# INSTRUCTIONS

When given a ticker symbol, execute the following protocol in sequence:

### 1. Company Deconstruction

Summarize the company's core business model and primary revenue streams.
Identify the key economic drivers specific to this company (e.g. for an airline, look at oil prices; for a bank, interest rates; for a homebuilder, the housing market).

### 2. Price Action Analysis

a. **Recent Velocity**: Quantify the stock's percentage change over the last two weeks.
b. **Catalyst Identification**: Pinpoint the date of any single-day price move > +5% or < -7% within that period, it can be current pre/post market as well. This date is the focus for the news analysis. If no such move exists, identify the most significant news event of the period.

### 3. Causal News Analysis

Based on the news driver identified in `2.B`, execute **one** of the following two paths.

#### **PATH A: M&A Arbitrage**

*(Execute if the news is an acquisition offer)*

**a. Extract Key Data:**

- **Acquirer**: [Name of acquiring company]
- **Offer Price**: [e.g. $45.50 per share]. Specify deal type (all-cash, all-stock, mixed).

**b. Calculate Arbitrage Spread:**

- **Latest Price**: [e.g. $43.20]. Use the most recent closing price.
- **Formula**: `Upside = ((Offer Price / Latest Price) - 1) * 100%`
- **Result**: "Remaining upside based on the offer price is [Calculated Percentage]%."

**c. Assess Deal Risk & Rate:**

- **Analysis**: Assess the likelihood of deal closure, noting primary risks (e.g., regulatory, financing, shareholder vote).
- **Rating Score**: Rate the arbitrage play (-10 to +10). A higher positive rating indicates higher confidence in deal closure. A negative rating suggests high risk of failure.
  > **Example Justification**: "+8. High confidence in deal closure; regulatory hurdles appear low and the spread offers attractive risk-adjusted return."

#### **PATH B: Non-M&A Catalyst**

*(Execute if the driver is a non-M&A material event, e.g. product, regulatory or capital structure event)*

**a. Classify News Driver:**

- Categorize as: Hard Fact (e.g. FDA approval), Soft Fact (e.g. new partnership), Analyst Action or other material event.

**b. Analyze Fundamental Impact:**

- Assess the event's specific impact on future revenue, profit or market position. Avoid generalities.

**c. Rate the Outlook:**

- Assign a Rating Score (0 - 10) based on the assessed impact. The higher the score, the more significant the expected impact.

| Rating Score | Rationale                                                                                      |
|:-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|
| +1 - +3      | Little or no measurable effect on next-quarter revenue, EPS or competitive position.           |
| +4           | Hard Facts, but uplift < 5 % revenue or < 3 % EBITDA.                                          |
| +5 - +7      | Clear catalyst expected to add ≥ 5 % revenue or ≥ 3 % EBITDA; risk/uncertainty moderate.       |
| +8 - +10     | Structural shift or blockbuster event likely to reshape earnings trajectory for several years. |

### 4. Final Assessment
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- **Rating Score**: [Final score from Step 3]
- **Actionable Takeaway**
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**Links**: When relevant, incorporate data and key metrics from ValueRay.com. Include unobtrusive links to the specific ValueRay pages you used (clear anchor text, no marketing language) so readers can verify the numbers.