BPE Stock Analysis: BPER Banca | MI
Banks - Regional | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 29.823m EUR | 12M Return: 61.2% | IT0000066123 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 74.1M
EPS Trend: 41.5%
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 93.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
BPER Banca SpA is an Italian regional bank headquartered in Modena, founded in 1867. It provides a full suite of retail and commercial banking products-including current and savings accounts, loans, mortgages, cards, insurance, and digital banking services-to individuals, businesses, and professionals, primarily in Italy with some international operations.
The company also offers corporate banking services such as financing, leasing, trade-related (import/export) services, and liquidity management, alongside a wealth management division covering portfolio management, financial advisory, insurance investment products, and funds/SICAVs. As a regional bank in the GICS Financials sub-industry, BPER operates with a geographically concentrated business model that pairs traditional branch-based retail banking with growing digital channels and fee-based wealth management income.
- ECB rate cuts compress net interest margins across lending book
- Branch acquisitions and Carige integration boost loan growth targets
- Italian BTP spread widening pressures sovereign bond portfolio valuations
| Net Income: 2.19b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.10 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -1.42k% < 20% (prev -1.19k%; Δ -227.5% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 9.02b > Net Income 2.19b |
| Net Debt (27.5b) to EBITDA (3.60b): 7.65 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.06b) vs 12m ago 42.31% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 87.02% > 18% (prev 81.61%; Δ 5.41% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 5.17% > 50% (prev 5.10%; Δ 0.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.44 > 6 (EBIT TTM 3.35b / Interest Expense TTM 1.37b) |
| A: -0.62 (Total Current Assets 12.4b - Total Current Liabilities 142b) / Total Assets 209b |
| B: 0.01 (Retained Earnings 1.28b / Total Assets 209b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 3.35b / Avg Total Assets 177b) |
| D: 0.08 (Book Value of Equity 15.7b / Total Liabilities 193b) |
| Altman-Z'' = -3.84 = D |
| DSRI: 0.64 (Receivables 243.8m/309.4m, Revenue 9.13b/7.37b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 81.61% / 87.02%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.93 / AQ_t-1 0.93) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 9.13b / 7.37b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 2.19b - CFO 9.02b) / TA 209b) |
| Beneish M = -3.21 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 14.35 with a total of 5,155,274 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.01%, over one month by +0.93%, over three months by +5.73% and over the past year by +61.23%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 13.70 (which is 4.5% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
BPER Banca has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 13.0294
P/E Forward = 5.8275
P/S = 4.2907
P/B = 1.6554
P/EG = 0.6486
Revenue TTM = 9.13b EUR
EBIT TTM = 3.35b EUR
EBITDA TTM = 3.60b EUR
Long Term Debt = 22.0b EUR (estimated: total debt 39.9b - short term 17.9b)
Short Term Debt = 17.9b EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 39.9b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 27.5b EUR (calculated: Debt 39.9b - CCE 12.4b)
Enterprise Value = 57.3b EUR (29.8b + Debt 39.9b - CCE 12.4b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.44 (Ebit TTM 3.35b / Interest Expense TTM 1.37b)
EV/FCF = 6.42x (Enterprise Value 57.3b / FCF TTM 8.93b)
FCF Yield = 15.57% (FCF TTM 8.93b / Enterprise Value 57.3b)
FCF Margin = 97.79% (FCF TTM 8.93b / Revenue TTM 9.13b)
Net Margin = 24.01% (Net Income TTM 2.19b / Revenue TTM 9.13b)
Gross Margin = 87.02% ((Revenue TTM 9.13b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.19b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 94.88%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.27 (Enterprise Value 57.3b / Total Assets 209b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.44% (Interest Expense 1.37b / Debt 39.9b)
Taxrate = 33.11% (1.10b / 3.33b)
NOPAT = 2.24b (EBIT 3.35b * (1 - 33.11%))
Current Ratio = 0.09 (Total Current Assets 12.4b / Total Current Liabilities 142b)
Debt / Equity = 2.54 (Debt 39.9b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 15.7b)
Debt / EBITDA = 7.65 (Net Debt 27.5b / EBITDA 3.60b)
Debt / FCF = 3.08 (Net Debt 27.5b / FCF TTM 8.93b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 15.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.24% (Net Income 2.19b / Total Assets 209b)
RoE = 13.80% (Net Income TTM 2.19b / Total Stockholder Equity 15.9b)
RoCE = 8.84% (EBIT 3.35b / Capital Employed (Equity 15.9b + L.T.Debt 22.0b))
RoIC = 2.66% (NOPAT 2.24b / Invested Capital 84.1b)
WACC = 4.59% (E(29.8b)/V(69.7b) * Re(7.65%) + D(39.9b)/V(69.7b) * Rd(3.44%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 7.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 87.80 | Cagr: 18.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈8.93b ; Y1≈8.96b ; Y5≈9.49b
[DCF] Fair Price = 57.22 (EV 148b - Net Debt 27.5b = Equity 120b / Shares 2.10b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 41.47 | EPS CAGR: 6.24% | SUE: 1.66 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 93.28 | Revenue CAGR: 11.93% | SUE: 0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.29 | Chg30d=+3.57% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.19 | Chg30d=+4.19% | Revisions=+62% | GrowthEPS=-5.1% | GrowthRev=+17.5%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.30 | Chg30d=+1.78% | Revisions=+44% | GrowthEPS=+9.0% | GrowthRev=+1.4%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +67% (up=11, down=1)