370.6m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.81 / AQ_t-1 0.96) |
| SGI: 0.26 (Revenue 95.4m / 370.6m) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI -144.0m - CFO 98.4m) / TA 6.57b) |
| Beneish M = -2.04 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 19.28 with a total of 692,721 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.03%, over one month by -1.38%, over three months by -1.76% and over the past year by +24.19%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 18.70 (which is 3% or 1.6 ATR below the current price).
Horizon Bancorp has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HBNC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 22.9 | 18.8% |
P/E Forward = 11.0497
P/S = 3.7581
P/B = 1.3695
P/EG = 0.804
Revenue TTM = 95.4m USD
EBIT TTM = -188.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = -176.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 379.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 223.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 379.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -740.5m USD (calculated: Debt 379.1m - CCE 1.12b)
Enterprise Value = 244.3m USD (984.8m + Debt 379.1m - CCE 1.12b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -1.72 (Ebit TTM -188.9m / Interest Expense TTM 109.7m)
EV/FCF = 2.54x (Enterprise Value 244.3m / FCF TTM 96.0m)
FCF Yield = 39.31% (FCF TTM 96.0m / Enterprise Value 244.3m)
FCF Margin = 100.6% (FCF TTM 96.0m / Revenue TTM 95.4m)
Net Margin = -150.9% (Net Income TTM -144.0m / Revenue TTM 95.4m)
Gross Margin = -12.57% ((Revenue TTM 95.4m - Cost of Revenue TTM 107.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.20% (prev 74.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.04 (Enterprise Value 244.3m / Total Assets 6.57b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 28.94% (Interest Expense 109.7m / Debt 379.1m)
Taxrate = 18.98% (5.84m / 30.7m)
NOPAT = -153.1m (EBIT -188.9m * (1 - 18.98%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 0.21 (Total Current Assets 1.16b / Total Current Liabilities 5.63b)
Debt / Equity = 0.52 (Debt 379.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 726.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.21 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -740.5m / EBITDA -176.0m)
Debt / FCF = -7.71 (Net Debt -740.5m / FCF TTM 96.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 693.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.02% (Net Income -144.0m / Total Assets 6.57b)
RoE = -20.76% (Net Income TTM -144.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 693.6m)
RoCE = -17.61% (EBIT -188.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 693.6m + L.T.Debt 379.1m))
RoIC = -13.21% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -153.1m / Invested Capital 1.16b)
WACC = 12.83% (E(984.8m)/V(1.36b) * Re(8.75%) + D(379.1m)/V(1.36b) * Rd(28.94%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 86.95 | Cagr: 7.20%
[DCF] Terminal Value 64.88% ; FCFF base≈62.8m ; Y1≈72.0m ; Y5≈106.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 31.68 (EV 886.2m - Net Debt -740.5m = Equity 1.63b / Shares 51.3m; r=12.83% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 87.02 | EPS CAGR: 41.09% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -75.80 | Revenue CAGR: -43.58% | SUE: 0.18 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.54 | Chg30d=+0.37% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.13 | Chg30d=+1.24% | Revisions=+17% | GrowthEPS=-32.7% | GrowthRev=+8.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.23 | Chg30d=+0.45% | Revisions=+29% | GrowthEPS=+4.9% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +31% (up=7, down=3)