AROW Stock Analysis: Arrow Financial | NASDAQ
Banks - Regional | NASDAQ, USA | Market Cap: 647m USD | 12M Return: 52.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.77M
EPS Trend: 79.8%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 94.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Arrow Financial Corporation is a bank holding company headquartered in Glens Falls, New York, operating since 1851. The company delivers a full suite of commercial and consumer banking services, including demand, savings, and time deposits, alongside a diverse lending portfolio spanning commercial loans, commercial real estate and construction financing, consumer installment and automobile loans, as well as residential mortgages and home equity products. Beyond core banking, Arrow Financial offers fee-based services such as retirement and estate planning, trust administration, employee benefit plan management, and insurance agency services covering group health, life, and property and casualty coverage. As a regional bank holding company listed on NASDAQ under the ticker AROW, it follows the community banking model typical of its GICS sub-industry, combining traditional deposit gathering and lending with wealth management and insurance services to diversify revenue streams within its local market footprint.
- Net interest margin compresses as Fed rate cuts pressure yields
- Commercial real estate loan portfolio poses credit risk in downturn
- Deposit costs rise amid regional bank funding competition
| Net Income: 51.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -280.9% < 20% (prev -1.42k%; Δ 1.14k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 46.5m > Net Income 51.1m |
| Net Debt (9.92m) to EBITDA (70.1m): 0.14 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.04 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (16.4m) vs 12m ago -1.62% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 68.22% > 18% (prev 59.59%; Δ 8.63% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.50% > 50% (prev 5.10%; Δ 0.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.85 > 6 (EBIT TTM 64.6m / Interest Expense TTM 75.6m) |
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 29.1m - Total Current Liabilities 722.4m) / Total Assets 4.52b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 110.8m / Total Assets 4.52b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 64.6m / Avg Total Assets 4.49b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 440.1m / Total Liabilities 4.08b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -0.72 = B |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 40.17 with a total of 96,170 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.71%, over one month by -2.33%, over three months by +10.73% and over the past year by +52.91%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 38.50 (which is 4.2% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Arrow Financial has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.00. Therefore, it is recommended to hold AROW.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 41 | 2.1% |
P/E Trailing = 13.1785
P/E Forward = 13.0039
P/S = 3.8427
P/B = 1.5296
P/EG = 2.8438
Revenue TTM = 246.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 64.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 70.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 24.3m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.15m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 39.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 4.91m
Net Debt = 9.92m USD (calculated: Debt 39.0m - CCE 29.1m)
Enterprise Value = 656.9m USD (646.9m + Debt 39.0m - CCE 29.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.85 (Ebit TTM 64.6m / Interest Expense TTM 75.6m)
EV/FCF = 15.89x (Enterprise Value 656.9m / FCF TTM 41.3m)
FCF Yield = 6.29% (FCF TTM 41.3m / Enterprise Value 656.9m)
FCF Margin = 16.75% (FCF TTM 41.3m / Revenue TTM 246.8m)
Net Margin = 20.72% (Net Income TTM 51.1m / Revenue TTM 246.8m)
Gross Margin = 68.22% ((Revenue TTM 246.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 78.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 70.82% (prev 67.69%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.15 (Enterprise Value 656.9m / Total Assets 4.52b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 193.8% (Interest Expense 75.6m / Debt 39.0m)
Taxrate = 20.86% (13.5m / 64.6m)
NOPAT = 51.1m (EBIT 64.6m * (1 - 20.86%))
Current Ratio = 0.04 (Total Current Assets 29.1m / Total Current Liabilities 722.4m)
Debt / Equity = 0.09 (Debt 39.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 440.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.14 (Net Debt 9.92m / EBITDA 70.1m)
Debt / FCF = 0.24 (Net Debt 9.92m / FCF TTM 41.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 424.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.14% (Net Income 51.1m / Total Assets 4.52b)
RoE = 12.04% (Net Income TTM 51.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 424.5m)
RoCE = 14.39% (EBIT 64.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 424.5m + L.T.Debt 24.3m))
RoIC = 1.13% (NOPAT 51.1m / Invested Capital 4.51b)
WACC = 7.61% (E(646.9m)/V(686.0m) * Re(8.07%) + (debt cost/tax rate unavailable))
Discount Rate = 8.07% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -96.00 | Cagr: -1.59%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈36.2m ; Y1≈41.5m ; Y5≈61.1m
[DCF] Fair Price = 54.99 (EV 918.8m - Net Debt 9.92m = Equity 908.9m / Shares 16.5m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 79.82 | EPS CAGR: 20.27% | SUE: -2.04 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 94.59 | Revenue CAGR: 15.71% | SUE: 0.69 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.97 | Chg30d=+1.39% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=3
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.73 | Chg30d=+0.90% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+36.1% | GrowthRev=+26.2%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=4.33 | Chg30d=+0.77% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+16.1% | GrowthRev=+16.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +17% (up=2, down=1)