NEXI Stock Analysis: Nexi S.p.A | MI
Software - Infrastructure | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 4.865m EUR | 12M Return: -4.6% | IT0005366767 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 20.9M
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 7.4 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Nexi S.p.A. is a payment services provider headquartered in Milan, Italy, operating across Italy, the Nordics and Baltics, Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Poland, and Southeast Europe. Founded in 1939, the company serves banks, SMEs, large international corporations, institutions, and public administrations, offering payment processing and acceptance, POS terminal management, fraud prevention, dispute management, card issuing and management, ATM installation, clearing, and digital banking services. It also provides applications for invoice management, prepaid card reloading, bill payments, and postal payments.
The company is classified within the Application Software sub-industry of the Information Technology sector. As a payment services business, Nexi operates in a sector that sits at the intersection of financial services and software, providing the technology infrastructure that enables electronic transactions between consumers, merchants, and financial institutions.
- ECB rate cuts reduce payment float income
- EU interchange fee caps pressure processing margins
- Merchant volume growth offset by competitive pricing in Nordics
| Net Income: -3.35b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 85.70% < 20% (prev 10.76%; Δ 74.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 1.20b > Net Income -3.35b |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 8.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.23b) vs 12m ago -6.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 41.62% > 18% (prev 66.52%; Δ -24.91% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 28.60% > 50% (prev 20.39%; Δ 8.21% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -11.81 > 6 (EBIT TTM -3.00b / Interest Expense TTM 254.0m) |
| A: 0.28 (Total Current Assets 6.19b - Total Current Liabilities 761.0m) / Total Assets 19.5b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 115.0m / Total Assets 19.5b) |
| C: -0.14 (EBIT TTM -3.00b / Avg Total Assets 22.1b) |
| D: 0.53 (Book Value of Equity 6.80b / Total Liabilities 12.7b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 1.49 = BB |
| DSRI: 0.95 (Receivables 910.0m/760.0m, Revenue 6.33b/5.05b) |
| GMI: 1.60 (GM 66.52% / 41.62%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.66 / AQ_t-1 0.66) |
| SGI: 1.25 (Revenue 6.33b / 5.05b) |
| TATA: -0.23 (NI -3.35b - CFO 1.20b) / TA 19.5b) |
| Beneish M = -2.36 (Cap -4..+1) = BBB |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 4.17 with a total of 3,223,024 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.51%, over one month by -6.13%, over three months by +18.68% and over the past year by -4.55%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 4.00 (which is 4.1% or 1.7 ATR below the current price).
Nexi S.p.A has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Forward = 6.4516
P/S = 0.7695
P/B = 0.7244
P/EG = 0.1311
Revenue TTM = 6.33b EUR
EBIT TTM = -3.00b EUR
EBITDA TTM = -2.11b EUR
Long Term Debt = 3.22b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 761.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.05b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 144.0m
Net Debt = 795.0m EUR (calculated: Debt 6.05b - CCE 5.25b)
Enterprise Value = 5.66b EUR (4.86b + Debt 6.05b - CCE 5.25b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -11.81 (Ebit TTM -3.00b / Interest Expense TTM 254.0m)
EV/FCF = 7.27x (Enterprise Value 5.66b / FCF TTM 779.0m)
FCF Yield = 13.76% (FCF TTM 779.0m / Enterprise Value 5.66b)
FCF Margin = 12.30% (FCF TTM 779.0m / Revenue TTM 6.33b)
Net Margin = -52.87% (Net Income TTM -3.35b / Revenue TTM 6.33b)
Gross Margin = 41.62% ((Revenue TTM 6.33b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.70b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.97% (prev 56.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.29 (Enterprise Value 5.66b / Total Assets 19.5b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.20% (Interest Expense 254.0m / Debt 6.05b)
Taxrate = 25.0% (non-US conservative default 25%)
NOPAT = -2.25b (EBIT -3.00b * (1 - 25.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 8.13 (Total Current Assets 6.19b / Total Current Liabilities 761.0m)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 6.05b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 6.80b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.38 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 795.0m / EBITDA -2.11b)
Debt / FCF = 1.02 (Net Debt 795.0m / FCF TTM 779.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.84b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -15.12% (Net Income -3.35b / Total Assets 19.5b)
RoE = -37.87% (Net Income TTM -3.35b / Total Stockholder Equity 8.84b)
RoCE = -24.88% (EBIT -3.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.84b + L.T.Debt 3.22b))
RoIC = -11.71% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.25b / Invested Capital 19.2b)
WACC = 5.32% (E(4.86b)/V(10.9b) * Re(8.01%) + D(6.05b)/V(10.9b) * Rd(4.20%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -91.31 | Cagr: -4.99%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈621.7m ; Y1≈712.6m ; Y5≈1.05b
[DCF] Fair Price = 12.76 (EV 15.8b - Net Debt 795.0m = Equity 15.0b / Shares 1.17b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
Revenue Correlation: -22.22 | Revenue CAGR: -2.47% | SUE: 2.35 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.00 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions=N/A | Analysts=0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.65 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-18% | GrowthEPS=+5.7% | GrowthRev=+1.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.66 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+2.9% | GrowthRev=+2.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -11% (up=7, down=9)