FRME Stock Analysis: First Merchants | NASDAQ

Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 2.553m USD | 12M Return: 8.4% | US3208171096 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Commercial Banking, Consumer Lending, Wealth Management, Treasury Management
Total Rating 16
Safety 33
Buy Signal -0.63
Banks - Regional
Industry Rotation: +6.1
Market Cap: 2.55B
Avg Turnover: 17.9M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility27.8%
VaR 5th Pctl4.53%
VaR vs Median-1.26%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio0.28
Rel. Str. IBD43.6
Rel. Str. Peer Group21.3
Character TTM
Beta0.658
Beta Downside0.720
Hurst Exponent0.521
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD23.94%
CAGR/Max DD0.76
CAGR/Mean DD2.00
EPS (Earnings per Share) EPS (Earnings per Share) of FRME over the last years for every Quarter: "2021-09": 0.98, "2021-12": 0.89, "2022-03": 0.91, "2022-06": 1.01, "2022-09": 1.12, "2022-12": 1.19, "2023-03": 1.07, "2023-06": 1.02, "2023-09": 0.94, "2023-12": 0.87, "2024-03": 0.85, "2024-06": 0.68, "2024-09": 0.95, "2024-12": 1, "2025-03": 0.94, "2025-06": 0.98, "2025-09": 0.99, "2025-12": 0.98, "2026-03": 1.03, "2026-06": 0.74,
EPS CAGR: 0.69%
EPS Trend: 8.5%
Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: -1
Revenue Revenue of FRME over the last years for every Quarter: 2021-09: 142.049, 2021-12: 135.84, 2022-03: 135.437, 2022-06: 169.423, 2022-09: 192.955, 2022-12: 215.132, 2023-03: 231.395, 2023-06: 247.684, 2023-09: 256.975, 2023-12: 263.434, 2024-03: 262.538, 2024-06: 267.715, 2024-09: 265.949, 2024-12: 257.401, 2025-03: 252.566, 2025-06: 261.028, 2025-09: 267.572, 2025-12: 269.775, 2026-03: 253.298, 2026-06: 298,
Rev. CAGR: 2.76%
Rev. Trend: 72.7%
Last SUE: 0.70
Qual. Beats: 0

Warnings

Below Avwap Earnings

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +0.8% 19
Feb -0.7% 17
Mar -4.1% 22
Apr -1.8% 11
May -1.6% 28
Jun +0.3% 10
Jul +0.5% 10
Aug -2.4% 24
Sep -1.9% 27
Oct +1.4% 15
Nov +2.8% 15
Dec +0.7% 2

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: FRME First Merchants

First Merchants Corporation (NASDAQ: FRME) is a U.S. financial holding company headquartered in Muncie, Indiana, that operates primarily through its subsidiary, First Merchants Bank. Founded in 1893, the company provides commercial and consumer banking services-including deposit accounts, debit and credit cards, mortgage, agricultural, and treasury management lending-across Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan counties. It also offers wealth management, brokerage, investment advisory, private banking, and fiduciary estate services. Classified as a Mid Cap regional bank, First Merchants combines traditional community-based relationship banking with electronic and mobile delivery channels to serve retail customers and small-to-mid-sized businesses across the Midwest.

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Net interest margin compresses on Fed rate cuts
  • Commercial loan growth slows across Indiana and Ohio markets
  • Deposit costs rise as competition for funding intensifies
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 2.0
Net Income: 186.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.08 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1.17k% < 20% (prev -1.37k%; Δ 193.1% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 314.9m > Net Income 186.0m
Net Debt (-2.30b) to EBITDA (235.7m): -9.78 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.24 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (62.6m) vs 12m ago 8.31% < -2%
Gross Margin: 58.82% > 18% (prev 59.67%; Δ -0.85% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 5.45% > 50% (prev 5.58%; Δ -0.13% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.52 > 6 (EBIT TTM 206.3m / Interest Expense TTM 399.0m)
Altman Z'' -3.49
A: -0.60 (Total Current Assets 4.09b - Total Current Liabilities 16.9b) / Total Assets 21.3b
B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 1.44b / Total Assets 21.3b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 206.3m / Avg Total Assets 20.0b)
D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 2.70b / Total Liabilities 18.7b)
Altman-Z'' = -3.49 = D
Beneish M -3.04
DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 101.9m/93.3m, Revenue 1.09b/1.04b)
GMI: 1.01 (GM 59.67% / 58.82%)
AQI: 0.84 (AQ_t 0.80 / AQ_t-1 0.95)
SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 1.09b / 1.04b)
TATA: -0.01 (NI 186.0m - CFO 314.9m) / TA 21.3b)
Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA
What is the price of FRME shares?

As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 40.71 with a total of 754,488 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.39%, over one month by -1.18%, over three months by -5.30% and over the past year by +8.44%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 39.70 (which is 2.5% or 1.4 ATR below the current price).

Is FRME a buy, sell or hold?

First Merchants has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FRME.

  • StrongBuy: 2
  • Buy: 2
  • Hold: 2
  • Sell: 0
  • StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the FRME price?
Analysts Target Price 48 17.9%
First Merchants (FRME) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 24 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 2.55b (2.55b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 13.0707
P/E Forward = 11.0742
P/S = 3.9753
P/B = 0.9613
P/EG = 1.395
Revenue TTM = 1.09b USD
EBIT TTM = 206.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 235.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 856.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 103.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.60b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -2.30b USD (calculated: Debt 1.60b - CCE 3.91b)
Enterprise Value = 248.5m USD (2.55b + Debt 1.60b - CCE 3.91b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.52 (Ebit TTM 206.3m / Interest Expense TTM 399.0m)
EV/FCF = 0.79x (Enterprise Value 248.5m / FCF TTM 314.9m)
FCF Yield = 126.7% (FCF TTM 314.9m / Enterprise Value 248.5m)
FCF Margin = 28.93% (FCF TTM 314.9m / Revenue TTM 1.09b)
Net Margin = 17.08% (Net Income TTM 186.0m / Revenue TTM 1.09b)
Gross Margin = 58.82% ((Revenue TTM 1.09b - Cost of Revenue TTM 448.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.73% (prev 59.67%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.01 (Enterprise Value 248.5m / Total Assets 21.3b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 24.88% (Interest Expense 399.0m / Debt 1.60b)
Taxrate = 9.56% (19.6m / 205.6m)
NOPAT = 186.6m (EBIT 206.3m * (1 - 9.56%))
Current Ratio = 0.24 (Total Current Assets 4.09b / Total Current Liabilities 16.9b)
Debt / Equity = 0.59 (Debt 1.60b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.70b)
Debt / EBITDA = -9.78 (Net Debt -2.30b / EBITDA 235.7m)
Debt / FCF = -7.32 (Net Debt -2.30b / FCF TTM 314.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.56b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.93% (Net Income 186.0m / Total Assets 21.3b)
RoE = 7.26% (Net Income TTM 186.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.56b)
RoCE = 6.04% (EBIT 206.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.56b + L.T.Debt 856.2m))
RoIC = 4.13% (NOPAT 186.6m / Invested Capital 4.52b)
WACC = 13.78% (E(2.55b)/V(4.16b) * Re(8.30%) + D(1.60b)/V(4.16b) * Rd(24.88%) * (1-Tc(0.10)))
Discount Rate = 8.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 45.43 | Cagr: 2.44%
[DCF] Terminal Value 62.46% ; FCFF base≈292.8m ; Y1≈335.7m ; Y5≈494.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = 96.72 (EV 3.77b - Net Debt -2.30b = Equity 6.07b / Shares 62.8m; r=13.78% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 8.54 | EPS CAGR: 0.69% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 72.74 | Revenue CAGR: 2.76% | SUE: 0.70 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.04 | Chg30d=-3.10% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.86 | Chg30d=-9.31% | Revisions=-67% | GrowthEPS=-0.7% | GrowthRev=+17.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.48 | Chg30d=-2.71% | Revisions=-12% | GrowthEPS=+16.0% | GrowthRev=+5.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -35% (up=5, down=12)