AVIO Stock Analysis: Avio S.p.A | MI

Aerospace & Defense | MI, Italy | Market Cap: 1.330m EUR | 12M Return: -38.5% | IT0005119810 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis

Space Launchers, Solid Propulsion, Liquid Propulsion, Tactical Missiles
Total Rating 35
Safety 79
Buy Signal -0.76
Aerospace & Defense
Industry Rotation: -1.8
Market Cap: 1.51B
Avg Turnover: 17.1M
Risk 3d forecast
Volatility36.3%
VaR 5th Pctl5.71%
VaR vs Median-4.55%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio-0.69
Rel. Str. IBD16
Rel. Str. Peer Group27.3
Character TTM
Beta0.396
Beta Downside0.151
Hurst Exponent0.571
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD63.00%
CAGR/Max DD0.92
CAGR/Mean DD3.18

Warnings

Strong Share Dilution
Volatile
Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

Confidence

Seasonality 11.2 years of data

Jan +2.7% 27
Feb +0.1% 2
Mar -0.5% 5
Apr +8.4% 44
May +4.0% 57
Jun -2.9% 47
Jul -3.3% 18
Aug +3.1% 12
Sep -5.5% 42
Oct -2.5% 2
Nov -1.8% 15
Dec +3.6% 32

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: AVIO Avio S.p.A

Avio S.p.A. is an Italian aerospace company founded in 1984 and headquartered in Colleferro, Italy, that designs, develops, produces, and integrates space launchers and propulsion systems for both domestic and international markets. Its operations span solid and liquid propulsion systems for launchers, solid propulsion for tactical missiles, complete light space launchers, satellite attitude control and propulsion technologies, and launch ground infrastructure. The company is one of the few European players with end-to-end capabilities in launcher propulsion, a segment characterized by high barriers to entry due to long development cycles, stringent certification requirements, and a limited number of institutional customers such as national space agencies and the European Space Agency (ESA).

Headlines to Watch Out For
  • Vega C launch cadence recovery drives space launcher revenue growth
  • European defense spending surge expands tactical missile propulsion backlog
  • SpaceX and Rocket Lab pricing pressure threatens European launch market share
Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 5.5
Net Income: 10.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 6.61 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 26.51% < 20% (prev -31.82%; Δ 58.33% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 168.1m > Net Income 10.5m
Net Debt (-130.3m) to EBITDA (34.4m): -3.79 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.25 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (46.2m) vs 12m ago 82.69% < -2%
Gross Margin: 26.98% > 18% (prev 35.10%; Δ -8.12% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 61.32% > 50% (prev 35.88%; Δ 25.44% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 13.56 > 6 (EBIT TTM 14.1m / Interest Expense TTM 1.04m)
Altman Z'' 1.86
A: 0.13 (Total Current Assets 1.12b - Total Current Liabilities 899.7m) / Total Assets 1.67b
B: 0.04 (Retained Earnings 73.4m / Total Assets 1.67b)
C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 14.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.38b)
D: 0.73 (Book Value of Equity 701.4m / Total Liabilities 958.4m)
Altman-Z'' = 1.86 = BBB
Beneish M -2.86
DSRI: 0.10 (Receivables 5.83m/185.8m, Revenue 844.2m/388.5m)
GMI: 1.30 (GM 35.10% / 26.98%)
AQI: 0.67 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.28)
SGI: 2.17 (Revenue 844.2m / 388.5m)
TATA: -0.09 (NI 10.5m - CFO 168.1m) / TA 1.67b)
Beneish M = -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A
What is the price of AVIO shares?

As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 28.98 with a total of 514,484 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.59%, over one month by -5.48%, over three months by +1.76% and over the past year by -38.49%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 27.00 (which is 6.8% or 1.9 ATR below the current price).

Is AVIO a buy, sell or hold?

Avio S.p.A has no consensus analysts rating.

Avio S.p.A (AVIO) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 27 September 2026
Market Cap USD = 1.51b (1.33b EUR * 1.1374752521515 EUR.USD)
P/E Trailing = 60.0208
P/S = 2.2145
P/B = 1.8889
Revenue TTM = 844.2m EUR
EBIT TTM = 14.1m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 34.4m EUR
 Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
 Short Term Debt = 3.28m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 10.1m EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) (leases 9.74m already included)
Net Debt = -130.3m EUR (calculated: Debt 10.1m - CCE 140.5m)
Enterprise Value = 1.20b EUR (1.33b + Debt 10.1m - CCE 140.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.56 (Ebit TTM 14.1m / Interest Expense TTM 1.04m)
EV/FCF = 8.56x (Enterprise Value 1.20b / FCF TTM 140.2m)
FCF Yield = 11.68% (FCF TTM 140.2m / Enterprise Value 1.20b)
FCF Margin = 16.60% (FCF TTM 140.2m / Revenue TTM 844.2m)
Net Margin = 1.24% (Net Income TTM 10.5m / Revenue TTM 844.2m)
Gross Margin = 26.98% ((Revenue TTM 844.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 616.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 18.08% (prev 51.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 1.20b / Total Assets 1.67b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 10.29% (Interest Expense 1.04m / Debt 10.1m)
Taxrate = 7.36% (937k / 12.7m)
NOPAT = 13.1m (EBIT 14.1m * (1 - 7.36%))
Current Ratio = 1.25 (Total Current Assets 1.12b / Total Current Liabilities 899.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 10.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 701.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.79 (Net Debt -130.3m / EBITDA 34.4m)
Debt / FCF = -0.93 (Net Debt -130.3m / FCF TTM 140.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 503.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.76% (Net Income 10.5m / Total Assets 1.67b)
RoE = 2.08% (Net Income TTM 10.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 503.0m)
RoCE = 1.83% (EBIT 14.1m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 1.67b - Current Liab 899.7m))
RoIC = 1.79% (NOPAT 13.1m / Invested Capital 731.7m)
WACC = 7.39% (E(1.33b)/V(1.34b) * Re(7.37%) + D(10.1m)/V(1.34b) * Rd(10.29%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 7.37% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 84.93 | Cagr: 9.59%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈91.8m ; Y1≈105.2m ; Y5≈154.9m
[DCF] Fair Price = 53.31 (EV 2.33b - Net Debt -130.3m = Equity 2.46b / Shares 46.2m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
Revenue Correlation: 98.96 | Revenue CAGR: 31.44% | SUE: 1.36 | # QB: 1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.37 | Chg30d=+26.69% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-11.4% | GrowthRev=+2.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=0.32 | Chg30d=+18.28% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=-13.8% | GrowthRev=+10.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +40% (up=2, down=0)