CAKE Stock Analysis: The Cheesecake Factory | NASDAQ
Restaurants | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 4.771m USD | 12M Return: 95.9% | US1630721017 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 142M
EPS Trend: 97.0%
Qual. Beats: 7
Rev. Trend: 98.8%
Qual. Beats: 3
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (NASDAQ: CAKE) is a Calabasas, California-based restaurant operator and licensor founded in 1972. The company runs and licenses casual-dining establishments across the United States and Canada under multiple brands, including The Cheesecake Factory, North Italia, Flower Child, and Fox Restaurant Concepts. In addition to its restaurant operations, it operates production bakeries that supply cheesecakes and other baked goods to its own locations, international licensees, third-party bakery customers, external foodservice operators, retailers, and distributors. The company has been publicly traded since its 1992 IPO and is classified within the Consumer Discretionary sectors Restaurants sub-industry.
- Same-store sales growth at Cheesecake Factory and North Italia restaurants
- Restaurant margin pressure from food and labor cost inflation
- Consumer discretionary spending weakness pressures casual dining traffic
| Net Income: 178.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.60% < 20% (prev -9.75%; Δ 2.14% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 354.4m > Net Income 178.6m |
| Net Debt (3.40b) to EBITDA (318.6m): 10.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (48.5m) vs 12m ago 0.81% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 46.42% > 18% (prev 60.88%; Δ -14.46% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 120.3% > 50% (prev 116.4%; Δ 3.88% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 22.09 > 6 (EBIT TTM 205.4m / Interest Expense TTM 9.30m) |
| A: -0.09 (Total Current Assets 418.8m - Total Current Liabilities 713.6m) / Total Assets 3.29b |
| B: 0.46 (Retained Earnings 1.50b / Total Assets 3.29b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 205.4m / Avg Total Assets 3.22b) |
| D: 0.19 (Book Value of Equity 519.0m / Total Liabilities 2.78b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.52 = BB |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 114.5m/106.0m, Revenue 3.88b/3.67b) |
| GMI: 1.31 (GM 60.88% / 46.42%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 3.88b / 3.67b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 178.6m - CFO 354.4m) / TA 3.29b) |
| Beneish M = -2.68 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 104.49 with a total of 984,554 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.27%, over one month by -7.93%, over three months by +32.54% and over the past year by +95.94%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 99.60 (which is 4.7% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
The Cheesecake Factory has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.53. Therefore, it is recommended to hold CAKE.
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 2
| Analysts Target Price | 95.8 | -8.3% |
P/E Trailing = 26.2658
P/E Forward = 20.9644
P/S = 1.2304
P/B = 9.2961
P/EG = 1.7487
Revenue TTM = 3.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 205.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 318.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 562.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 172.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.60b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 1.52b
Net Debt = 3.40b USD (calculated: Debt 3.60b - CCE 195.2m)
Enterprise Value = 8.17b USD (4.77b + Debt 3.60b - CCE 195.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 22.09 (Ebit TTM 205.4m / Interest Expense TTM 9.30m)
EV/FCF = 39.62x (Enterprise Value 8.17b / FCF TTM 206.3m)
FCF Yield = 2.52% (FCF TTM 206.3m / Enterprise Value 8.17b)
FCF Margin = 5.32% (FCF TTM 206.3m / Revenue TTM 3.88b)
Net Margin = 4.61% (Net Income TTM 178.6m / Revenue TTM 3.88b)
Gross Margin = 46.42% ((Revenue TTM 3.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.08b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 17.64% (prev 15.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.48 (Enterprise Value 8.17b / Total Assets 3.29b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.26% (Interest Expense 9.30m / Debt 3.60b)
Taxrate = 9.07% (17.8m / 196.4m)
NOPAT = 186.8m (EBIT 205.4m * (1 - 9.07%))
Current Ratio = 0.59 (Total Current Assets 418.8m / Total Current Liabilities 713.6m)
Debt / Equity = 6.94 (Debt 3.60b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 519.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 10.69 (Net Debt 3.40b / EBITDA 318.6m)
Debt / FCF = 16.50 (Net Debt 3.40b / FCF TTM 206.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 460.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.54% (Net Income 178.6m / Total Assets 3.29b)
RoE = 38.83% (Net Income TTM 178.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 460.0m)
RoCE = 20.08% (EBIT 205.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 460.0m + L.T.Debt 562.9m))
RoIC = 7.30% (NOPAT 186.8m / Invested Capital 2.56b)
WACC = 5.09% (E(4.77b)/V(8.37b) * Re(8.75%) + D(3.60b)/V(8.37b) * Rd(0.26%) * (1-Tc(0.09)))
Discount Rate = 8.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -42.84 | Cagr: -0.16%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈176.2m ; Y1≈202.0m ; Y5≈297.2m
[DCF] Fair Price = 21.48 (EV 4.47b - Net Debt 3.40b = Equity 1.07b / Shares 49.8m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 96.98 | EPS CAGR: 19.96% | SUE: 4.0 | # QB: 7
Revenue Correlation: 98.78 | Revenue CAGR: 4.49% | SUE: 3.94 | # QB: 3
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.88 | Chg30d=+3.68% | Revisions=+85% | Analysts=18
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.53 | Chg30d=+0.81% | Revisions=+84% | GrowthEPS=+20.2% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.01 | Chg30d=+1.49% | Revisions=+85% | GrowthEPS=+10.5% | GrowthRev=+7.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +94% (up=50, down=0)