NESTE Stock Analysis: Neste Oil | HE
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing | HE, Finland | Market Cap: 25.807m EUR | 12M Return: 106.9% | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 38.5M
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: -98.5%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 10.5 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Neste Oyj is a Finnish energy company that produces and markets renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), alongside conventional oil products such as diesel, gasoline, marine fuels, and specialty fuels. The company operates through three segments: Renewable Products, Oil Products, and Marketing & Services, serving customers in Finland, the broader Nordic and Baltic regions, Europe, the United States, and other international markets. In addition to fuels, Neste markets lower-emission products, associated digital services, and electric vehicle charging solutions to consumers, transport providers, aviation, shipping, industrial, agricultural, municipal, and heating fuel customers.
Founded in 1948 and headquartered in Espoo, Finland, the company was renamed from Neste Oil Oyj to Neste Oyj in June 2015, reflecting a strategic shift toward renewable fuels. As a player in the GICS Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry, Nestes business model is distinctive within the traditional refining sector due to its significant investment in renewable drop-in fuels, which are produced from renewable raw materials and designed to replace fossil-based diesel and jet fuel without requiring engine modifications.
- RED III and ReFuelEU Aviation boost renewable diesel demand
- Renewable Products margins hinge on feedstock and biofuel spreads
- Rotterdam and Singapore refinery expansion lifts renewable capacity
| Net Income: 717.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 15.48% < 20% (prev 13.06%; Δ 2.42% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 2.45b > Net Income 717.0m |
| Net Debt (4.50b) to EBITDA (1.80b): 2.50 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.59 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (772.5m) vs 12m ago 0.55% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.67% > 18% (prev 5.38%; Δ 2.29% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 112.2% > 50% (prev 129.6%; Δ -17.41% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.94 > 6 (EBIT TTM 869.0m / Interest Expense TTM 176.0m) |
| A: 0.16 (Total Current Assets 8.03b - Total Current Liabilities 5.06b) / Total Assets 18.1b |
| B: 0.44 (Retained Earnings 7.91b / Total Assets 18.1b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 869.0m / Avg Total Assets 17.1b) |
| D: 0.74 (Book Value of Equity 7.70b / Total Liabilities 10.4b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.63 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.54 (Receivables 2.12b/1.49b, Revenue 19.2b/20.9b) |
| GMI: 0.70 (GM 5.38% / 7.67%) |
| AQI: 0.81 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.07) |
| SGI: 0.92 (Revenue 19.2b / 20.9b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 717.0m - CFO 2.45b) / TA 18.1b) |
| Beneish M = -3.03 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of July 28, 2026, the stock is trading at EUR 29.80 with a total of 1,523,041 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.59%, over one month by +8.01%, over three months by +11.24% and over the past year by +106.89%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 28.20 (which is 5.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
Neste Oil has no consensus analysts rating.
P/E Trailing = 36.1183
P/E Forward = 13.947
P/S = 1.3468
P/B = 3.3119
P/EG = 0.3183
Revenue TTM = 19.2b EUR
EBIT TTM = 869.0m EUR
EBITDA TTM = 1.80b EUR
Long Term Debt = 3.96b EUR (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 509.0m EUR (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 6.14b EUR (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 930.0m
Net Debt = 4.50b EUR (calculated: Debt 6.14b - CCE 1.64b)
Enterprise Value = 30.3b EUR (25.8b + Debt 6.14b - CCE 1.64b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.94 (Ebit TTM 869.0m / Interest Expense TTM 176.0m)
EV/FCF = 19.12x (Enterprise Value 30.3b / FCF TTM 1.58b)
FCF Yield = 5.23% (FCF TTM 1.58b / Enterprise Value 30.3b)
FCF Margin = 8.27% (FCF TTM 1.58b / Revenue TTM 19.2b)
Net Margin = 3.74% (Net Income TTM 717.0m / Revenue TTM 19.2b)
Gross Margin = 7.67% ((Revenue TTM 19.2b - Cost of Revenue TTM 17.7b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 16.75% (prev -1.05%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.68 (Enterprise Value 30.3b / Total Assets 18.1b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.87% (Interest Expense 176.0m / Debt 6.14b)
Taxrate = 22.34% (206.0m / 922.0m)
NOPAT = 674.8m (EBIT 869.0m * (1 - 22.34%))
Current Ratio = 1.59 (Total Current Assets 8.03b / Total Current Liabilities 5.06b)
Debt / Equity = 0.80 (Debt 6.14b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.70b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.50 (Net Debt 4.50b / EBITDA 1.80b)
Debt / FCF = 2.84 (Net Debt 4.50b / FCF TTM 1.58b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 7.36b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.20% (Net Income 717.0m / Total Assets 18.1b)
RoE = 9.75% (Net Income TTM 717.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 7.36b)
RoCE = 7.68% (EBIT 869.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 7.36b + L.T.Debt 3.96b))
RoIC = 5.38% (NOPAT 674.8m / Invested Capital 12.6b)
WACC = 6.90% (E(25.8b)/V(31.9b) * Re(8.01%) + D(6.14b)/V(31.9b) * Rd(2.87%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.01% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -9.58 | Cagr: 0.25%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈1.58b ; Y1≈1.59b ; Y5≈1.69b
[DCF] Fair Price = 28.28 (EV 26.2b - Net Debt 4.50b = Equity 21.7b / Shares 768.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 1.45 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: -98.49 | Revenue CAGR: -7.80% | SUE: 0.34 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-06-30): EPS=1.00 | Chg30d=+9.11% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=11
EPS next Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=+5.62% | Revisions=-40% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.77 | Chg30d=+6.33% | Revisions=+55% | GrowthEPS=+295.9% | GrowthRev=+13.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=2.15 | Chg30d=+6.15% | Revisions=+22% | GrowthEPS=-22.5% | GrowthRev=+11.5%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +32% (up=13, down=6)