CMCL Stock Analysis: Caledonia Mining | AMEX
Gold | AMEX, USA | Market Cap: 462m USD | 12M Return: -28.1% | JE00BF0XVB15 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 4.26M
Qual. Beats: 1
Rev. Trend: 99.0%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc is a Jersey-headquartered precious metals miner whose primary assets and operations are located in Zimbabwe. The company produces gold through its 64%-owned Blanket Mine and holds a 100% interest in the Bilboes Sulphide Project, a development-stage sulphide gold asset, along with the exploration-stage Motapa and Maligreen gold claims. Caledonia was incorporated in 1992 and trades on the AMEX under the ticker CMCL, falling within the GICS Materials sector and Gold sub-industry.
As a gold producer, Caledonias revenue is tied to the volume of gold it mines and the prevailing international gold price, with output sold as refined bullion or doré. Zimbabwe is one of Africas larger gold-producing countries, and companies operating there typically hold long-term mining leases or special grants from the government, which is a key consideration for investors evaluating jurisdictional and regulatory risk.
- Gold prices drive Blanket Mine revenue and operating margins
- Bilboes Sulphide Project capex and development timeline advance
- Zimbabwe currency policy and mining regulations create operational uncertainty
| Net Income: 65.5m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.76 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 66.57% < 20% (prev 16.28%; Δ 50.29% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 82.5m > Net Income 65.5m |
| Net Debt (-54.0m) to EBITDA (138.0m): -0.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 5.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (19.3m) vs 12m ago -0.03% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 52.58% > 18% (prev 47.31%; Δ 5.27% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 59.03% > 50% (prev 54.84%; Δ 4.18% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 17.54 > 6 (EBIT TTM 122.3m / Interest Expense TTM 6.97m) |
| A: 0.33 (Total Current Assets 226.5m - Total Current Liabilities 39.5m) / Total Assets 562.5m |
| B: -0.02 (Retained Earnings -11.4m / Total Assets 562.5m) |
| C: 0.26 (EBIT TTM 122.3m / Avg Total Assets 475.8m) |
| D: 1.23 (Book Value of Equity 293.9m / Total Liabilities 238.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' = 5.13 = AAA |
| DSRI: 0.62 (Receivables 7.74m/9.47m, Revenue 280.9m/213.4m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 47.31% / 52.58%) |
| AQI: 81.69 (AQ_t 0.07 / AQ_t-1 0.00) |
| SGI: 1.32 (Revenue 280.9m / 213.4m) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 65.5m - CFO 82.5m) / TA 562.5m) |
| Beneish M = 44.64 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
As of September 27, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 23.84 with a total of 159,569 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.12%, over one month by -5.73%, over three months by +23.01% and over the past year by -28.09%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 22.40 (which is 6% or 1.5 ATR below the current price).
Caledonia Mining has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMCL.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 42.7 | 79.2% |
P/E Trailing = 6.8395
P/E Forward = 9.5057
P/S = 1.6983
P/B = 1.7738
Revenue TTM = 280.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 122.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 138.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 108.5m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.71m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 117.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 935k
Net Debt = -54.0m USD (calculated: Debt 117.8m - CCE 171.8m)
Enterprise Value = 407.5m USD (461.5m + Debt 117.8m - CCE 171.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 17.54 (Ebit TTM 122.3m / Interest Expense TTM 6.97m)
EV/FCF = 7.79x (Enterprise Value 407.5m / FCF TTM 52.3m)
FCF Yield = 12.83% (FCF TTM 52.3m / Enterprise Value 407.5m)
FCF Margin = 18.62% (FCF TTM 52.3m / Revenue TTM 280.9m)
Net Margin = 23.31% (Net Income TTM 65.5m / Revenue TTM 280.9m)
Gross Margin = 52.58% ((Revenue TTM 280.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 133.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.41% (prev 48.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 407.5m / Total Assets 562.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.92% (Interest Expense 6.97m / Debt 117.8m)
Taxrate = 32.93% (40.1m / 121.8m)
NOPAT = 82.0m (EBIT 122.3m * (1 - 32.93%))
Current Ratio = 5.73 (Total Current Assets 226.5m / Total Current Liabilities 39.5m)
Debt / Equity = 0.40 (Debt 117.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 293.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.39 (Net Debt -54.0m / EBITDA 138.0m)
Debt / FCF = -1.03 (Net Debt -54.0m / FCF TTM 52.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 269.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.76% (Net Income 65.5m / Total Assets 562.5m)
RoE = 24.33% (Net Income TTM 65.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 269.1m)
RoCE = 32.39% (EBIT 122.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 269.1m + L.T.Debt 108.5m))
RoIC = 15.87% (NOPAT 82.0m / Invested Capital 516.6m)
WACC = 8.18% (E(461.5m)/V(579.3m) * Re(9.25%) + D(117.8m)/V(579.3m) * Rd(5.92%) * (1-Tc(0.33)))
Discount Rate = 9.25% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 57.27 | Cagr: 0.30%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈40.0m ; Y1≈45.9m ; Y5≈67.5m
[DCF] Fair Price = 55.31 (EV 1.02b - Net Debt -54.0m = Equity 1.07b / Shares 19.3m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: N/A | EPS CAGR: N/A | SUE: 2.34 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 99.04 | Revenue CAGR: 31.34% | SUE: -0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.39 | Chg30d=+34.48% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.85 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+34.0% | GrowthRev=+14.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=5.11 | Chg30d=+0.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+32.6% | GrowthRev=+10.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=0, down=3)